CRCL vs COIN: Circle vs Coinbase Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Circle is the cleaner stablecoin infrastructure play, while Coinbase is the broader crypto financial platform. Circle depends on USDC growth, reserve income, and stablecoin regulatory clarity. Coinbase depends on crypto market activity, custody, subscriptions, institutional adoption, and its ability to diversify beyond trading fees. CRCL is more focused; COIN is more diversified.
Use this CRCL vs COIN comparison to decide whether you want a pure-play stablecoin thesis or a broader crypto platform thesis. Circle may win if stablecoins become mainstream payment and settlement rails; Coinbase may win if crypto trading, custody, staking, and institutional adoption all expand together.
CRCL holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CRCL leads on both 1-year return (-35.33%) and forward P/E quality (55.13x vs 68.58x for COIN), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. CRCL leads on both revenue growth (6.60%) and operating margin (4.90%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CRCL (+17.76%) than for COIN (+3.99%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want direct exposure to USDC and regulated stablecoin adoption
- Believe stablecoins will become mainstream payment, settlement, and tokenized finance rails
- Prefer a more focused business model than a full crypto exchange
- Are comfortable with post-IPO volatility and interest-rate-sensitive reserve income
- Want broad exposure to crypto trading, custody, staking, and institutional adoption
- Prefer a more diversified digital asset platform rather than a single stablecoin thesis
- Believe Coinbase can grow subscription and services revenue through multiple crypto cycles
- Are comfortable with high earnings cyclicality tied to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and retail trading activity
| Metric | CRCL | COIN |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 27.6 | 24.7 |
| AI ranki | #2328 | #2767 |
| Latest closei | $86.97 | $183.81 |
| 1M returni | +0.78% | +6.80% |
| 3M returni | +43.42% | +14.53% |
| 6M returni | -19.07% | -8.02% |
| 1Y returni | -35.33% | -45.34% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CRCL | COIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.47K (-35.3%) started 2025-10-15 | $5.57K (-44.3%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $10.45K (+4.5%) started 2025-06-05 | $6.27K (-37.3%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $10.45K (+4.5%) started 2025-06-05 | $5.6K (-44.0%) started 2021-04-14 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CRCL | COIN |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $23.91B | $51.25B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.58 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 55.13 | 68.58 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.23 | 8.13 |
| Analyst targeti | $103.29 | $202.00 |
| Target upsidei | +17.76% | +3.99% |
| Metric | CRCL | COIN |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 6.60% | -17.30% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growthi | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margini | +7.10% | +44.15% |
| Operating margini | 4.90% | -13.92% |
| Profit margini | 15.53% | -16.34% |
| ROIC proxyi | 15.35% | -7.85% |
| Return on equityi | 15.35% | -7.85% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | N/A | 3.39 |
| Debt/equityi | 0.45 | 50.98 |
| Current ratioi | 1.03 | 2.42 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.03 | 1.28 |
Over the past year, CRCL and COIN have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.75), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CRCL | COIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -35.33% | -44.34% |
| CAGRi | -35.35% | -44.40% | |
| Volatilityi | 96.34% | 72.15% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.03 | -0.52 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.05 | -0.78 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.95% | 60.96% | |
| Current drawdowni | 39.30% | 49.14% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 38.24% | 43.54% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 40.88% | 45.81% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.11% | 13.34% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 29.00% | 26.64% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +4.49% | -37.34% |
| CAGRi | +3.28% | -8.93% | |
| Volatilityi | 109.01% | 86.82% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.51 | 0.27 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.85 | 0.41 | |
| Max drawdowni | 80.93% | 90.90% | |
| Current drawdowni | 66.99% | 56.21% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 58.05% | 52.92% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 60.76% | 58.10% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.11% | 26.40% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 31.19% | 58.72% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +4.49% | -44.01% |
| CAGRi | +3.28% | -10.00% | |
| Volatilityi | 109.01% | 84.48% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.51 | 0.24 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.85 | 0.37 | |
| Max drawdowni | 80.93% | 90.90% | |
| Current drawdowni | 66.99% | 56.21% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 58.05% | 50.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 60.76% | 55.95% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.11% | 26.40% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 31.19% | 58.72% |
| Category | CRCL | COIN |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Circle Internet Group | Coinbase Global, Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Capital Markets | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges |
| Core business | Issuer of USDC, a major dollar-backed stablecoin used for crypto trading, payments, settlement, DeFi activity, and tokenized finance applications. | Crypto exchange, broker, custodian, staking platform, institutional prime brokerage, and infrastructure provider for digital asset markets. |
| Investor focus | USDC circulation growth, reserve income, regulatory clarity for stablecoins, distribution partnerships, and whether stablecoin usage expands beyond crypto-native trading. | Trading volumes, institutional custody, subscription and services revenue, crypto market cycles, regulatory outcomes, and Coinbase's role in stablecoin and on-chain financial infrastructure. |
- Pure-play exposure to regulated stablecoin adoption through USDC
- Business model can benefit from higher stablecoin balances and reserve income
- Potential regulatory tailwind if compliant dollar-backed stablecoins gain mainstream financial usage
- Diversified crypto platform spanning exchange, custody, staking, subscriptions, and institutional services
- Strong US regulatory positioning compared with many offshore crypto venues
- Benefits from crypto bull markets through trading activity while building recurring services revenue
- Reserve income sensitivity to interest rates
- Competition from Tether, bank-issued stablecoins, and platform-native payment tokens
- Post-IPO valuation risk if stablecoin growth expectations are too aggressive
- Revenue remains cyclical because transaction fees depend heavily on crypto trading volumes
- Fee compression risk as crypto brokerage and exchange competition matures
- Regulatory uncertainty across staking, token listings, custody, and stablecoin economics
Compare more than two at a time
This page is a fixed writeup on CRCL and COIN. Our comparison engine is the interactive version: load up to five tickers, switch timeframes, and get the correlation, drawdown, and overlap analysis that a static page can't show.
Add three more names beside CRCL and COIN, mixing stocks and ETFs in the same table — useful when the real question is which of a whole peer group to own.
AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
A scatter plot of forward P/E against return on equity, plus drawdown and 30-day rolling volatility charts, to separate what is cheap from what is merely beaten down.
For ETFs, a top-holdings comparison that exposes hidden overlap between funds. Every comparison exports to CSV for your own spreadsheet work.
Two comparisons a week are free without an account. A 14-day trial removes the limit and adds AI price forecasts, stock rankings, saved watchlists, and the intrinsic value calculator — no credit card required.
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.