GBTC vs MSTR Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
GBTC and MicroStrategy both offer investors exposure to Bitcoin through traditional brokerage accounts, but GBTC is a fund holding Bitcoin directly with returns tied closely to spot Bitcoin prices, while MicroStrategy is an operating company that has adopted a leveraged corporate Bitcoin treasury strategy funded through debt and equity issuance.
GBTC offers relatively direct Bitcoin price exposure through a regulated fund structure, while MSTR offers leveraged Bitcoin exposure combined with corporate financing activity and a legacy software business. The decision depends on whether you prefer straightforward Bitcoin tracking or leveraged, corporate-structured Bitcoin exposure.
GBTC holds the edge across 2 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. GBTC has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-28.41% vs -56.76% for MSTR).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want relatively direct exposure to Bitcoin's price movements through a regulated fund structure
- Value a straightforward vehicle without corporate financing or leverage complexity
- Prefer holding Bitcoin exposure within a traditional brokerage account rather than managing cryptocurrency wallets
- Understand that returns will move in line with Bitcoin's inherent volatility
- Want leveraged exposure to Bitcoin price appreciation through a corporate treasury strategy
- Are comfortable with the added complexity of a share price that can trade at a premium or discount to underlying Bitcoin value
- Accept the risks introduced by significant debt financing used to acquire additional Bitcoin
- Are interested in a company that combines Bitcoin exposure with a legacy operating software business
| Metric | GBTC | MSTR |
|---|---|---|
| ETF scorei | 44.0 | 51.2 |
| Latest closei | $61.73 | $142.80 |
| 1M returni | +22.99% | +45.17% |
| 6M returni | +11.17% | +2.14% |
| 1Y returni | -28.41% | -56.76% |
The ETF score weights long-term returns and risk-adjusted performance most heavily, but still rewards low expense ratios, larger fund size, and broader diversification — so it can favor low-cost, broad, mega-cap funds over smaller thematic or actively-managed funds even when the latter have delivered stronger returns.
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | GBTC | MSTR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.16K (-28.4%) started 2025-09-04 | $4.36K (-56.4%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $18.07K (+80.7%) started 2021-09-07 | $22.04K (+120.4%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $694.8K (+6848.0%) started 2016-09-06 | $83.69K (+736.9%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | GBTC | MSTR |
|---|---|---|
| Expense ratioi | 1.50% | N/A |
| Total assets (AUM)i | $10.29B | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.00% | N/A |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 2.04 | 3.56 |
| 52-week change | -28.41% | -56.76% |
| Metric | GBTC | MSTR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y returni | -28.41% | -56.76% |
| 6M returni | +11.17% | +2.14% |
| 1M returni | +22.99% | +45.17% |
| 1Y Sharpe ratio | -0.62 | -0.71 |
| Betai | 2.04 | 3.56 |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.00% | N/A |
| 5Y CAGR | +12.59% | +17.15% |
Over the past year, GBTC and MSTR have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.85), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | GBTC | MSTR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -28.41% | -56.41% |
| CAGRi | -28.43% | -56.46% | |
| Volatilityi | 45.01% | 79.35% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.62 | -0.71 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.86 | -1.05 | |
| Max drawdowni | 53.75% | 77.12% | |
| Current drawdowni | 37.29% | 60.30% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 34.09% | 51.69% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 37.45% | 55.80% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.21% | 17.12% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.22% | 26.86% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +80.73% | +120.37% |
| CAGRi | +12.59% | +17.15% | |
| Volatilityi | 60.01% | 90.59% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.42 | 0.58 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.62 | 0.88 | |
| Max drawdowni | 85.42% | 84.11% | |
| Current drawdowni | 37.29% | 69.86% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 37.64% | 46.22% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 46.29% | 52.29% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.79% | 25.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 34.39% | 54.10% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +6848.04% | +736.90% |
| CAGRi | +52.87% | +23.69% | |
| Volatilityi | 80.70% | 74.93% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.87 | 0.60 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.36 | 0.92 | |
| Max drawdowni | 89.91% | 89.27% | |
| Current drawdowni | 37.29% | 69.86% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 44.87% | 41.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 53.08% | 47.97% | |
| Max daily dropi | 25.64% | 26.00% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 47.49% | 54.10% |
| Category | GBTC | MSTR |
|---|---|---|
| Fund name | Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF | Strategy Inc |
| Type | ETF | ETF |
| Expense ratioi | 1.50% | N/A |
| Total assets (AUM)i | $10.29B | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.00% | N/A |
- Provides direct exposure to Bitcoin's price movements without requiring investors to manage cryptocurrency wallets or exchange accounts
- Trades within a regulated exchange-traded product structure, appealing to investors constrained to traditional brokerage accounts
- Established track record as one of the earliest Bitcoin investment vehicles supports brand recognition among crypto-focused investors
- Substantial corporate Bitcoin treasury provides leveraged exposure to Bitcoin price appreciation through both direct holdings and financing strategy
- Ability to raise capital through debt and equity issuance has enabled continued accumulation of Bitcoin holdings over time
- Legacy enterprise analytics software business, while a smaller part of the overall story, provides some independent operating cash flow
- Returns are tied directly to Bitcoin price movements, carrying the same volatility as the underlying cryptocurrency
- Faces competition from a growing number of lower-cost spot Bitcoin ETFs that have launched in recent years
- As a fund with no operating business, its value depends entirely on Bitcoin's price and offers no independent business fundamentals
- Share price has historically traded at a premium or discount to the underlying value of its Bitcoin holdings, adding valuation complexity beyond simple Bitcoin exposure
- Significant use of debt financing to acquire Bitcoin introduces leverage risk that amplifies both gains and losses relative to Bitcoin's price
- Legacy software business has become a smaller part of the company's overall value proposition relative to its Bitcoin treasury strategy
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