CRML vs MP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Critical Metals Corp is an early-stage explorer betting on future rare earth project development, while MP Materials is the established operator of an active US rare earth mine with direct government support.
Investors weighing Critical Metals Corp against MP Materials are choosing between a speculative early-stage developer and a more established, production-stage rare earth company with strategic backing.
MP holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MP leads on both 1-year return (-55.29%) and forward P/E quality (61.81x vs -38.10x for CRML), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. MP leads on both revenue growth (119.70%) and operating margin (-14.72%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CRML (+79.56%) than for MP (+37.80%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Are comfortable with early-stage, pre-production mining risk
- Want exposure to potential upside from new rare earth project development
- Believe in growing demand for non-China critical mineral supply chains
- Can tolerate financing and dilution risk typical of developers
- Prefer an established, currently operating rare earth producer
- Want exposure to US government-backed strategic minerals initiatives
- Believe in the long-term buildout of a domestic rare earth supply chain
- Can tolerate volatility tied to rare earth pricing and Chinese supply dynamics
| Metric | CRML | MP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 22.3 | 50.6 |
| AI ranki | #3763 | #363 |
| Latest closei | $6.97 | $40.17 |
| 1M returni | +7.56% | -18.00% |
| 3M returni | +8.91% | -11.21% |
| 6M returni | -44.51% | -34.14% |
| 1Y returni | -64.11% | -55.29% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CRML | MP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $3.59K (-64.1%) started 2025-10-16 | $4.79K (-52.1%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $7.01K (-29.9%) started 2022-02-07 | $11.79K (+17.9%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $7.01K (-29.9%) started 2022-02-07 | $40.17K (+301.7%) started 2020-06-22 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CRML | MP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $1.06B | $9.74B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | -38.10 | 61.81 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 990.33 | 22.86 |
| Analyst targeti | $13.00 | $75.38 |
| Target upsidei | +79.56% | +37.80% |
| Metric | CRML | MP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 57.80% | 119.70% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growthi | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margini | +6779.41% | -104.01% |
| Operating margini | -4516.06% | -14.72% |
| Profit margini | 0.00% | -14.56% |
| ROIC proxyi | -140.98% | -3.58% |
| Return on equityi | -140.98% | -3.58% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | N/A | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.91 | 1.92 |
| Debt/equityi | 1.65 | 41.40 |
| Current ratioi | 0.75 | 9.51 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.75 | 8.44 |
Over the past year, CRML and MP have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.63), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CRML | MP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -64.11% | -52.09% |
| CAGRi | -64.13% | -52.14% | |
| Volatilityi | 135.16% | 70.83% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.16 | -0.75 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.27 | -1.06 | |
| Max drawdowni | 75.41% | 54.56% | |
| Current drawdowni | 66.59% | 52.09% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 53.57% | 31.85% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 55.50% | 33.13% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.19% | 11.99% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 36.13% | 24.83% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -29.87% | +17.94% |
| CAGRi | -7.29% | +3.36% | |
| Volatilityi | 132.13% | 70.28% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.49 | 0.32 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.91 | 0.52 | |
| Max drawdowni | 93.91% | 81.99% | |
| Current drawdowni | 76.74% | 59.28% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 39.09% | 48.44% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 52.92% | 52.98% | |
| Max daily dropi | 34.06% | 14.29% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 56.69% | 24.88% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -29.87% | +301.70% |
| CAGRi | -7.29% | +24.63% | |
| Volatilityi | 132.13% | 72.07% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.49 | 0.59 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.91 | 0.97 | |
| Max drawdowni | 93.91% | 81.99% | |
| Current drawdowni | 76.74% | 59.28% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 39.09% | 42.92% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 52.92% | 48.51% | |
| Max daily dropi | 34.06% | 18.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 56.69% | 25.69% |
| Category | CRML | MP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Critical Metals Corp | MP Materials Corp |
| Sector | Basic Materials | Basic Materials |
| Industry | Other Industrial Metals & Mining | Other Industrial Metals & Mining |
| Core business | Critical Metals Corp is an early-stage company focused on developing rare earth and critical mineral projects intended to support supply chains outside of China. | MP Materials owns and operates the Mountain Pass rare earth mine in California, the only integrated rare earth mining and processing operation of scale in the United States, and has attracted US government backing. |
| Investor focus | Watch project development milestones, permitting progress, and financing needs as the company works to advance its assets toward production. | Watch progress on downstream processing and magnet manufacturing capacity as the company works to move beyond raw material extraction. |
- Positioned in the strategically important critical minerals and rare earth space
- Potential to benefit from government and industry interest in non-China supply chains
- Exploration and development assets that could offer significant upside if advanced successfully
- Operates an established, producing rare earth mine with a long operating history
- Backing and support from the US government tied to strategic minerals policy
- Positioned as a leading candidate for building a domestic rare earth supply chain
- Early-stage development status with no established production track record
- Financing and dilution risk common to pre-revenue mining developers
- Long lead times and permitting uncertainty typical of new mine development
- Rare earth prices are volatile and heavily influenced by Chinese supply and policy
- Significant capital investment required to build out downstream processing and magnet capacity
- Execution risk in scaling new processing operations on schedule
Compare more than two at a time
This page is a fixed writeup on CRML and MP. Our comparison engine is the interactive version: load up to five tickers, switch timeframes, and get the correlation, drawdown, and overlap analysis that a static page can't show.
Add three more names beside CRML and MP, mixing stocks and ETFs in the same table — useful when the real question is which of a whole peer group to own.
AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
A scatter plot of forward P/E against return on equity, plus drawdown and 30-day rolling volatility charts, to separate what is cheap from what is merely beaten down.
For ETFs, a top-holdings comparison that exposes hidden overlap between funds. Every comparison exports to CSV for your own spreadsheet work.
Two comparisons a week are free without an account. A 14-day trial removes the limit and adds AI price forecasts, stock rankings, saved watchlists, and the intrinsic value calculator — no credit card required.
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.