MTCH vs BMBL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
MTCH is the dominant online dating company with a diversified multi-brand portfolio led by Tinder and the fast-growing Hinge, while BMBL is a smaller challenger with a differentiated women-first brand but has faced more growth and profitability challenges. Both face industry-wide questions about dating app fatigue among younger users.
MTCH vs BMBL is a comparison of the dominant online dating platform operator against a smaller, differentiated challenger working to establish sustainable growth and profitability.
MTCH holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MTCH has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+30.09% vs +7.57%), though BMBL has the better forward P/E setup (2.88x vs 9.08x for MTCH). MTCH leads on both revenue growth (-1.20%) and operating margin (28.77%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BMBL (+38.07%) than for MTCH (+0.73%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the dominant, diversified online dating market leader
- See Hinge as a key growth driver offsetting Tinder's maturation
- Value strong free cash flow and capital return potential
- Believe Bumble's differentiated brand positioning can drive a turnaround
- See value in its smaller scale offering more room for percentage growth
- Are comfortable with higher execution and competitive risk
| Metric | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 45.3 | 23.5 |
| AI ranki | #760 | #3849 |
| Latest closei | $42.07 | $5.97 |
| 1M returni | +4.34% | +135.04% |
| 3M returni | +3.77% | +93.20% |
| 6M returni | +10.22% | +39.81% |
| 1Y returni | +30.09% | +7.57% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.94K (+29.4%) started 2025-11-03 | $10.87K (+8.7%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $2.82K (-71.8%) started 2021-11-03 | $1.15K (-88.5%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $31.23K (+212.3%) started 2016-11-03 | $849.1 (-91.5%) started 2021-02-11 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $9.7B | $415.22M |
| Trailing P/Ei | 14.64 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 9.08 | 2.88 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.60 | 0.85 |
| Analyst targeti | $41.88 | $3.74 |
| Target upsidei | +0.73% | +38.07% |
| Metric | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -1.20% | -15.20% |
| Earnings growthi | 50.40% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | +50.40% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +26.52% | +21.67% |
| Operating margini | 28.77% | 28.14% |
| Profit margini | 20.17% | -57.96% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | -76.92% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | -76.92% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.92% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 27.66% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.32 | 1.87 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | 74.57 |
| Current ratioi | 1.72 | 1.63 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.56 | 1.39 |
Over the past year, MTCH and BMBL have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.30), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +29.45% | +8.74% |
| CAGRi | +29.55% | +8.77% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.73% | 101.93% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.83 | 0.47 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Max drawdowni | 16.28% | 54.46% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.59% | 0.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.71% | 37.82% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.98% | 40.04% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.37% | 21.77% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.77% | 27.95% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -72.16% | -88.52% |
| CAGRi | -22.57% | -35.16% | |
| Volatilityi | 43.72% | 76.82% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.47 | -0.26 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.65 | -0.43 | |
| Max drawdowni | 82.98% | 95.22% | |
| Current drawdowni | 73.51% | 88.57% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 70.77% | 73.64% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 72.57% | 76.06% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.87% | 30.31% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.58% | 37.98% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +193.12% | -91.51% |
| CAGRi | +11.36% | -35.01% | |
| Volatilityi | 45.54% | 75.21% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.37 | -0.28 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.54 | -0.44 | |
| Max drawdowni | 84.42% | 96.83% | |
| Current drawdowni | 75.75% | 92.43% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 41.42% | 75.83% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 53.57% | 78.80% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.09% | 30.31% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.87% | 37.98% |
| Category | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Match Group, Inc. | Bumble Inc. |
| Sector | Communication Services | Communication Services |
| Industry | Internet Content & Information | Internet Content & Information |
| Core business | Match Group owns a large portfolio of dating apps including Tinder, Hinge, Match.com, and OkCupid, making it the dominant player in the global online dating market by revenue and user base. | Bumble operates the Bumble dating app, known for its women-first messaging approach, along with the Badoo dating app with significant international users, positioning itself as a smaller challenger to Match Group's dominance. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Tinder's user growth and monetization trends (its largest and most mature brand), Hinge's continued rapid growth, and overall payer trends across the portfolio. | Investors track Bumble app user and revenue growth, profitability improvement initiatives, and the company's ability to differentiate against Match Group's larger portfolio. |
- Dominant multi-brand portfolio covering diverse dating app demographics and use cases
- Hinge has emerged as a strong growth driver complementing a maturing Tinder
- Strong free cash flow generation supports buybacks and capital returns
- Differentiated women-first brand positioning resonates with a specific user segment
- Smaller scale provides more room for percentage-based user and revenue growth
- Badoo provides additional international user base diversification
- Tinder, the largest brand, has faced user growth deceleration and competitive pressure
- Online dating fatigue and changing social app usage patterns among younger users
- Regulatory and app store fee dynamics affect monetization economics
- Significantly smaller scale than Match Group limits competitive resources
- Has faced slower growth and profitability challenges relative to expectations
- Intense competitive pressure from Match Group's larger, more diversified portfolio
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