MSTR vs RIOT Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Strategy is a bitcoin treasury holding company that acquires bitcoin through capital markets financing rather than operations, offering leveraged, financing-driven exposure to bitcoin price, while Riot Platforms is an operating bitcoin mining company that generates bitcoin directly through hash rate and power infrastructure. Both are high-beta bitcoin proxies, but they accumulate bitcoin through fundamentally different mechanisms — financial engineering versus industrial mining operations.
Use this MSTR vs RIOT comparison to evaluate two distinct approaches to public-market bitcoin exposure. Strategy offers leveraged financial exposure through debt-funded bitcoin accumulation and often trades at a premium to its underlying bitcoin net asset value; Riot offers operating leverage tied to mining economics, power costs, and hash rate growth.
RIOT holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. RIOT has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-29.96% vs -49.02%), though MSTR has the better forward P/E setup (2.49x vs -19.93x for RIOT). RIOT leads on both revenue growth (13.90%) and operating margin (-122.33%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MSTR (+82.32%) than for RIOT (+73.88%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want maximum leveraged equity exposure to bitcoin price through a dedicated corporate treasury strategy
- Are comfortable with the stock trading at a premium or discount to underlying bitcoin net asset value
- Accept convertible debt and preferred equity leverage as part of the bitcoin accumulation strategy
- View the legacy software business as a minor consideration relative to the bitcoin treasury thesis
- Prefer bitcoin exposure generated through operating mining activity rather than capital-markets-funded purchases
- Want exposure to one of the largest self-mining hash rate operators in North America
- Believe ERCOT demand-response and curtailment credits provide a durable cost advantage
- Are comfortable with high bitcoin-price sensitivity tied to mining economics rather than balance-sheet financial engineering
| Metric | MSTR | RIOT |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 52.5 | 52.6 |
| AI ranki | #385 | #293 |
| Latest closei | $151.29 | $15.50 |
| 1M returni | +16.74% | -21.32% |
| 3M returni | +60.90% | -17.64% |
| 6M returni | +1.58% | -8.39% |
| 1Y returni | -49.02% | -29.96% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MSTR | RIOT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $5.33K (-46.7%) started 2025-10-16 | $7K (-30.0%) started 2025-10-15 |
| 5Y ago | $20.45K (+104.5%) started 2021-10-18 | $5.57K (-44.3%) started 2021-10-15 |
| 10Y ago | $88.04K (+780.4%) started 2016-10-17 | $78K (+680.0%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MSTR | RIOT |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $48.94B | $6.99B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 2.49 | -19.93 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 133.93 | 10.50 |
| Analyst targeti | $224.60 | $32.40 |
| Target upsidei | +82.32% | +73.88% |
| Metric | MSTR | RIOT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 6.90% | 13.90% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growthi | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margini | -4532.49% | -106.57% |
| Operating margini | -6808.11% | -122.33% |
| Profit margini | 0.00% | -196.28% |
| ROIC proxyi | -63.56% | -48.24% |
| Return on equityi | -63.56% | -48.24% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 3.56 | 3.85 |
| Debt/equityi | 14.94 | 40.03 |
| Current ratioi | 5.39 | 1.58 |
| Quick ratioi | 5.22 | 1.17 |
Over the past year, MSTR and RIOT have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.51), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MSTR | RIOT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -46.70% | -29.96% |
| CAGRi | -46.76% | -29.98% | |
| Volatilityi | 81.24% | 88.51% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.43 | -0.02 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.66 | -0.03 | |
| Max drawdowni | 72.74% | 48.57% | |
| Current drawdowni | 49.89% | 45.97% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 49.85% | 25.64% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 52.03% | 28.71% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.12% | 14.71% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.86% | 28.93% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +104.55% | -44.34% |
| CAGRi | +15.41% | -11.06% | |
| Volatilityi | 90.99% | 94.36% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.56 | 0.29 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.86 | 0.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 84.11% | 92.55% | |
| Current drawdowni | 68.07% | 64.92% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 47.70% | 69.82% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 53.31% | 71.60% | |
| Max daily dropi | 25.55% | 19.18% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 54.10% | 40.88% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +780.36% | +595.24% |
| CAGRi | +24.31% | +21.41% | |
| Volatilityi | 75.33% | 112.53% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.60 | 0.67 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.93 | 1.12 | |
| Max drawdowni | 89.27% | 98.32% | |
| Current drawdowni | 68.07% | 80.10% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 42.23% | 73.87% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 48.53% | 78.36% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.00% | 33.90% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 54.10% | 43.31% |
| Category | MSTR | RIOT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Strategy Inc. | Riot Platforms, Inc. |
| Sector | Technology | Financial Services |
| Industry | Software - Application | Capital Markets |
| Core business | Formerly known as MicroStrategy, now operates primarily as a corporate bitcoin treasury holding company, acquiring bitcoin through equity and convertible debt issuance while retaining a legacy enterprise analytics software business as a secondary segment. | Large-scale Bitcoin mining company operating industrial-scale facilities in Texas, with a strategy emphasizing scale, vertical integration, and grid-curtailment revenue from ERCOT demand-response programs, generating bitcoin through mining operations rather than open-market purchases. |
| Investor focus | Size and growth of bitcoin holdings per share, cost of capital used to fund additional bitcoin purchases (convertible debt, preferred stock, equity issuance), and net asset value premium/discount relative to underlying bitcoin holdings. | Hash rate expansion, all-in power cost per bitcoin mined, ERCOT curtailment credits, and the pace of bitcoin holdings accumulation from mining versus sales to fund operations. |
- One of the largest corporate holders of bitcoin globally, offering leveraged equity exposure to bitcoin price appreciation
- Demonstrated ability to access capital markets (convertible debt, preferred equity) specifically to fund continued bitcoin accumulation
- First-mover brand recognition as the original public company bitcoin treasury strategy, attracting a dedicated shareholder base
- Generates bitcoin directly through mining operations rather than relying on capital markets to purchase bitcoin at market price
- One of the largest self-mining hash rate operators in North America with significant scale advantages
- Texas-based facilities benefit from ERCOT demand-response programs that can generate meaningful curtailment credit revenue
- Stock can trade at a premium or discount to the net asset value of its bitcoin holdings, creating valuation risk independent of bitcoin price itself
- Heavy use of convertible debt and preferred equity creates leverage and potential dilution or refinancing risk
- Legacy software business is a small and declining part of the overall investment thesis relative to the bitcoin treasury strategy
- High sensitivity to bitcoin price given large mined-and-held reserves and mining-driven revenue model
- Post-halving mining economics require continued efficiency gains and low-cost power to sustain margins
- Regulatory and grid-policy risk given reliance on Texas power markets and demand-response revenue
Compare more than two at a time
This page is a fixed writeup on MSTR and RIOT. Our comparison engine is the interactive version: load up to five tickers, switch timeframes, and get the correlation, drawdown, and overlap analysis that a static page can't show.
Add three more names beside MSTR and RIOT, mixing stocks and ETFs in the same table — useful when the real question is which of a whole peer group to own.
AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
A scatter plot of forward P/E against return on equity, plus drawdown and 30-day rolling volatility charts, to separate what is cheap from what is merely beaten down.
For ETFs, a top-holdings comparison that exposes hidden overlap between funds. Every comparison exports to CSV for your own spreadsheet work.
Two comparisons a week are free without an account. A 14-day trial removes the limit and adds AI price forecasts, stock rankings, saved watchlists, and the intrinsic value calculator — no credit card required.
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.