RKLB vs KTOS Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
RKLB and KTOS are both smaller aerospace and defense companies, but they serve different customers with different economics. Rocket Lab sells launch and spacecraft to commercial, civil, and government space customers and is scaling toward profitability. Kratos sells unmanned systems, propulsion, and defense electronics almost entirely to governments, with established revenue but historically thin margins. Rocket Lab is the growth-and-execution story; Kratos is the budget-driven, margin-improvement story.
Use this RKLB vs KTOS comparison to distinguish a platform bet from a programme bet. Rocket Lab's outcome hinges largely on one thing going right: Neutron reaching reliable flight. Kratos depends on winning and executing many smaller defense programmes, which is less binary but also offers less dramatic upside from any single success.
KTOS holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. RKLB has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+51.88% vs -45.82%), though KTOS has the better forward P/E setup (43.10x vs 1384.99x for RKLB). On fundamentals, RKLB is growing revenue faster (62.00%), while KTOS maintains the higher operating margin (-0.17%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for KTOS (+116.52%) than for RKLB (+75.91%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want commercial space launch and satellite manufacturing growth exposure
- Believe Neutron will fly successfully and expand the addressable market
- Accept losses and volatility during the development phase
- Prefer a concentrated bet with clearly identifiable milestones
- Want exposure to unmanned systems and affordable mass in defense procurement
- Prefer revenue underwritten by defense budgets rather than commercial demand
- Believe margins can improve as newer programmes scale
- Are comfortable with a diversified portfolio of smaller contracts
| Metric | RKLB | KTOS |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 66.3 | 55.2 |
| AI ranki | #62 | #240 |
| Latest closei | $73.95 | $45.62 |
| 1M returni | +11.74% | -13.81% |
| 6M returni | +21.37% | -36.59% |
| 1Y returni | +51.88% | -45.82% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | RKLB | KTOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $15.86K (+58.6%) started 2025-09-25 | $5.42K (-45.8%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $51.64K (+416.4%) started 2021-09-27 | $19.61K (+96.1%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $75.89K (+658.9%) started 2020-11-24 | $70.29K (+602.9%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | RKLB | KTOS |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $40.35B | $8.91B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 279.18 |
| Forward P/Ei | 1384.99 | 43.10 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 45.83 | 5.04 |
| Analyst targeti | $111.00 | $102.76 |
| Target upsidei | +75.91% | +116.52% |
| Metric | RKLB | KTOS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 62.00% | 30.50% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 7.40% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +7.40% |
| FCF margini | -32.76% | -7.77% |
| Operating margini | -24.57% | -0.17% |
| Profit margini | -21.51% | 2.03% |
| ROIC proxyi | -7.92% | 1.15% |
| Return on equityi | -7.92% | 1.15% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 2.63 | 1.11 |
| Debt/equityi | 3.83 | 5.65 |
| Current ratioi | 5.48 | 5.54 |
| Quick ratioi | 4.80 | 4.74 |
Over the past year, RKLB and KTOS have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.58), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | RKLB | KTOS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +58.59% | -45.82% |
| CAGRi | +58.69% | -45.84% | |
| Volatilityi | 93.54% | 71.36% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.90 | -0.57 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.42 | -0.80 | |
| Max drawdowni | 60.99% | 66.43% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.78% | 65.10% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 26.29% | 39.43% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.26% | 44.14% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.70% | 14.20% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.27% | 22.00% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +416.41% | +96.13% |
| CAGRi | +38.92% | +14.44% | |
| Volatilityi | 79.08% | 52.98% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.75 | 0.43 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.19 | 0.66 | |
| Max drawdowni | 78.32% | 66.43% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.78% | 65.10% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 46.54% | 26.86% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 53.44% | 33.09% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.11% | 14.20% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 22.00% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +658.93% | +602.93% |
| CAGRi | +41.54% | +21.54% | |
| Volatilityi | 78.65% | 50.84% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.77 | 0.55 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.25 | 0.82 | |
| Max drawdowni | 82.96% | 72.74% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.78% | 65.10% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 46.69% | 28.02% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 54.92% | 34.80% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.60% | 22.32% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 27.78% |
| Category | RKLB | KTOS |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Rocket Lab Corporation | Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | Operates the Electron small launch vehicle, develops the larger reusable Neutron rocket, and builds satellite components and complete spacecraft through its Space Systems segment. | Supplier of unmanned aerial systems including jet-powered target drones and collaborative combat aircraft concepts such as Valkyrie, plus hypersonic and propulsion work, satellite ground systems, microwave electronics, and defense C5ISR products. |
| Investor focus | Neutron development and first flight, Electron launch cadence, Space Systems backlog, and path to consistent profitability. | Collaborative combat aircraft programme awards, target drone order flow, propulsion and hypersonics contracts, and margin improvement across a mixed portfolio. |
- Repeatedly proven orbital launch capability, rare outside SpaceX in the Western market
- Space Systems component and spacecraft business provides steadier revenue than launch
- Neutron would unlock the much larger medium-lift and constellation segment
- Well positioned in affordable unmanned systems, an area of growing US defense emphasis
- Target drone franchise provides recurring, budget-backed demand
- Exposure to hypersonics and propulsion, both funding priorities
- Still unprofitable while funding a capital-intensive rocket programme
- Development schedules in new launch vehicles frequently slip
- Competitive pressure from SpaceX on both price and cadence
- Margins have historically been thin for a defense company of its type
- Revenue is spread across many small programmes, limiting operating leverage
- Large collaborative combat aircraft awards are competitive and not assured
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