MTCH vs BMBL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
MTCH is the dominant online dating company with a diversified multi-brand portfolio led by Tinder and the fast-growing Hinge, while BMBL is a smaller challenger with a differentiated women-first brand but has faced more growth and profitability challenges. Both face industry-wide questions about dating app fatigue among younger users.
MTCH vs BMBL is a comparison of the dominant online dating platform operator against a smaller, differentiated challenger working to establish sustainable growth and profitability.
MTCH holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MTCH has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+16.44% vs -57.29%), though BMBL has the better forward P/E setup (2.88x vs 9.08x for MTCH). MTCH leads on both revenue growth (-1.20%) and operating margin (28.77%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BMBL (+38.07%) than for MTCH (+0.73%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the dominant, diversified online dating market leader
- See Hinge as a key growth driver offsetting Tinder's maturation
- Value strong free cash flow and capital return potential
- Believe Bumble's differentiated brand positioning can drive a turnaround
- See value in its smaller scale offering more room for percentage growth
- Are comfortable with higher execution and competitive risk
| Metric | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 43.8 | 22.7 |
| AI ranki | #845 | #4011 |
| Latest closei | $43.77 | $2.96 |
| 1M returni | +13.13% | +8.82% |
| 6M returni | +39.08% | -20.86% |
| 1Y returni | +16.44% | -57.29% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.35K (+13.5%) started 2025-09-18 | $4.27K (-57.3%) started 2025-09-17 |
| 5Y ago | $2.96K (-70.4%) started 2021-09-20 | $548.45 (-94.5%) started 2021-09-17 |
| 10Y ago | $31.44K (+214.4%) started 2016-09-19 | $420.99 (-95.8%) started 2021-02-11 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $9.7B | $415.22M |
| Trailing P/Ei | 14.64 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 9.08 | 2.88 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.60 | 0.85 |
| Analyst targeti | $41.88 | $3.74 |
| Target upsidei | +0.73% | +38.07% |
| Metric | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -1.20% | -15.20% |
| Earnings growthi | 50.40% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | +50.40% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +26.52% | +21.67% |
| Operating margini | 28.77% | 28.14% |
| Profit margini | 20.17% | -57.96% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | -76.92% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | -76.92% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.92% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 27.66% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.32 | 1.87 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | 74.57 |
| Current ratioi | 1.72 | 1.63 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.56 | 1.39 |
Over the past year, MTCH and BMBL have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.40), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +13.48% | -57.29% |
| CAGRi | +13.50% | -57.31% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.14% | 69.41% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.42 | -0.95 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.59 | -1.35 | |
| Max drawdowni | 25.07% | 63.74% | |
| Current drawdowni | 1.42% | 58.72% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.31% | 48.81% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.19% | 50.83% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.37% | 21.77% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.77% | 27.95% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -70.76% | -94.52% |
| CAGRi | -21.82% | -44.05% | |
| Volatilityi | 44.03% | 69.22% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.44 | -0.56 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.61 | -0.82 | |
| Max drawdowni | 84.42% | 95.41% | |
| Current drawdowni | 74.77% | 94.77% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 71.44% | 73.41% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 73.73% | 76.24% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.87% | 30.31% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.58% | 37.98% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +195.11% | -95.79% |
| CAGRi | +11.43% | -43.22% | |
| Volatilityi | 45.67% | 68.89% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.37 | -0.55 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.54 | -0.80 | |
| Max drawdowni | 84.42% | 96.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 74.77% | 96.25% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 40.68% | 75.40% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 52.92% | 78.40% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.09% | 30.31% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.87% | 37.98% |
| Category | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Match Group, Inc. | Bumble Inc. |
| Sector | Communication Services | Communication Services |
| Industry | Internet Content & Information | Internet Content & Information |
| Core business | Match Group owns a large portfolio of dating apps including Tinder, Hinge, Match.com, and OkCupid, making it the dominant player in the global online dating market by revenue and user base. | Bumble operates the Bumble dating app, known for its women-first messaging approach, along with the Badoo dating app with significant international users, positioning itself as a smaller challenger to Match Group's dominance. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Tinder's user growth and monetization trends (its largest and most mature brand), Hinge's continued rapid growth, and overall payer trends across the portfolio. | Investors track Bumble app user and revenue growth, profitability improvement initiatives, and the company's ability to differentiate against Match Group's larger portfolio. |
- Dominant multi-brand portfolio covering diverse dating app demographics and use cases
- Hinge has emerged as a strong growth driver complementing a maturing Tinder
- Strong free cash flow generation supports buybacks and capital returns
- Differentiated women-first brand positioning resonates with a specific user segment
- Smaller scale provides more room for percentage-based user and revenue growth
- Badoo provides additional international user base diversification
- Tinder, the largest brand, has faced user growth deceleration and competitive pressure
- Online dating fatigue and changing social app usage patterns among younger users
- Regulatory and app store fee dynamics affect monetization economics
- Significantly smaller scale than Match Group limits competitive resources
- Has faced slower growth and profitability challenges relative to expectations
- Intense competitive pressure from Match Group's larger, more diversified portfolio
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