SPCX vs ASTS Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SpaceX is an established leader in rocket launch and satellite broadband with a newly public stock, while AST SpaceMobile is an earlier-stage company pursuing a more specialized direct-to-cell satellite connectivity niche.
Investors weighing SpaceX against AST SpaceMobile are choosing between a large, diversified space infrastructure leader and a smaller, more speculative bet on direct-to-cell satellite technology reaching commercial scale.
SPCX holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. On fundamentals, ASTS is growing revenue faster (2626.60%), while SPCX maintains the higher operating margin (-1.80%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SPCX (+58.00%) than for ASTS (+32.99%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want broad exposure to launch services and satellite internet growth
- Value a company with an established operating history in space technology
- Are comfortable evaluating a recently public company with limited trading history
- Seek exposure to reusable rocket and constellation technology leadership
- Want concentrated exposure to direct-to-cell satellite connectivity
- Believe in the commercial potential of partnerships with mobile carriers
- Can tolerate early-stage execution and dilution risk
- Are looking for a smaller-cap, higher-risk space technology investment
| Metric | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | N/A | 61.3 |
| AI ranki | N/A | #127 |
| Latest closei | $151.85 | $61.89 |
| 1M returni | +10.86% | -9.85% |
| 6M returni | N/A | -30.00% |
| 1Y returni | N/A | +37.23% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.43K (-5.7%) started 2026-06-12 | $12.67K (+26.7%) started 2025-09-22 |
| 5Y ago | $9.43K (-5.7%) started 2026-06-12 | $54.87K (+448.7%) started 2021-09-22 |
| 10Y ago | $9.43K (-5.7%) started 2026-06-12 | $63.35K (+533.5%) started 2019-11-01 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $1.85T | $23.3B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 87.68 | -46.43 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 160.10 | 166.13 |
| Analyst targeti | $222.32 | $79.61 |
| Target upsidei | +58.00% | +32.99% |
| Metric | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 91.90% | 2626.60% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growthi | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margini | N/A | -1560.79% |
| Operating margini | -1.80% | -544.63% |
| Profit margini | -35.66% | 0.00% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | -45.62% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | -45.62% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | N/A | 2.73 |
| Debt/equityi | 31.21 | 124.86 |
| Current ratioi | 5.12 | 13.05 |
| Quick ratioi | 4.95 | 12.39 |
Over the past year, SPCX and ASTS have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.42), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -5.65% | +26.69% |
| CAGRi | -18.98% | +26.75% | |
| Volatilityi | 89.46% | 111.01% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.15 | 0.72 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.23 | 1.11 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 60.15% | |
| Current drawdowni | 28.17% | 53.50% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 31.92% | 29.81% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 33.58% | 34.25% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 17.04% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 25.54% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -5.65% | +448.67% |
| CAGRi | -18.98% | +40.57% | |
| Volatilityi | 89.46% | 109.66% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.15 | 0.78 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.23 | 1.36 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 85.57% | |
| Current drawdowni | 28.17% | 53.50% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 31.92% | 42.03% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 33.58% | 47.68% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 27.16% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 33.07% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -5.65% | +533.47% |
| CAGRi | -18.98% | +30.72% | |
| Volatilityi | 89.46% | 100.53% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.15 | 0.69 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.23 | 1.21 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 91.07% | |
| Current drawdowni | 28.17% | 53.50% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 31.92% | 43.57% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 33.58% | 52.45% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 27.16% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 33.07% |
| Category | SPCX | ASTS |
|---|---|---|
| Company | SpaceX | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Technology |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Communication Equipment |
| Core business | SpaceX operates the world's leading commercial rocket launch business and the Starlink satellite internet constellation, and completed a landmark public listing in 2026. | AST SpaceMobile is building a satellite network designed to provide broadband cellular connectivity directly to standard, unmodified smartphones in partnership with mobile network operators. |
| Investor focus | Watch Starlink subscriber growth, launch cadence and reusability economics, and progress on next-generation vehicle development. | Watch satellite constellation deployment progress, mobile carrier partnership agreements, and the transition from testing to commercial service revenue. |
- Dominant position in commercial orbital launch with reusable rocket technology
- Large and growing Starlink satellite internet subscriber base
- Vertically integrated manufacturing giving cost advantages over competitors
- Differentiated direct-to-cell technology compatible with existing smartphones
- Partnerships with major mobile network operators supporting commercial rollout
- Addresses a large addressable market of cellular dead zones globally
- Newly public company with a limited track record as a publicly traded stock
- Heavy ongoing capital investment required for next-generation vehicle and constellation development
- Regulatory and spectrum considerations affect satellite constellation expansion
- Early-stage commercial revenue dependent on successful satellite deployment at scale
- Continued reliance on capital raises creates dilution risk for shareholders
- Execution risk in scaling constellation size and network reliability
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