COIN vs RIOT Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
COIN and RIOT are both Bitcoin-cycle-sensitive investments but in different business models. Coinbase earns fees from trading volume — rising when crypto markets are active. Riot earns from Bitcoin mining — rising with Bitcoin price and falling with halving events and mining difficulty. Coinbase has a more diversified business (subscription, Base, institutional) with regulatory complexity. Riot is a purer Bitcoin play through mining economics. Both are highly volatile crypto cycle stocks.
COIN vs RIOT — Coinbase (the largest regulated US crypto exchange earning trading fees, staking income, and developing Base L2 as a diversified crypto financial platform) versus Riot Platforms (the large-scale Texas Bitcoin miner converting electricity into Bitcoin through hash rate competition — a pure Bitcoin price and mining economics leveraged investment).
RIOT holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. RIOT has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+35.64% vs -43.39%), though COIN has the better forward P/E setup (67.44x vs -19.93x for RIOT). On fundamentals, RIOT is growing revenue faster (13.90%), while COIN maintains the higher operating margin (-13.92%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for RIOT (+73.88%) than for COIN (+7.76%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want regulated US crypto exchange exposure with the broadest revenue diversification across retail trading, institutional services, staking, and Base blockchain ecosystem
- see Coinbase as the primary beneficiary of crypto regulatory clarity — as the most compliant US exchange, favorable SEC outcomes benefit Coinbase most specifically
- value subscription and services revenue ($500M+) as a base that persists through crypto bear markets while trading revenue recovers in bull markets
- are comfortable with SEC lawsuit risk, trading revenue extreme cycle volatility, and competition from lower-cost or more permissive alternative crypto platforms
- want leveraged Bitcoin price exposure through mining — Bitcoin mining companies typically appreciate more than Bitcoin itself in bull markets due to operational leverage
- prefer direct Bitcoin production economics — mining Bitcoin at sub-$20,000 cost creates 2-3x+ profit margin at Bitcoin prices above $60,000
- value Riot's power curtailment income and Texas grid electricity access as structural cost advantages vs competitors in higher-cost jurisdictions
- are comfortable with halving events cutting mining revenue 50%, mining difficulty headwinds requiring continuous capacity expansion, and pure Bitcoin price dependency creating severe bear market losses
| Metric | COIN | RIOT |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 25.4 | 49.4 |
| AI ranki | #2823 | #575 |
| Latest closei | $194.25 | $23.75 |
| 1M returni | +21.25% | +22.55% |
| 6M returni | -4.27% | +77.50% |
| 1Y returni | -43.39% | +35.64% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | COIN | RIOT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $5.66K (-43.4%) started 2025-09-18 | $13.56K (+35.6%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $8.21K (-17.9%) started 2021-09-20 | $8.63K (-13.7%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $5.92K (-40.8%) started 2021-04-14 | $65.82K (+558.2%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | COIN | RIOT |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $48.71B | $6.99B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 67.44 | -19.93 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.71 | 10.50 |
| Analyst targeti | $198.97 | $32.40 |
| Target upsidei | +7.76% | +73.88% |
| Metric | COIN | RIOT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -17.30% | 13.90% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growthi | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margini | +44.15% | -106.57% |
| Operating margini | -13.92% | -122.33% |
| Profit margini | -16.34% | -196.28% |
| ROIC proxyi | -7.85% | -48.24% |
| Return on equityi | -7.85% | -48.24% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 3.39 | 3.85 |
| Debt/equityi | 50.98 | 40.03 |
| Current ratioi | 2.42 | 1.58 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.28 | 1.17 |
Over the past year, COIN and RIOT have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.50), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | COIN | RIOT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -43.39% | +35.64% |
| CAGRi | -43.41% | +35.67% | |
| Volatilityi | 72.89% | 89.13% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.48 | 0.73 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.72 | 1.13 | |
| Max drawdowni | 63.57% | 48.57% | |
| Current drawdowni | 49.84% | 17.22% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 43.67% | 23.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 46.99% | 27.29% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.34% | 14.71% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.64% | 28.93% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -17.88% | -13.73% |
| CAGRi | -3.87% | -2.91% | |
| Volatilityi | 86.85% | 94.35% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.33 | 0.39 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.51 | 0.59 | |
| Max drawdowni | 90.90% | 92.55% | |
| Current drawdowni | 53.73% | 46.25% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 52.07% | 69.12% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 57.68% | 71.28% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.40% | 19.18% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 58.72% | 40.88% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -40.83% | +486.61% |
| CAGRi | -9.21% | +19.36% | |
| Volatilityi | 84.92% | 112.67% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.25 | 0.66 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.39 | 1.09 | |
| Max drawdowni | 90.90% | 98.32% | |
| Current drawdowni | 53.73% | 69.51% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 50.39% | 74.19% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 55.95% | 78.31% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.40% | 33.90% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 58.72% | 43.31% |
| Category | COIN | RIOT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Coinbase Global, Inc. | Riot Platforms, Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges | Capital Markets |
| Core business | Coinbase is the largest US regulated cryptocurrency exchange, providing crypto trading, custody, staking, and institutional services. Coinbase's revenue comes primarily from transaction fees on retail crypto trading, institutional trading services (Coinbase Prime), and subscription services (staking income, Coinbase One). Coinbase's Base Layer 2 blockchain is a growing developer platform. Coinbase International (offshore regulated exchange) serves global institutional clients. Coinbase is the most regulated major US crypto exchange with a NYSE listing since 2021. | Riot Platforms is a Bitcoin mining company operating large-scale Bitcoin mining facilities in Texas with 30+ EH/s (exahash) of mining capacity. Riot's primary revenue is mined Bitcoin — the company mines Bitcoin blocks and earns block rewards. Riot has been expanding capacity aggressively with immersion cooling technology for energy efficiency. Riot also operates a data center hosting business and has invested in electric power infrastructure. Bitcoin mining economics depend heavily on Bitcoin price, the Bitcoin halving cycle (which cuts mining rewards in half every 4 years), and electricity costs. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on Coinbase's trading volume in crypto bull markets, subscription and services revenue growth in bear markets, Base ecosystem development, and regulatory clarity on crypto assets under the SEC. | Investors track Riot's hash rate capacity, cost per Bitcoin mined (electricity cost + depreciation), Bitcoin production quantity, Bitcoin price for revenue calculation, and Riot's Bitcoin treasury holdings. |
- Largest US regulated crypto exchange: Coinbase's regulatory compliance, Nasdaq listing (COIN), and institutional custody make it the primary gateway for regulated institutional crypto exposure
- Base L2 ecosystem development: Coinbase's Base Layer 2 blockchain is among the largest Ethereum scaling solutions — generating developer activity that could create long-term fee revenue diversification
- Subscription and services revenue: staking income and subscription fees provide counter-cyclical revenue relative to trading fees — reducing (but not eliminating) revenue volatility in crypto bear markets
- Large-scale US Bitcoin mining at low power costs: Riot's Texas operations with long-term power purchase agreements provide competitive electricity costs vs global Bitcoin mining competition
- Immersion cooling efficiency: Riot's immersion cooling technology reduces cooling energy overhead vs air-cooled operations — improving mining economics and energy efficiency
- Power curtailment economics: Riot earns power curtailment credits by voluntarily reducing mining during Texas grid peak demand — providing supplemental income beyond mined Bitcoin
- Trading revenue extreme crypto cycle sensitivity: Coinbase's trading fee revenue falls dramatically in crypto bear markets — 2022 revenue fell 60%+ from 2021 peak creating severe earnings volatility
- SEC regulatory risk: the SEC sued Coinbase in 2023 for operating as an unregistered securities exchange — regulatory clarity remains the primary overhang on Coinbase's long-term US business model
- Competition from international exchanges: Binance and other offshore exchanges offer lower fees and more token selection — competing with less-regulated alternatives for retail trading volume is an ongoing challenge
- Bitcoin halving dramatically reduced mining revenue: the April 2024 Bitcoin halving cut block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC — immediately halving all Bitcoin miners' revenue without reducing costs
- Bitcoin price determines profitability: Riot's profitability is almost entirely determined by Bitcoin price — a 50% Bitcoin price decline creates deep losses for mining operations regardless of operating efficiency
- Mining difficulty increasing from hash rate growth: as more miners join the network globally, the same mining capacity earns fewer Bitcoin — Riot must continuously expand capacity just to maintain market share
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