LUNR vs ASTS Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Intuitive Machines and AST SpaceMobile are both early-stage space economy companies, but Intuitive Machines focuses on lunar lander delivery and lunar infrastructure services primarily for government customers, while AST SpaceMobile is developing a satellite constellation for direct-to-device cellular broadband connectivity aimed at commercial mobile network partnerships.
LUNR offers exposure to government-funded lunar exploration and infrastructure services with near-term mission milestones, while ASTS offers exposure to a longer-term commercial satellite connectivity opportunity pending full constellation deployment. The decision depends on your risk tolerance for early-stage space technology execution and each company's differing revenue timeline and customer base.
LUNR holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LUNR has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+53.43% vs +43.45%), though ASTS has the better forward P/E setup (-46.43x vs -95.55x for LUNR). On fundamentals, ASTS is growing revenue faster (2626.60%), while LUNR maintains the higher operating margin (-18.10%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for LUNR (+99.19%) than for ASTS (+32.99%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to commercial lunar delivery services and infrastructure
- Value government space agency contracts as a source of credible revenue and validation
- Believe diversification into lunar data relay services can create additional long-term revenue
- Are comfortable with the inherent technical execution risk of lunar landing missions
- Want exposure to direct-to-device satellite broadband connectivity technology
- Value partnership agreements with major mobile network operators as a potential distribution channel
- Believe expanding cellular coverage to underserved areas represents a large addressable market
- Are comfortable with the capital intensity and execution risk of full satellite constellation deployment
| Metric | LUNR | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 31.3 | 70.6 |
| AI ranki | #2219 | #40 |
| Latest closei | $13.87 | $58.77 |
| 1M returni | -27.04% | -17.20% |
| 6M returni | -26.61% | -38.59% |
| 1Y returni | +53.43% | +43.45% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | LUNR | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $15.34K (+53.4%) started 2025-09-15 | $14.54K (+45.4%) started 2025-09-16 |
| 5Y ago | $14.37K (+43.7%) started 2021-11-17 | $50.32K (+403.2%) started 2021-09-16 |
| 10Y ago | $14.37K (+43.7%) started 2021-11-17 | $60.15K (+501.5%) started 2019-11-01 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | LUNR | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $2.38B | $23.3B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | -95.55 | -46.43 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.92 | 166.13 |
| Analyst targeti | $29.50 | $79.61 |
| Target upsidei | +99.19% | +32.99% |
| Metric | LUNR | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 309.80% | 2626.60% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growthi | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margini | -16.32% | -1560.79% |
| Operating margini | -18.10% | -544.63% |
| Profit margini | -26.64% | 0.00% |
| ROIC proxyi | -30.77% | -45.62% |
| Return on equityi | -30.77% | -45.62% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.85 | 2.73 |
| Debt/equityi | 52.82 | 124.86 |
| Current ratioi | 1.66 | 13.05 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.34 | 12.39 |
Over the past year, LUNR and ASTS have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.69), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | LUNR | ASTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +53.43% | +45.36% |
| CAGRi | +53.47% | +45.49% | |
| Volatilityi | 111.73% | 110.92% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.89 | 0.85 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.44 | 1.30 | |
| Max drawdowni | 75.08% | 60.15% | |
| Current drawdowni | 69.65% | 55.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 26.63% | 29.05% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 35.98% | 33.67% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.93% | 17.04% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.01% | 25.54% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +43.73% | +403.17% |
| CAGRi | +7.81% | +38.16% | |
| Volatilityi | 167.66% | 109.74% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.61 | 0.77 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.45 | 1.33 | |
| Max drawdowni | 97.43% | 85.57% | |
| Current drawdowni | 83.08% | 55.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 64.09% | 42.12% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 74.81% | 47.68% | |
| Max daily dropi | 75.24% | 27.16% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 76.48% | 33.07% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +43.73% | +501.54% |
| CAGRi | +7.81% | +29.83% | |
| Volatilityi | 167.66% | 100.54% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.61 | 0.68 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.45 | 1.20 | |
| Max drawdowni | 97.43% | 91.07% | |
| Current drawdowni | 83.08% | 55.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 64.09% | 43.55% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 74.81% | 52.45% | |
| Max daily dropi | 75.24% | 27.16% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 76.48% | 33.07% |
| Category | LUNR | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Intuitive Machines, Inc. | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Technology |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Communication Equipment |
| Core business | A space exploration company providing lunar lander delivery services, lunar data relay infrastructure, and other space-related products and services, primarily under contracts with government space agencies. | A space technology company developing a satellite constellation designed to provide direct-to-device cellular broadband connectivity to standard smartphones without requiring specialized satellite equipment. |
| Investor focus | Progress and success rate of lunar lander missions, growth in contracted lunar infrastructure and services revenue, and diversification of its customer base beyond government space agency contracts. | Satellite constellation deployment progress and timeline, commercial partnership agreements with mobile network operators, and path toward meaningful commercial service revenue. |
- Position as an early mover in commercial lunar delivery services provides potential first-mover advantages in an emerging space economy niche
- Government space agency contracts, including with NASA, provide a credible revenue base and validation of its technical capabilities
- Diversification into lunar data relay and other infrastructure services beyond lander delivery creates additional long-term revenue avenues
- Direct-to-device satellite connectivity technology addresses a large potential market for expanding cellular coverage to underserved areas
- Partnership agreements with major mobile network operators provide potential distribution channels once commercial service scales
- Technology approach using standard smartphones without specialized equipment differentiates it from some other satellite connectivity approaches
- Lunar missions carry inherent technical execution risk, with mission success not guaranteed given the complexity of lunar landing operations
- Revenue remains heavily dependent on government space agency contracts and budget priorities, which can shift over time
- As an early-stage space company, the business requires continued capital access to fund mission development and operations
- Full satellite constellation deployment requires substantial capital investment and carries execution risk around launch and deployment timelines
- Meaningful commercial service revenue remains dependent on completing constellation deployment and finalizing commercial agreements
- Faces competition from other satellite connectivity providers and evolving terrestrial network technology alternatives
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