LMT vs NOC: Lockheed Martin vs Northrop Grumman Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Lockheed Martin is the world's largest defense contractor with the F-35 fighter jet and HIMARS missiles as its anchors, while Northrop Grumman has the B-21 Raider bomber and GBSD ICBM as near-monopoly US strategic deterrence programs. Both are high-quality defense companies with different program risks.
LMT vs NOC is the world's most valuable fighter program plus growing missile demand versus monopoly stealth bomber and ICBM modernization — Lockheed wins if F-35 production ramp and HIMARS demand continue; Northrop wins if B-21 and GBSD execute on cost without fixed-price overruns.
LMT holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LMT leads on both 1-year return (+6.65%) and forward P/E quality (17.23x vs 17.92x for NOC), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. LMT leads on both revenue growth (10.50%) and operating margin (11.96%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NOC (+18.62%) than for LMT (+12.25%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want the world's largest defense contractor with diversified revenue across fighters, missiles, and space
- value F-35's 3,300+ planned unit production as a multi-decade revenue and sustainment stream
- believe HIMARS demand from European allies and Pacific partners will sustain elevated missile orders
- prefer a more diversified defense portfolio vs Northrop's concentration in B-21 and GBSD
- want near-monopoly exposure to US strategic deterrence (B-21 bomber, GBSD ICBM)
- believe the B-21 program will be managed to avoid the fixed-price overruns common to new bomber programs
- value Space Force satellite and C4ISR programs as a growing government market for Northrop
- prefer a higher strategic asset concentration vs Lockheed's broader program mix
| Metric | LMT | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.9 | 50.0 |
| AI ranki | #398 | #970 |
| Latest closei | $532.64 | $499.63 |
| 1M returni | -0.15% | -5.95% |
| 3M returni | +3.72% | -3.67% |
| 6M returni | -12.32% | -25.74% |
| 1Y returni | +6.65% | -17.95% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | LMT | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.8K (+8.0%) started 2025-10-16 | $8.34K (-16.6%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $17.68K (+76.8%) started 2021-10-18 | $14.21K (+42.1%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $36.8K (+268.0%) started 2016-10-17 | $30.2K (+202.0%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | LMT | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $130.13B | $77.51B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 20.79 | 17.33 |
| Forward P/Ei | 17.23 | 17.92 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.57 | 1.74 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.91 | 2.15 |
| Analyst targeti | $632.95 | $647.14 |
| Target upsidei | +12.25% | +18.62% |
| Metric | LMT | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.50% | 5.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 443.80% | -5.80% |
| EPS growthi | +443.80% | -5.80% |
| FCF margini | +7.22% | +5.78% |
| Operating margini | 11.96% | 11.60% |
| Profit margini | 8.16% | 10.48% |
| ROIC proxyi | 89.17% | 26.96% |
| Return on equityi | 89.17% | 26.96% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.45% | 1.81% |
| Payout ratioi | 50.31% | 29.88% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.11 | -0.11 |
| Debt/equityi | 234.24 | 95.35 |
| Current ratioi | 1.19 | 1.17 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.97 | 1.01 |
Over the past year, LMT and NOC have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.71), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | LMT | NOC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +7.99% | -16.59% |
| CAGRi | +8.00% | -16.61% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.71% | 27.48% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.25 | -0.69 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.39 | -0.94 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.35% | 38.35% | |
| Current drawdowni | 21.29% | 34.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.84% | 17.36% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.69% | 21.77% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.82% | 6.98% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.30% | 13.55% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +60.33% | +34.19% |
| CAGRi | +9.91% | +6.06% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.17% | 26.00% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.33 | 0.18 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.46 | 0.26 | |
| Max drawdowni | 32.26% | 38.35% | |
| Current drawdowni | 21.29% | 34.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.62% | 11.36% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.35% | 14.25% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.80% | 12.66% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.30% | 13.85% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +186.35% | +161.16% |
| CAGRi | +11.10% | +10.08% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.36% | 25.84% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.37 | 0.33 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.52 | 0.46 | |
| Max drawdowni | 36.67% | 38.35% | |
| Current drawdowni | 21.29% | 34.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.24% | 10.52% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.97% | 13.53% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.76% | 12.66% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.06% | 16.45% |
| Category | LMT | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Lockheed Martin Corporation | Northrop Grumman Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | World's largest defense contractor by revenue with F-35 fighters (the most expensive weapons program ever), missile and fire control (HIMARS, PAC-3 missiles), rotary/mission systems (Black Hawk helicopters), and space systems. | Major US defense contractor with B-21 Raider stealth bomber, Ground Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD) ICBM program, space systems, and cyber and C4ISR electronics. Northrop's space and missile programs are uniquely positioned for great power competition. |
| Investor focus | F-35 production ramp and international orders, missile demand from global conflicts, space segment growth, and cash return to shareholders. | B-21 Raider production ramp and margin improvement (fixed-price contract challenges), GBSD program execution, space segment growth, and shareholder return. |
- F-35 program has 3,300+ planned units across the US and allied nations — a multi-decade production and sustainment revenue stream
- HIMARS and PAC-3 missile systems have seen surging demand from global conflicts and allied nation procurement
- International F-35 sales to Norway, Japan, Singapore, and others are growing the program's revenue base beyond US DOD
- B-21 Raider is the US Air Force's next-generation stealth bomber — a monopoly program for the next 30+ years of manned strategic bombing
- GBSD ICBM modernization is the only new US land-based ICBM program — another long-duration near-monopoly
- Space systems and satellite intelligence are growing with the Space Force and national security satellite demand
- F-35 software delays and engine issues have created program risk and cost growth
- F-35 unit cost reduction has been challenging — the program continues to face production timeline and margin pressure
- US defense budget sequestration risk is a perennial concern for major weapons programs
- B-21 is a fixed-price contract — Northrop bears all cost overrun risk, which has historically been significant for new bomber programs
- GBSD cost overruns have already emerged — fixed-price exposure on two major programs simultaneously is a risk
- Northrop's portfolio is more concentrated in longer-development programs vs Lockheed's more diversified product mix
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