LIVE
UPST
Upstart Holdings, Inc. · Information Technology - AI Lending
$32.43
+15.49% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
OPEN
Opendoor Technologies Inc. · Real Estate / Technology - iBuying
$4.47
+3.95% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
UPST
2
OPEN
2
Comparison scoreboard
MIXED SETUPAI Score
UPST ✓29.5
OPEN 24.0
1Y Return
UPST -45.11%
OPEN ✓+670.69%
Fwd P/E
UPST 9.47
OPEN ✓-377.53
Target Up.
UPST ✓+23.75%
OPEN +7.86%
Op. Margin
UPST N/A
OPEN N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
UPST vs OPEN Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
UPST disrupts consumer credit through AI-powered lending underwriting and an asset-light platform model, while OPEN disrupts real estate transactions through algorithmic instant home buying (iBuying) with significant capital-at-risk. Both use technology and data to replace traditional human judgment in high-value transactions.
UPST vs OPEN compares two AI-driven transaction platform disruptors in lending and real estate, both with attractive technology-forward business models but very different capital intensity and cycle sensitivity.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
UPST and OPEN are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly. OPEN leads on both 1-year return (+670.69%) and forward P/E (-377.53x vs 9.47x for UPST), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for UPST (+23.75%) than for OPEN (+7.86%).
Normalized 1Y performance
UPST
OPEN
Recent returns
UPST
OPEN
Analyst price targets & sentiment
UPST · 15 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.1/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$20.00
analyst high$80.00
analyst mean$40.13
current price$32.43
+23.8% upside to analyst mean
OPEN · 7 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Hold (3.0/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$1.00
analyst high$8.00
analyst mean$4.82
current price$4.47
+7.9% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
UPST may suit investors who:
- →Want exposure to AI-powered credit assessment with an asset-light platform model
- →Believe Upstart's AI model will demonstrate superior credit quality assessment versus FICO over a full cycle
- →Value the platform fee model that limits direct credit risk versus holding loans on balance sheet
OPEN may suit investors who:
- →Want exposure to digital home-buying disruption at scale
- →Believe Opendoor's pricing algorithms and market scale provide durable competitive advantages in iBuying
- →See potential recovery value after significant losses during the 2022 housing correction
Performance & AI score
| Metric | UPST | OPEN |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 29.5 | 24.0 |
| AI rank | #2339 | #3306 |
| Latest close | $32.43 | $4.47 |
| 1M return | +15.49% | +3.95% |
| 6M return | -28.01% | -26.96% |
| 1Y return | -45.11% | +670.69% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | UPST | OPEN |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $5.49K (-45.1%) started 2025-06-18 | $77.07K (+670.7%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $2.62K (-73.8%) started 2021-06-18 | $2.68K (-73.2%) started 2021-06-18 |
| 10Y ago | $11K (+10.0%) started 2020-12-16 | $4.14K (-58.6%) started 2020-06-18 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | UPST | OPEN |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $3.1B | $4.31B |
| Trailing P/E | 79.10 | N/A |
| Forward P/E | 9.47 | -377.53 |
| Price/Sales | 2.64 | 1.10 |
| EV/Revenue | 3.91 | 1.25 |
| Analyst target | $40.13 | $4.82 |
| Target upside | +23.75% | +7.86% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | UPST | OPEN |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 44.60% | -37.60% |
| Earnings growth | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growth | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margin | -26.63% | +32.64% |
| Operating margin | N/A | N/A |
| Profit margin | 4.21% | -35.25% |
| ROIC proxy | 7.01% | -173.61% |
| Return on equity | 7.01% | -173.61% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Beta | 2.28 | 3.55 |
| Debt/equity | 269.84 | 140.25 |
| Current ratio | 11.65 | 7.07 |
| Quick ratio | 2.84 | 3.15 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
UPST max drawdown71.21%
OPEN max drawdown59.32%
UPST max wkly drop23.39%
OPEN max wkly drop28.82%
5Y risk snapshot
UPST max drawdown96.90%
OPEN max drawdown97.93%
UPST max wkly drop70.08%
OPEN max wkly drop35.43%
10Y risk snapshot
UPST max drawdown96.90%
OPEN max drawdown98.57%
UPST max wkly drop70.08%
OPEN max wkly drop35.43%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | UPST | OPEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -45.11% | +670.69% |
| CAGR | -45.13% | +671.77% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.56 | 1.95 | |
| Max drawdown | 71.21% | 59.32% | |
| Max daily drop | 18.74% | 24.60% | |
| Max wkly drop | 23.39% | 28.82% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -73.82% | -73.25% |
| CAGR | -23.51% | -23.18% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.22 | 0.26 | |
| Max drawdown | 96.90% | 97.93% | |
| Max daily drop | 56.42% | 26.33% | |
| Max wkly drop | 70.08% | 35.43% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +10.04% | -58.63% |
| CAGR | +1.75% | -13.68% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.53 | 0.34 | |
| Max drawdown | 96.90% | 98.57% | |
| Max daily drop | 56.42% | 26.33% | |
| Max wkly drop | 70.08% | 35.43% |
Business comparison
| Category | UPST | OPEN |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Upstart Holdings, Inc. | Opendoor Technologies Inc. |
| Sector | Information Technology - AI Lending | Real Estate / Technology - iBuying |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Upstart provides an AI-powered lending platform that uses alternative data and machine learning to assess creditworthiness beyond FICO scores, originating personal loans, auto loans, and small business loans through bank and credit union partners. | Opendoor is an iBuyer — it purchases homes directly from sellers, makes repairs and updates, and relists them for sale, using pricing algorithms to make instant offers on homes in dozens of U.S. markets. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Upstart's loan origination volumes (highly sensitive to interest rates), conversion rates versus traditional credit scoring, bank partner retention, and profitability through the lending cycle. | Investors track Opendoor's home purchase volume, spread per home (the difference between buying and selling price plus costs), and inventory levels as the company navigates housing market cycles. |
UPST strengths
- →AI credit model using alternative data (education, employment, income patterns) claims to provide better risk assessment than FICO scores
- →Asset-light platform model earns fees from bank partners rather than holding loan risk on its own balance sheet
- →Potential to expand the credit-accessible population by approving creditworthy borrowers missed by FICO-based systems
OPEN strengths
- →Large-scale digital home buying platform with proprietary pricing algorithms across many U.S. markets
- →Provides sellers with instant, certain transaction versus the uncertainty and friction of traditional home sales
- →Diversifying into real estate adjacents including title, mortgage, and buyer representation
Risks to watch — UPST
- →Loan origination volumes collapsed during the 2022-2023 interest rate spike and took significant time to recover
- →Funding model relies on bank partner confidence in Upstart's AI model during credit stress periods
- →AI credit model has not yet been stress-tested through a full severe consumer credit downturn
Risks to watch — OPEN
- →iBuying is extremely capital-intensive and highly sensitive to housing market price direction — declining home prices create large mark-to-market losses on inventory
- →Suffered significant losses in 2022 when home prices declined after purchasing homes at peak prices
- →Opendoor Zillow (Zillow shut its iBuying business) and Offerpad compete for the same market segment
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