MP vs USAR Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
MP Materials is the more established rare earth company with an operating mine and expanding downstream ambitions, while USA Rare Earth is an earlier-stage company concentrated on building domestic magnet manufacturing capacity.
Investors weighing MP Materials against USA Rare Earth are choosing between a more mature, production-backed rare earth company and an earlier-stage, more speculative bet on domestic magnet manufacturing buildout.
MP holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MP leads on both 1-year return (-53.69%) and forward P/E quality (61.81x vs 595.00x for USAR), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for USAR (+99.19%) than for MP (+37.80%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Prefer an established, currently operating rare earth producer
- Want exposure to US government-backed strategic minerals initiatives
- Believe in the long-term buildout of a domestic rare earth supply chain
- Can tolerate volatility tied to rare earth pricing and Chinese supply dynamics
- Are comfortable with earlier-stage manufacturing buildout risk
- Want more concentrated exposure to the magnet manufacturing segment specifically
- Believe in continued policy support for domestic rare earth supply chains
- Can tolerate execution and financing risk typical of newer industrial developers
| Metric | MP | USAR |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 50.8 | 24.8 |
| AI ranki | #363 | #2693 |
| Latest closei | $41.61 | $11.09 |
| 1M returni | -15.38% | -27.99% |
| 3M returni | -8.47% | -30.30% |
| 6M returni | -33.21% | -39.83% |
| 1Y returni | -53.69% | -67.07% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MP | USAR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $4.96K (-50.4%) started 2025-10-16 | $3.29K (-67.1%) started 2025-10-15 |
| 5Y ago | $12.22K (+22.2%) started 2021-10-18 | $11.01K (+10.1%) started 2023-07-17 |
| 10Y ago | $41.61K (+316.1%) started 2020-06-22 | $11.01K (+10.1%) started 2023-07-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MP | USAR |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $9.74B | $4.37B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 61.81 | 595.00 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 22.86 | 216.58 |
| Analyst targeti | $75.38 | $35.56 |
| Target upsidei | +37.80% | +99.19% |
| Metric | MP | USAR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 119.70% | N/A |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growthi | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margini | -104.01% | -2157.40% |
| Operating margini | -14.72% | -795.64% |
| Profit margini | -14.56% | 0.00% |
| ROIC proxyi | -3.58% | -23.56% |
| Return on equityi | -3.58% | -23.56% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.92 | 2.58 |
| Debt/equityi | 41.40 | 0.13 |
| Current ratioi | 9.51 | 32.79 |
| Quick ratioi | 8.44 | 30.12 |
Over the past year, MP and USAR have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.77), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MP | USAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -50.37% | -67.07% |
| CAGRi | -50.43% | -67.10% | |
| Volatilityi | 70.75% | 106.18% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.70 | -0.57 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.00 | -0.84 | |
| Max drawdowni | 54.56% | 69.36% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.37% | 67.07% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 31.84% | 44.01% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 33.12% | 45.88% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.99% | 17.08% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.83% | 31.92% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +22.17% | +10.13% |
| CAGRi | +4.09% | +3.02% | |
| Volatilityi | 70.27% | 102.22% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.33 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.53 | 0.79 | |
| Max drawdowni | 81.99% | 73.32% | |
| Current drawdowni | 57.82% | 71.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 48.43% | 22.70% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 52.97% | 33.28% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.29% | 29.37% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.88% | 62.94% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +316.10% | +10.13% |
| CAGRi | +25.33% | +3.02% | |
| Volatilityi | 72.06% | 102.22% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.60 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.98 | 0.79 | |
| Max drawdowni | 81.99% | 73.32% | |
| Current drawdowni | 57.82% | 71.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 42.92% | 22.70% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 48.51% | 33.28% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.27% | 29.37% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.69% | 62.94% |
| Category | MP | USAR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | MP Materials Corp | USA Rare Earth, Inc. |
| Sector | Basic Materials | Basic Materials |
| Industry | Other Industrial Metals & Mining | Other Industrial Metals & Mining |
| Core business | MP Materials owns and operates the Mountain Pass rare earth mine in California, the only integrated rare earth mining and processing operation of scale in the United States, and has attracted US government backing. | USA Rare Earth is an earlier-stage company focused on building domestic rare earth magnet manufacturing capacity and developing rare earth resources, aiming to reduce US reliance on Chinese supply chains. |
| Investor focus | Watch progress on downstream processing and magnet manufacturing capacity as the company works to move beyond raw material extraction. | Watch progress on magnet manufacturing facility development and any government or industry partnerships supporting domestic supply chain goals. |
- Operates an established, producing rare earth mine with a long operating history
- Backing and support from the US government tied to strategic minerals policy
- Positioned as a leading candidate for building a domestic rare earth supply chain
- Focused specifically on the rare earth magnet manufacturing segment of the supply chain
- Positioned to benefit from policy and industry push toward domestic magnet production
- Potential partnerships and government interest tied to critical minerals independence
- Rare earth prices are volatile and heavily influenced by Chinese supply and policy
- Significant capital investment required to build out downstream processing and magnet capacity
- Execution risk in scaling new processing operations on schedule
- Earlier-stage manufacturing buildout with limited established production history
- Capital intensity and execution risk in scaling new magnet manufacturing facilities
- Competitive and pricing pressure from established international magnet producers
Compare more than two at a time
This page is a fixed writeup on MP and USAR. Our comparison engine is the interactive version: load up to five tickers, switch timeframes, and get the correlation, drawdown, and overlap analysis that a static page can't show.
Add three more names beside MP and USAR, mixing stocks and ETFs in the same table — useful when the real question is which of a whole peer group to own.
AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
A scatter plot of forward P/E against return on equity, plus drawdown and 30-day rolling volatility charts, to separate what is cheap from what is merely beaten down.
For ETFs, a top-holdings comparison that exposes hidden overlap between funds. Every comparison exports to CSV for your own spreadsheet work.
Two comparisons a week are free without an account. A 14-day trial removes the limit and adds AI price forecasts, stock rankings, saved watchlists, and the intrinsic value calculator — no credit card required.
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.