ASTS vs IRDM Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
AST SpaceMobile is a pre-commercial-scale, high-risk bet on direct-to-cell broadband connectivity for ordinary smartphones, while Iridium is an established satellite operator with existing revenue from voice, data, IoT, and embedded safety-messaging services. The comparison typically weighs speculative future broadband upside against a proven, if slower-growing, satellite communications business.
Use this ASTS vs IRDM comparison to separate speculative pre-revenue broadband satellite exposure from an established, cash-generating satellite communications operator: AST SpaceMobile offers larger potential upside tied to successful constellation buildout, while Iridium offers a proven business model with lower near-term execution risk.
IRDM holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. IRDM leads on both 1-year return (+93.67%) and forward P/E quality (27.39x vs -48.75x for ASTS), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, ASTS is growing revenue faster (2626.60%), while IRDM maintains the higher operating margin (15.10%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ASTS (+32.79%) than for IRDM (-10.60%).
- Believe direct-to-cell broadband connectivity for unmodified smartphones is a large future market
- Are comfortable with pre-commercial-scale revenue and ongoing capital needs
- Value strong carrier partnerships as a distribution advantage
- Can tolerate launch schedule and execution risk in constellation buildout
- Prefer an established satellite operator with existing commercial revenue
- Want diversified exposure across government, IoT, and consumer safety services
- Value embedded partnerships already reaching mainstream smartphone users
- Seek lower execution risk than pre-revenue satellite broadband competitors
| Metric | ASTS | IRDM |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 59.8 | 40.5 |
| AI rank | #149 | #1009 |
| Latest close | $59.10 | $46.98 |
| 1M return | +0.20% | -0.76% |
| 6M return | -25.37% | +97.98% |
| 1Y return | +20.76% | +93.67% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ASTS | IRDM |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.12K (+21.2%) started 2025-09-02 | $19.97K (+99.7%) started 2025-09-02 |
| 5Y ago | $47.85K (+378.5%) started 2021-08-31 | $12.06K (+20.6%) started 2021-08-31 |
| 10Y ago | $60.49K (+504.9%) started 2019-11-01 | $64.45K (+544.5%) started 2016-08-31 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ASTS | IRDM |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $23B | $4.98B |
| Trailing P/E | N/A | 54.00 |
| Forward P/E | -48.75 | 27.39 |
| Price/Sales | 199.48 | 5.63 |
| EV/Revenue | 161.42 | 7.40 |
| Analyst target | $78.48 | $42.00 |
| Target upside | +32.79% | -10.60% |
| Metric | ASTS | IRDM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 2626.60% | 3.80% |
| Earnings growth | N/A | -55.00% |
| EPS growth | N/A | -55.00% |
| FCF margin | -1560.79% | +27.05% |
| Operating margin | -544.63% | 15.10% |
| Profit margin | 0.00% | 10.55% |
| ROIC proxy | -45.62% | 19.71% |
| Return on equity | -45.62% | 19.71% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 1.29% |
| Beta | 2.75 | 0.88 |
| Debt/equity | 124.86 | 378.66 |
| Current ratio | 13.05 | 2.78 |
| Quick ratio | 12.39 | 2.13 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ASTS | IRDM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +21.21% | +94.53% |
| CAGR | +21.35% | +95.33% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.69 | 1.27 | |
| Max drawdown | 60.15% | 36.41% | |
| Max daily drop | 17.04% | 14.85% | |
| Max wkly drop | 25.54% | 29.18% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +378.54% | +12.70% |
| CAGR | +36.77% | +2.42% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.76 | 0.19 | |
| Max drawdown | 85.57% | 75.34% | |
| Max daily drop | 27.16% | 22.08% | |
| Max wkly drop | 33.07% | 29.18% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +504.91% | +502.21% |
| CAGR | +30.15% | +19.67% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.68 | 0.52 | |
| Max drawdown | 91.07% | 75.34% | |
| Max daily drop | 27.16% | 22.08% | |
| Max wkly drop | 33.07% | 29.18% |
| Category | ASTS | IRDM |
|---|---|---|
| Company | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. | Iridium Communications Inc. |
| Sector | Satellite Communications | Satellite Communications |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | AST SpaceMobile is building a satellite constellation designed to deliver direct-to-cell broadband connectivity to ordinary, unmodified smartphones in partnership with carriers like AT&T, Verizon, and Orange. | Iridium operates a global satellite constellation providing voice and data communications, including satellite phones, IoT connectivity, and safety services like emergency SOS features embedded in consumer smartphones. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch the pace of BlueBird satellite launches and constellation buildout, FCC spectrum and licensing approvals, and progress toward commercial beta service launch. | Investors focus on Iridium's stable subscriber and service revenue growth, its embedded satellite messaging partnerships (including with smartphone makers), and government services contract revenue. |
- FCC approval to operate up to 248 satellites and use partner carrier spectrum for direct-to-cell service
- Large next-generation BlueBird satellites with the biggest commercial phased arrays deployed in low Earth orbit
- Strategic partnerships with major carriers including AT&T, Verizon, and Orange
- Established, revenue-generating global satellite constellation already in commercial service
- Diversified revenue across government, commercial IoT, and consumer safety/messaging services
- Long-standing embedded partnerships bringing satellite messaging to mainstream consumer devices
- Still pre-commercial-scale revenue, dependent on successful constellation buildout
- Launch schedule and satellite deployment risk, including past delays
- Substantial capital needs to fund constellation expansion before meaningful service revenue
- Slower growth profile than pre-revenue direct-to-cell broadband competitors
- Constellation replacement and capital expenditure cycles required to maintain service
- Competitive pressure from newer entrants like AST SpaceMobile and Starlink in adjacent connectivity markets
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