SPCX vs RTX: SpaceX vs Raytheon Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SpaceX is a commercial space disruptor building the world's leading satellite broadband network and orbital launch platform, while Raytheon is a diversified defense and aerospace contractor supplying missiles, engines, and avionics to governments worldwide. SPCX offers growth from commercial space and broadband; RTX offers defense backlog durability and commercial aerospace recovery.
SPCX vs RTX is commercial space disruption and satellite broadband growth versus a defense contractor with strong missile and engine backlogs — SpaceX wins if Starlink and Starship transform the economics of space; RTX wins if sustained defense spending drives missile and aftermarket engine demand.
RTX holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SPCX has delivered stronger 3-month price return (+13.36% vs -3.81%), though RTX has the better forward P/E setup (26.95x vs 87.68x for SPCX). On fundamentals, SPCX is growing revenue faster (91.90%), while RTX maintains the higher operating margin (12.70%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SPCX (+58.00%) than for RTX (+10.92%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want exposure to Starlink satellite broadband and commercial launch dominance
- believe Starship will create entirely new commercial space markets at lower cost
- are comfortable with high post-IPO valuation and long growth runways
- prefer growth-oriented space infrastructure over defense contractor economics
- prefer government defense contracts with multi-year backlog visibility
- value Pratt & Whitney's commercial aerospace aftermarket as a recurring revenue stream
- want defense exposure to NATO rearmament and air defense demand
- are comfortable with defense budget cycles and near-term Pratt & Whitney remediation costs
| Metric | SPCX | RTX |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 32.3 | 53.2 |
| AI ranki | N/A | #300 |
| Latest closei | $148.62 | $186.95 |
| 1M returni | +3.58% | -4.37% |
| 3M returni | +13.36% | -3.81% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SPCX | RTX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.23K (-7.7%) started 2026-06-12 | $11.9K (+19.0%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $9.23K (-7.7%) started 2026-06-12 | $24.39K (+143.9%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $9.23K (-7.7%) started 2026-06-12 | $45.73K (+357.3%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SPCX | RTX |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $1.85T | $285.33B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 37.34 |
| Forward P/Ei | 87.68 | 26.95 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 2.27 |
| EV/Revenuei | 160.10 | 3.40 |
| Analyst targeti | $222.32 | $234.82 |
| Target upsidei | +58.00% | +10.92% |
| Metric | SPCX | RTX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 91.90% | 14.50% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 28.70% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +28.70% |
| FCF margini | N/A | +10.57% |
| Operating margini | -1.80% | 12.70% |
| Profit margini | -35.66% | 8.28% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | 12.27% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | 12.27% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 1.38% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 48.77% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | N/A | 0.29 |
| Debt/equityi | 31.21 | 57.02 |
| Current ratioi | 5.12 | 1.01 |
| Quick ratioi | 4.95 | 0.65 |
Over the past year, SPCX and RTX have moved barely in the same direction (correlation of 0.07), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SPCX | RTX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -7.66% | +19.04% |
| CAGRi | -20.78% | +19.08% | |
| Volatilityi | 83.26% | 25.81% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.08 | 0.63 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.12 | 0.99 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 20.06% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.69% | 17.09% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.74% | 7.15% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.25% | 9.59% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 4.40% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 11.45% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -7.66% | +123.75% |
| CAGRi | -20.78% | +17.50% | |
| Volatilityi | 83.26% | 24.29% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.08 | 0.60 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.12 | 0.87 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 32.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.69% | 17.09% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.74% | 7.27% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.25% | 10.05% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 10.22% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 12.34% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -7.66% | +265.21% |
| CAGRi | -20.78% | +13.83% | |
| Volatilityi | 83.26% | 27.96% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.08 | 0.44 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.12 | 0.64 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 51.98% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.69% | 17.09% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.74% | 9.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.25% | 13.99% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 14.48% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 26.15% |
| Category | SPCX | RTX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) | RTX Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | Rocket launch services (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Starship), Starlink global satellite broadband with 7,000+ satellites, spacecraft manufacturing (Dragon, Starship), and government contracts (NASA, DoD). SpaceX dominates commercial orbital launch with over 90% market share. | Defense and aerospace products including missile systems (Raytheon), jet engines (Pratt & Whitney), avionics, and radar. Raytheon's Patriot missiles, AIM-120 AMRAAMs, and hypersonic programs are core to US and allied defense. |
| Investor focus | Starlink subscriber growth and ARPU, Starship development progress and commercial viability, launch cadence and market share, Starlink's potential to serve enterprise and government broadband markets. | Pratt & Whitney GTF engine aftermarket recovery, missile and air defense demand from NATO and global allies, defense budget trends, and Raytheon's hypersonic and directed energy program pipeline. |
- Starlink is the world's largest and most capable LEO broadband constellation with 7,000+ satellites and millions of subscribers
- Falcon 9 reusability has driven launch costs to a fraction of legacy competitors, giving SpaceX dominant commercial launch market share
- Starship represents a generational leap in launch economics that could enable entirely new markets including point-to-point cargo and lunar transport
- Missile and air defense backlog at multi-decade highs driven by Ukraine conflict and NATO rearmament
- Pratt & Whitney engine aftermarket is a multi-decade recurring revenue stream as the installed base of GTF-powered aircraft grows
- Raytheon is a critical supplier for US and allied missile defense systems with long program lifecycles and high switching costs
- Starship development schedule uncertainty — regulatory and technical delays push revenue timelines
- Post-IPO valuation expectations are extremely high, pricing in decades of growth
- Starlink ARPU pressure if LEO broadband market becomes more competitive
- Pratt & Whitney GTF engine powder metal recall and inspection costs created significant near-term headwinds
- Defense budget uncertainty if US fiscal consolidation reduces near-term procurement
- Pratt & Whitney commercial aerospace recovery depends on airline capex cycles
Compare more than two at a time
This page is a fixed writeup on SPCX and RTX. Our comparison engine is the interactive version: load up to five tickers, switch timeframes, and get the correlation, drawdown, and overlap analysis that a static page can't show.
Add three more names beside SPCX and RTX, mixing stocks and ETFs in the same table — useful when the real question is which of a whole peer group to own.
AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
A scatter plot of forward P/E against return on equity, plus drawdown and 30-day rolling volatility charts, to separate what is cheap from what is merely beaten down.
For ETFs, a top-holdings comparison that exposes hidden overlap between funds. Every comparison exports to CSV for your own spreadsheet work.
Two comparisons a week are free without an account. A 14-day trial removes the limit and adds AI price forecasts, stock rankings, saved watchlists, and the intrinsic value calculator — no credit card required.
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.