ASTS vs IRDM Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
AST SpaceMobile is a pre-commercial-scale, high-risk bet on direct-to-cell broadband connectivity for ordinary smartphones, while Iridium is an established satellite operator with existing revenue from voice, data, IoT, and embedded safety-messaging services. The comparison typically weighs speculative future broadband upside against a proven, if slower-growing, satellite communications business.
Use this ASTS vs IRDM comparison to separate speculative pre-revenue broadband satellite exposure from an established, cash-generating satellite communications operator: AST SpaceMobile offers larger potential upside tied to successful constellation buildout, while Iridium offers a proven business model with lower near-term execution risk.
IRDM holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. IRDM leads on both 1-year return (+133.96%) and forward P/E quality (27.32x vs -46.43x for ASTS), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, ASTS is growing revenue faster (2626.60%), while IRDM maintains the higher operating margin (15.10%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ASTS (+32.99%) than for IRDM (-10.35%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Believe direct-to-cell broadband connectivity for unmodified smartphones is a large future market
- Are comfortable with pre-commercial-scale revenue and ongoing capital needs
- Value strong carrier partnerships as a distribution advantage
- Can tolerate launch schedule and execution risk in constellation buildout
- Prefer an established satellite operator with existing commercial revenue
- Want diversified exposure across government, IoT, and consumer safety services
- Value embedded partnerships already reaching mainstream smartphone users
- Seek lower execution risk than pre-revenue satellite broadband competitors
| Metric | ASTS | IRDM |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 55.3 | 42.0 |
| AI ranki | #194 | #896 |
| Latest closei | $44.46 | $44.99 |
| 1M returni | -24.35% | -4.46% |
| 3M returni | -19.18% | -3.48% |
| 6M returni | -51.11% | +3.64% |
| 1Y returni | -53.54% | +133.96% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ASTS | IRDM |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $4.97K (-50.3%) started 2025-10-16 | $24.03K (+140.3%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $42.96K (+329.6%) started 2021-10-18 | $11.36K (+13.6%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $45.51K (+355.1%) started 2019-11-01 | $53.12K (+431.2%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ASTS | IRDM |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $23.3B | $4.97B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 54.48 |
| Forward P/Ei | -46.43 | 27.32 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 166.13 | 7.41 |
| Analyst targeti | $79.61 | $42.00 |
| Target upsidei | +32.99% | -10.35% |
| Metric | ASTS | IRDM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 2626.60% | 3.80% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | -55.00% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | -55.00% |
| FCF margini | -1560.79% | +27.05% |
| Operating margini | -544.63% | 15.10% |
| Profit margini | 0.00% | 10.55% |
| ROIC proxyi | -45.62% | 19.71% |
| Return on equityi | -45.62% | 19.71% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 1.28% |
| Payout ratioi | N/A | 68.18% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 2.73 | 0.88 |
| Debt/equityi | 124.86 | 378.66 |
| Current ratioi | 13.05 | 2.78 |
| Quick ratioi | 12.39 | 2.13 |
Over the past year, ASTS and IRDM have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.46), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ASTS | IRDM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -50.32% | +140.33% |
| CAGRi | -50.39% | +140.72% | |
| Volatilityi | 108.01% | 61.39% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.15 | 1.65 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.22 | 3.20 | |
| Max drawdowni | 68.34% | 20.39% | |
| Current drawdowni | 66.59% | 19.26% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 32.78% | 8.77% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 37.06% | 10.76% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.04% | 9.11% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.52% | 13.89% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +329.57% | +13.58% |
| CAGRi | +33.90% | +2.58% | |
| Volatilityi | 109.92% | 46.24% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.74 | 0.19 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.27 | 0.28 | |
| Max drawdowni | 85.57% | 76.45% | |
| Current drawdowni | 66.59% | 33.11% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 42.63% | 36.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 48.16% | 44.09% | |
| Max daily dropi | 27.16% | 22.09% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.07% | 29.18% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +355.07% | +431.17% |
| CAGRi | +24.34% | +18.18% | |
| Volatilityi | 100.36% | 46.17% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.64 | 0.50 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.11 | 0.73 | |
| Max drawdowni | 91.07% | 76.45% | |
| Current drawdowni | 66.59% | 33.11% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 43.73% | 26.27% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 52.52% | 34.00% | |
| Max daily dropi | 27.16% | 22.09% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.07% | 29.18% |
| Category | ASTS | IRDM |
|---|---|---|
| Company | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. | Iridium Communications Inc. |
| Sector | Technology | Communication Services |
| Industry | Communication Equipment | Telecom Services |
| Core business | AST SpaceMobile is building a satellite constellation designed to deliver direct-to-cell broadband connectivity to ordinary, unmodified smartphones in partnership with carriers like AT&T, Verizon, and Orange. | Iridium operates a global satellite constellation providing voice and data communications, including satellite phones, IoT connectivity, and safety services like emergency SOS features embedded in consumer smartphones. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch the pace of BlueBird satellite launches and constellation buildout, FCC spectrum and licensing approvals, and progress toward commercial beta service launch. | Investors focus on Iridium's stable subscriber and service revenue growth, its embedded satellite messaging partnerships (including with smartphone makers), and government services contract revenue. |
- FCC approval to operate up to 248 satellites and use partner carrier spectrum for direct-to-cell service
- Large next-generation BlueBird satellites with the biggest commercial phased arrays deployed in low Earth orbit
- Strategic partnerships with major carriers including AT&T, Verizon, and Orange
- Established, revenue-generating global satellite constellation already in commercial service
- Diversified revenue across government, commercial IoT, and consumer safety/messaging services
- Long-standing embedded partnerships bringing satellite messaging to mainstream consumer devices
- Still pre-commercial-scale revenue, dependent on successful constellation buildout
- Launch schedule and satellite deployment risk, including past delays
- Substantial capital needs to fund constellation expansion before meaningful service revenue
- Slower growth profile than pre-revenue direct-to-cell broadband competitors
- Constellation replacement and capital expenditure cycles required to maintain service
- Competitive pressure from newer entrants like AST SpaceMobile and Starlink in adjacent connectivity markets
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