SPCX vs ASTS Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SpaceX is an established leader in rocket launch and satellite broadband with a newly public stock, while AST SpaceMobile is an earlier-stage company pursuing a more specialized direct-to-cell satellite connectivity niche.
Investors weighing SpaceX against AST SpaceMobile are choosing between a large, diversified space infrastructure leader and a smaller, more speculative bet on direct-to-cell satellite technology reaching commercial scale.
SPCX holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SPCX leads on both 3-month return (+0.44%) and forward P/E quality (87.68x vs -46.43x for ASTS), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, ASTS is growing revenue faster (2626.60%), while SPCX maintains the higher operating margin (-1.80%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SPCX (+58.00%) than for ASTS (+32.99%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want broad exposure to launch services and satellite internet growth
- Value a company with an established operating history in space technology
- Are comfortable evaluating a recently public company with limited trading history
- Seek exposure to reusable rocket and constellation technology leadership
- Want concentrated exposure to direct-to-cell satellite connectivity
- Believe in the commercial potential of partnerships with mobile carriers
- Can tolerate early-stage execution and dilution risk
- Are looking for a smaller-cap, higher-risk space technology investment
| Metric | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 32.2 | 56.4 |
| AI ranki | N/A | #209 |
| Latest closei | $133.70 | $43.07 |
| 1M returni | -20.23% | -27.49% |
| 3M returni | +0.44% | -26.30% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.31K (-16.9%) started 2026-06-12 | $5.38K (-46.2%) started 2025-10-29 |
| 5Y ago | $8.31K (-16.9%) started 2026-06-12 | $38.49K (+284.9%) started 2021-10-29 |
| 10Y ago | $8.31K (-16.9%) started 2026-06-12 | $44.08K (+340.8%) started 2019-11-01 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $1.85T | $23.3B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 87.68 | -46.43 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 160.10 | 166.13 |
| Analyst targeti | $222.32 | $79.61 |
| Target upsidei | +58.00% | +32.99% |
| Metric | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 91.90% | 2626.60% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growthi | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margini | N/A | -1560.79% |
| Operating margini | -1.80% | -544.63% |
| Profit margini | -35.66% | 0.00% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | -45.62% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | -45.62% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | N/A |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | N/A | 2.73 |
| Debt/equityi | 31.21 | 124.86 |
| Current ratioi | 5.12 | 13.05 |
| Quick ratioi | 4.95 | 12.39 |
Over the past year, SPCX and ASTS have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.41), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -16.93% | -46.20% |
| CAGRi | -36.92% | -46.25% | |
| Volatilityi | 82.34% | 107.67% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.20 | -0.08 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.30 | -0.12 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 70.87% | |
| Current drawdowni | 36.75% | 67.64% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 31.01% | 33.61% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.32% | 38.59% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 17.04% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 30.52% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -16.93% | +284.90% |
| CAGRi | -36.92% | +30.94% | |
| Volatilityi | 82.34% | 110.02% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.20 | 0.72 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.30 | 1.24 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 85.57% | |
| Current drawdowni | 36.75% | 67.64% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 31.01% | 43.13% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.32% | 48.52% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 27.16% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 33.07% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -16.93% | +340.84% |
| CAGRi | -36.92% | +23.63% | |
| Volatilityi | 82.34% | 100.22% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.20 | 0.63 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.30 | 1.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 91.07% | |
| Current drawdowni | 36.75% | 67.64% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 31.01% | 43.86% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.32% | 52.62% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 27.16% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 33.07% |
| Category | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Company | SpaceX | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Technology |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Communication Equipment |
| Core business | SpaceX operates the world's leading commercial rocket launch business and the Starlink satellite internet constellation, and completed a landmark public listing in 2026. | AST SpaceMobile is building a satellite network designed to provide broadband cellular connectivity directly to standard, unmodified smartphones in partnership with mobile network operators. |
| Investor focus | Watch Starlink subscriber growth, launch cadence and reusability economics, and progress on next-generation vehicle development. | Watch satellite constellation deployment progress, mobile carrier partnership agreements, and the transition from testing to commercial service revenue. |
- Dominant position in commercial orbital launch with reusable rocket technology
- Large and growing Starlink satellite internet subscriber base
- Vertically integrated manufacturing giving cost advantages over competitors
- Differentiated direct-to-cell technology compatible with existing smartphones
- Partnerships with major mobile network operators supporting commercial rollout
- Addresses a large addressable market of cellular dead zones globally
- Newly public company with a limited track record as a publicly traded stock
- Heavy ongoing capital investment required for next-generation vehicle and constellation development
- Regulatory and spectrum considerations affect satellite constellation expansion
- Early-stage commercial revenue dependent on successful satellite deployment at scale
- Continued reliance on capital raises creates dilution risk for shareholders
- Execution risk in scaling constellation size and network reliability
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