NOC vs BA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Northrop Grumman and Boeing both operate in aerospace and defense, but Northrop Grumman is a pure-play defense contractor with stable, government-backed revenue, while Boeing combines a recovering commercial aircraft business working through production and quality challenges with a more diversified defense and space segment.
Northrop Grumman offers stable, predictable defense revenue with less cyclicality, while Boeing offers potential recovery upside tied to normalizing commercial aircraft delivery rates, but with more execution and turnaround risk. Consider whether you prefer Northrop Grumman's defense stability or Boeing's commercial aerospace recovery potential.
NOC holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. NOC leads on both 1-year return (-5.49%) and forward P/E quality (17.92x vs 51.45x for BA), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, BA is growing revenue faster (8.00%), while NOC maintains the higher operating margin (11.60%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BA (+30.60%) than for NOC (+18.62%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want stable, predictable revenue derived from long-term US government and allied defense contracts
- Value Northrop Grumman's strong positioning in space systems and autonomous defense technology
- Prefer less cyclicality than Boeing's commercial aircraft recovery-dependent business
- Are comfortable with revenue growth tied more directly to government defense budget cycles
- Believe Boeing's production quality and delivery rate recovery will continue improving over time
- Want exposure to the long-term structural growth of the duopoly commercial aircraft market
- Are comfortable with elevated execution risk during Boeing's ongoing recovery period
- Value Boeing's large order backlog as a source of multi-year revenue visibility once deliveries normalize
| Metric | NOC | BA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.8 | 40.9 |
| AI ranki | #422 | #1008 |
| Latest closei | $562.36 | $172.65 |
| 1M returni | +11.44% | -8.01% |
| 3M returni | +5.14% | -21.84% |
| 6M returni | -2.95% | -24.62% |
| 1Y returni | -5.49% | -22.69% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NOC | BA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.61K (-3.9%) started 2025-10-29 | $8.08K (-19.2%) started 2025-10-29 |
| 5Y ago | $17.76K (+77.6%) started 2021-11-01 | $8.05K (-19.5%) started 2021-11-01 |
| 10Y ago | $32.52K (+225.2%) started 2016-10-31 | $14.37K (+43.7%) started 2016-10-31 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NOC | BA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $77.51B | $166.33B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.33 | 75.70 |
| Forward P/Ei | 17.92 | 51.45 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.74 | 2.29 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.15 | 2.08 |
| Analyst targeti | $647.14 | $274.85 |
| Target upsidei | +18.62% | +30.60% |
| Metric | NOC | BA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.10% | 8.00% |
| Earnings growthi | -5.80% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | -5.80% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +5.78% | +5.98% |
| Operating margini | 11.60% | 0.00% |
| Profit margini | 10.48% | 2.59% |
| ROIC proxyi | 26.96% | 173.54% |
| Return on equityi | 26.96% | 173.54% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.81% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 30.18% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | -0.11 | 1.21 |
| Debt/equityi | 95.35 | 790.88 |
| Current ratioi | 1.17 | 1.14 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.01 | 0.30 |
Over the past year, NOC and BA have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.27), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NOC | BA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -3.87% | -19.16% |
| CAGRi | -3.87% | -19.19% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.44% | 35.61% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.16 | -0.55 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.22 | -0.78 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.35% | 33.71% | |
| Current drawdowni | 26.78% | 31.53% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.76% | 12.07% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.30% | 14.12% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.98% | 10.69% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.55% | 13.07% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +67.65% | -19.54% |
| CAGRi | +10.91% | -4.26% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.97% | 37.09% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.36 | -0.05 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.51 | -0.07 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.35% | 50.29% | |
| Current drawdowni | 26.78% | 34.67% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.22% | 22.60% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.33% | 25.52% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.66% | 10.69% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.85% | 21.19% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +181.29% | +31.75% |
| CAGRi | +10.90% | +2.80% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.93% | 42.05% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.36 | 0.17 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.51 | 0.25 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.35% | 77.92% | |
| Current drawdowni | 26.78% | 59.88% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.63% | 39.09% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.64% | 45.43% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.66% | 23.85% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.45% | 46.26% |
| Category | NOC | BA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Northrop Grumman Corporation | The Boeing Company |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | A pure-play defense and aerospace contractor focused on autonomous systems, space systems, missile defense, and next-generation military aircraft programs, primarily serving the US government and allied militaries. | A global aerospace company manufacturing commercial airplanes and defense, space, and security systems, currently working through a multi-year recovery from production quality issues and delivery disruptions affecting its commercial aircraft business. |
| Investor focus | Defense contract backlog growth, program execution on major fixed-price and cost-plus contracts, and margin stability across segments. | Commercial aircraft delivery rate recovery, production quality and safety remediation progress, free cash flow generation, and defense segment stability. |
- Highly stable, predictable revenue base derived almost entirely from long-term US government and allied defense contracts
- Strong positioning in strategically important growth areas including space systems and autonomous defense technology
- Large, multi-year contract backlog provides significant revenue visibility
- Duopoly position with Airbus in the large commercial aircraft market provides long-term structural demand tailwinds
- Large order backlog for commercial aircraft provides multi-year revenue visibility once delivery rates normalize
- Diversified defense, space, and services segments provide some stability alongside the commercial aircraft business
- Revenue growth is more directly tied to government defense budget cycles and appropriations than diversified commercial exposure
- Fixed-price development contracts on next-generation programs carry execution and cost overrun risk
- Lacks exposure to the commercial aviation recovery and growth story that Boeing offers
- Recovering from significant production quality issues and regulatory scrutiny that have disrupted commercial aircraft delivery rates
- Free cash flow generation remains pressured while the company works through its recovery and ramps production
- Execution risk remains elevated as the company works to rebuild manufacturing quality and regulatory trust
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