LIVE
ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. · Communication Services
$80.66
-8.44% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. · Industrials
$107.24
-15.76% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
ASTS
1
RKLB
3
Comparison scoreboard
RKLB LEADS 3/5AI Score
ASTS 58.5
RKLB ✓59.6
1Y Return
ASTS +81.87%
RKLB ✓+285.06%
Fwd P/E
ASTS -393.08
RKLB ✓-6103.59
Target Up.
ASTS ✓+1.00%
RKLB -0.30%
Op. Margin
ASTS N/A
RKLB N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
ASTS vs RKLB Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab both operate in commercial space but in entirely different business segments. AST SpaceMobile is a telecommunications company building a space-based cellular network for smartphone users. Rocket Lab is a launch vehicle and spacecraft component company providing launch services and space hardware. Both are pre-profitability growth stories with significant capital requirements.
ASTS vs RKLB is space-based cellular broadband connecting existing smartphones directly (AST SpaceMobile) versus small satellite launch services and spacecraft components (Rocket Lab) — both are speculative pre-profitability space companies but in different sectors of the commercial space economy.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
RKLB holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. RKLB leads on both 1-year return (+285.06%) and forward P/E (-6103.59x vs -393.08x for ASTS), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +1.00% for ASTS and -0.30% for RKLB.
Normalized 1Y performance
ASTS
RKLB
Recent returns
ASTS
RKLB
Analyst price targets & sentiment
ASTS · 9 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Hold (2.8/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$41.20
analyst high$108.00
analyst mean$81.47
current price$80.66
+1.0% upside to analyst mean
RKLB · 18 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.6/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$60.00
analyst high$150.00
analyst mean$106.92
current price$107.24
-0.3% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
ASTS may suit investors who:
- →prefer a satellite broadband network targeting direct-to-smartphone connectivity with MNO partnerships including AT&T and Verizon
- →value the direct-to-phone technology as genuinely differentiated from satellite systems requiring proprietary terminals
- →want exposure to space-based cellular coverage expansion addressing billions of under-connected smartphone users globally
- →are comfortable with pre-revenue scale risk, enormous capital requirements for full constellation, and SpaceX Starlink Direct-to-Cell competition
RKLB may suit investors who:
- →prefer Rocket Lab's diversified space business covering launch services (Electron), spacecraft components, and future Neutron vehicle
- →value Rocket Lab's proven commercial launch record as the world's second-most-launched orbital rocket after Falcon 9
- →want space infrastructure exposure from a company with current revenue from launches and space systems components unlike ASTS's pre-revenue stage
- →are comfortable with Neutron development capital requirements and competition from SpaceX in the medium launch market
Performance & AI score
| Metric | ASTS | RKLB |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 58.5 | 59.6 |
| AI rank | #190 | #170 |
| Latest close | $80.66 | $107.24 |
| 1M return | -8.44% | -15.76% |
| 6M return | +30.39% | +98.74% |
| 1Y return | +81.87% | +285.06% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ASTS | RKLB |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $18.19K (+81.9%) started 2025-06-18 | $38.51K (+285.1%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $76.67K (+666.7%) started 2021-06-18 | $103.12K (+931.2%) started 2021-06-18 |
| 10Y ago | $82.56K (+725.6%) started 2019-11-01 | $110.06K (+1000.6%) started 2020-11-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | ASTS | RKLB |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $31.31B | $67.01B |
| Trailing P/E | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/E | -393.08 | -6103.59 |
| Price/Sales | 368.59 | 98.60 |
| EV/Revenue | 295.70 | 87.28 |
| Analyst target | $81.47 | $106.92 |
| Target upside | +1.00% | -0.30% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | ASTS | RKLB |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 1952.20% | 63.50% |
| Earnings growth | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growth | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margin | -1663.33% | -31.64% |
| Operating margin | N/A | N/A |
| Profit margin | 0.00% | -26.87% |
| ROIC proxy | -37.75% | -13.55% |
| Return on equity | -37.75% | -13.55% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Beta | 2.63 | 2.50 |
| Debt/equity | 112.42 | 6.12 |
| Current ratio | 18.47 | 4.47 |
| Quick ratio | 17.91 | 3.87 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
ASTS max drawdown47.69%
RKLB max drawdown43.01%
ASTS max wkly drop25.44%
RKLB max wkly drop23.65%
5Y risk snapshot
ASTS max drawdown85.57%
RKLB max drawdown82.96%
ASTS max wkly drop33.07%
RKLB max wkly drop26.89%
10Y risk snapshot
ASTS max drawdown91.07%
RKLB max drawdown82.96%
ASTS max wkly drop33.07%
RKLB max wkly drop26.89%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | ASTS | RKLB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +81.87% | +285.06% |
| CAGR | +81.95% | +285.42% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.05 | 1.87 | |
| Max drawdown | 47.69% | 43.01% | |
| Max daily drop | 15.53% | 14.70% | |
| Max wkly drop | 25.44% | 23.65% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +666.73% | +931.15% |
| CAGR | +50.30% | +59.47% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.84 | 0.92 | |
| Max drawdown | 85.57% | 82.96% | |
| Max daily drop | 27.16% | 17.60% | |
| Max wkly drop | 33.07% | 26.89% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +725.59% | +1000.57% |
| CAGR | +37.50% | +53.90% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.74 | 0.87 | |
| Max drawdown | 91.07% | 82.96% | |
| Max daily drop | 27.16% | 17.60% | |
| Max wkly drop | 33.07% | 26.89% |
Business comparison
| Category | ASTS | RKLB |
|---|---|---|
| Company | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. | Rocket Lab USA, Inc. |
| Sector | Communication Services | Industrials |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | AST SpaceMobile is building a space-based cellular broadband network that connects directly to ordinary smartphones — no special hardware required. Its BlueBird satellites in low earth orbit (LEO) will provide broadband coverage to mobile network operators' existing subscriber bases. AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone are commercial partners. AST SpaceMobile is pre-revenue at scale — its first commercial BlueBird satellites were launched in 2024 and initial commercial service began testing. | Rocket Lab operates Electron (small launch vehicle for 300kg payloads) and is developing Neutron (medium-heavy launch vehicle for 13,000+ kg payloads). Beyond launch services, Rocket Lab manufactures satellite components and provides spacecraft design and manufacturing services. Its space systems segment (solar panels, separation systems, reaction wheels) serves multiple satellite operators. Rocket Lab is the second most frequently launched orbital rocket in history after SpaceX's Falcon 9. |
| Investor focus | Investors track BlueBird satellite launch count and coverage area milestones, commercial service agreement execution with MNO partners, revenue from initial commercial service deployment, and the capital requirements for full constellation buildout. | Investors track Electron launch count per year and revenue, Neutron development progress and target launch date, space systems component revenue growth, and the overall path to profitability. |
ASTS strengths
- →Direct-to-smartphone satellite connectivity with no special handset hardware requirement is a genuinely differentiated technology vs competitors requiring proprietary terminals
- →AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone commercial partnerships validate the MNO business model and provide a potential customer base of billions of existing subscribers
- →Targets unserved rural, maritime, and emergency cellular coverage gaps that are genuinely underserved by terrestrial networks
RKLB strengths
- →Second-most-frequently-launched orbital rocket behind SpaceX's Falcon 9 — reliable small satellite launch access is a proven commercial capability
- →Space systems component business (solar panels, reaction wheels, separation systems) provides manufacturing revenue independent of launch frequency
- →Neutron medium launch vehicle development positions Rocket Lab to compete in a larger launch market if Neutron achieves its performance targets
Risks to watch — ASTS
- →Pre-revenue at scale — requires successful commercial deployment of many more BlueBird satellites to generate material MNO revenue
- →Capital requirements for full constellation are enormous — equity dilution risk to fund satellite manufacturing and launches
- →SpaceX Starlink Direct-to-Cell competes with similar direct-to-phone satellite technology leveraging SpaceX's lower launch costs
Risks to watch — RKLB
- →Neutron medium launch vehicle requires billions in development capital and faces competition from SpaceX Falcon 9, ULA Vulcan, and others in the medium-launch market
- →Electron has only ~300kg capacity — the small satellite launch market is narrower than the larger medium/heavy launch market
- →Not yet profitable — losses are driven by Neutron development cost and are expected to continue through Neutron development completion
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