SPCX vs LMT: SpaceX vs Lockheed Martin Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SpaceX is disrupting Lockheed's United Launch Alliance joint venture through lower-cost reusable rockets while building a completely separate satellite broadband business. Lockheed is the established defense prime contractor with the F-35, hypersonic programs, and space systems as its main revenue streams. SpaceX offers commercial space growth; Lockheed offers defense backlog and dividend income.
SPCX vs LMT is a disruptor vs incumbent story in launch services alongside very different core businesses — SpaceX wins if commercial space and Starlink grow into the valuation; Lockheed wins if F-35 internationalization, hypersonics, and defense spending remain strong.
LMT holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SPCX has delivered stronger 3-month price return (+13.36% vs +3.72%), though LMT has the better forward P/E setup (17.23x vs 87.68x for SPCX). On fundamentals, SPCX is growing revenue faster (91.90%), while LMT maintains the higher operating margin (11.96%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SPCX (+58.00%) than for LMT (+12.25%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want disruption exposure to commercial space and satellite broadband at premium valuation
- believe Starship's economics will revolutionize both launch and point-to-point cargo
- prefer growth potential over defense contractor stability and dividends
- are comfortable with post-IPO price discovery and long investment horizons
- want established defense prime contractor revenue with multi-decade program visibility
- value F-35 production and international sales as a durable revenue anchor
- prefer dividend income and buybacks from a profitable, cash-generative defense company
- want defense exposure to NATO rearmament, hypersonics, and missile defense without startup risk
| Metric | SPCX | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 32.3 | 51.9 |
| AI ranki | N/A | #398 |
| Latest closei | $148.62 | $532.64 |
| 1M returni | +3.58% | -0.15% |
| 3M returni | +13.36% | +3.72% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SPCX | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.23K (-7.7%) started 2026-06-12 | $10.8K (+8.0%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $9.23K (-7.7%) started 2026-06-12 | $17.68K (+76.8%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $9.23K (-7.7%) started 2026-06-12 | $36.8K (+268.0%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SPCX | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $1.85T | $130.13B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 20.79 |
| Forward P/Ei | 87.68 | 17.23 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 1.57 |
| EV/Revenuei | 160.10 | 1.91 |
| Analyst targeti | $222.32 | $632.95 |
| Target upsidei | +58.00% | +12.25% |
| Metric | SPCX | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 91.90% | 10.50% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 443.80% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +443.80% |
| FCF margini | N/A | +7.22% |
| Operating margini | -1.80% | 11.96% |
| Profit margini | -35.66% | 8.16% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | 89.17% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | 89.17% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 2.45% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 50.31% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | N/A | 0.11 |
| Debt/equityi | 31.21 | 234.24 |
| Current ratioi | 5.12 | 1.19 |
| Quick ratioi | 4.95 | 0.97 |
Over the past year, SPCX and LMT have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.18), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SPCX | LMT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -7.66% | +7.99% |
| CAGRi | -20.78% | +8.00% | |
| Volatilityi | 83.26% | 28.71% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.08 | 0.25 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.12 | 0.39 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 27.35% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.69% | 21.29% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.74% | 12.84% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.25% | 15.69% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 4.82% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 13.30% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -7.66% | +60.33% |
| CAGRi | -20.78% | +9.91% | |
| Volatilityi | 83.26% | 24.17% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.08 | 0.33 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.12 | 0.46 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 32.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.69% | 21.29% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.74% | 11.62% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.25% | 14.35% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 11.80% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 13.30% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -7.66% | +186.35% |
| CAGRi | -20.78% | +11.10% | |
| Volatilityi | 83.26% | 24.36% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.08 | 0.37 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.12 | 0.52 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 36.67% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.69% | 21.29% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.74% | 10.24% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.25% | 12.97% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 12.76% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 19.06% |
| Category | SPCX | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) | Lockheed Martin Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | Dominant commercial orbital launch provider via Falcon 9, developer of the Starship megarocket, and operator of the Starlink LEO satellite broadband constellation. SpaceX also holds significant NASA and DoD contracts. | Largest US defense contractor, producing F-35 fighter jets, hypersonic missiles, satellite systems, C2BMC missile defense, and next-generation aircraft through its Skunk Works division. Also a 50% owner of United Launch Alliance (ULA). |
| Investor focus | Starlink subscriber and revenue growth, Starship commercialization timeline, launch market share retention, and government payload contract wins. | F-35 production ramp and international sales, hypersonic program development and contracts, missile and air defense backlog, space systems revenue, and capital returns. |
- Falcon 9 reusability gives SpaceX launch costs 5-10x lower than legacy rockets from ULA (Lockheed/Boeing JV)
- Starlink's 7,000+ satellite network generates subscription broadband revenue independent of launch cadence
- Starship's payload capacity, if operational, would dwarf all existing rockets and open new markets
- F-35 program is a decades-long revenue stream across US and allied air forces with high switching costs and maintenance contracts
- Record defense backlog driven by NATO rearmament, hypersonic development, and missile defense programs
- Skunk Works advanced development capability positions LMT for next-generation air dominance programs (NGAD)
- Lockheed and ULA are challenging SpaceX for national security space launch contracts
- Starship regulatory approval from FAA could remain slow, delaying revenue
- High post-IPO valuation requires decades of compounding growth to justify
- ULA is being directly challenged by SpaceX in national security space launch — ULA's Vulcan rocket faces stiff cost competition
- F-35 program cost and schedule overruns risk congressional scrutiny
- Defense budget uncertainty if political pressure leads to procurement reductions
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