UPST vs OPEN Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
UPST disrupts consumer credit through AI-powered lending underwriting and an asset-light platform model, while OPEN disrupts real estate transactions through algorithmic instant home buying (iBuying) with significant capital-at-risk. Both use technology and data to replace traditional human judgment in high-value transactions.
UPST vs OPEN compares two AI-driven transaction platform disruptors in lending and real estate, both with attractive technology-forward business models but very different capital intensity and cycle sensitivity.
UPST holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. UPST leads on both 1-year return (-63.12%) and forward P/E quality (8.28x vs -65.40x for OPEN), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. UPST leads on both revenue growth (42.30%) and operating margin (7.20%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for OPEN (+52.10%) than for UPST (+43.41%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to AI-powered credit assessment with an asset-light platform model
- Believe Upstart's AI model will demonstrate superior credit quality assessment versus FICO over a full cycle
- Value the platform fee model that limits direct credit risk versus holding loans on balance sheet
- Want exposure to digital home-buying disruption at scale
- Believe Opendoor's pricing algorithms and market scale provide durable competitive advantages in iBuying
- See potential recovery value after significant losses during the 2022 housing correction
| Metric | UPST | OPEN |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 24.6 | 23.2 |
| AI ranki | #3210 | #3821 |
| Latest closei | $25.10 | $2.58 |
| 1M returni | -17.97% | -28.07% |
| 6M returni | -3.39% | -47.56% |
| 1Y returni | -63.12% | -74.09% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | UPST | OPEN |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $3.69K (-63.1%) started 2025-09-18 | $2.59K (-74.1%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $855.28 (-91.4%) started 2021-09-20 | $1.4K (-86.0%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $8.52K (-14.8%) started 2020-12-16 | $2.38K (-76.2%) started 2020-06-18 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | UPST | OPEN |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $2.74B | $3B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 54.17 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 8.28 | -65.40 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.38 | 1.24 |
| Analyst targeti | $40.40 | $4.70 |
| Target upsidei | +43.41% | +52.10% |
| Metric | UPST | OPEN |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 42.30% | -43.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 211.20% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | +211.20% | N/A |
| FCF margini | -10.30% | +1.50% |
| Operating margini | 7.20% | -15.86% |
| Profit margini | 4.69% | -46.74% |
| ROIC proxyi | 7.94% | -196.89% |
| Return on equityi | 7.94% | -196.89% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 2.17 | 3.59 |
| Debt/equityi | 258.01 | 214.88 |
| Current ratioi | 10.46 | 2.94 |
| Quick ratioi | 2.39 | 0.93 |
Over the past year, UPST and OPEN have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.37), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | UPST | OPEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -63.12% | -74.09% |
| CAGRi | -63.14% | -74.12% | |
| Volatilityi | 65.41% | 84.35% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.27 | -1.24 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.69 | -1.75 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.41% | 74.25% | |
| Current drawdowni | 63.12% | 74.09% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 46.44% | 44.95% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 48.54% | 47.65% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.04% | 15.39% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.77% | 28.60% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -91.45% | -86.04% |
| CAGRi | -38.88% | -32.59% | |
| Volatilityi | 102.43% | 113.48% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.01 | 0.14 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.01 | 0.24 | |
| Max drawdowni | 96.90% | 97.93% | |
| Current drawdowni | 93.56% | 89.60% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 85.72% | 81.10% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 87.23% | 83.25% | |
| Max daily dropi | 56.42% | 26.33% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 70.08% | 35.43% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -14.83% | -76.17% |
| CAGRi | -2.75% | -20.50% | |
| Volatilityi | 111.70% | 108.84% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.47 | 0.26 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.78 | 0.43 | |
| Max drawdowni | 96.90% | 98.57% | |
| Current drawdowni | 93.56% | 92.82% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 76.93% | 75.25% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 81.76% | 80.22% | |
| Max daily dropi | 56.42% | 26.33% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 70.08% | 35.43% |
| Category | UPST | OPEN |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Upstart Holdings, Inc. | Opendoor Technologies Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Real Estate |
| Industry | Credit Services | Real Estate Services |
| Core business | Upstart provides an AI-powered lending platform that uses alternative data and machine learning to assess creditworthiness beyond FICO scores, originating personal loans, auto loans, and small business loans through bank and credit union partners. | Opendoor is an iBuyer — it purchases homes directly from sellers, makes repairs and updates, and relists them for sale, using pricing algorithms to make instant offers on homes in dozens of U.S. markets. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Upstart's loan origination volumes (highly sensitive to interest rates), conversion rates versus traditional credit scoring, bank partner retention, and profitability through the lending cycle. | Investors track Opendoor's home purchase volume, spread per home (the difference between buying and selling price plus costs), and inventory levels as the company navigates housing market cycles. |
- AI credit model using alternative data (education, employment, income patterns) claims to provide better risk assessment than FICO scores
- Asset-light platform model earns fees from bank partners rather than holding loan risk on its own balance sheet
- Potential to expand the credit-accessible population by approving creditworthy borrowers missed by FICO-based systems
- Large-scale digital home buying platform with proprietary pricing algorithms across many U.S. markets
- Provides sellers with instant, certain transaction versus the uncertainty and friction of traditional home sales
- Diversifying into real estate adjacents including title, mortgage, and buyer representation
- Loan origination volumes collapsed during the 2022-2023 interest rate spike and took significant time to recover
- Funding model relies on bank partner confidence in Upstart's AI model during credit stress periods
- AI credit model has not yet been stress-tested through a full severe consumer credit downturn
- iBuying is extremely capital-intensive and highly sensitive to housing market price direction — declining home prices create large mark-to-market losses on inventory
- Suffered significant losses in 2022 when home prices declined after purchasing homes at peak prices
- Opendoor Zillow (Zillow shut its iBuying business) and Offerpad compete for the same market segment
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