SOFI vs UPST Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SoFi operates a diversified digital banking platform with a national bank charter, while Upstart focuses more narrowly on AI-driven credit underwriting technology for lending partners.
Investors weighing SoFi against Upstart are choosing between a diversified digital bank with multiple revenue streams and a more concentrated, higher-volatility AI lending technology platform.
SOFI holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SOFI has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-46.16% vs -51.54%), though UPST has the better forward P/E setup (8.28x vs 21.70x for SOFI). SOFI leads on both revenue growth (42.60%) and operating margin (16.96%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for UPST (+43.41%) than for SOFI (+13.58%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want diversified exposure to digital banking, lending, and investing products
- Value the stability of a national bank charter and lower-cost funding
- Believe in continued member and cross-sell growth
- Prefer a broader fintech platform over a single-product focus
- Believe in the long-term potential of AI-driven credit underwriting
- Can tolerate high volatility tied to loan origination volume swings
- Want concentrated exposure to a specific lending technology thesis
- Are comfortable with dependency on bank funding partners
| Metric | SOFI | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 37.5 | 24.4 |
| AI ranki | #1338 | #3061 |
| Latest closei | $15.09 | $24.75 |
| 1M returni | -11.60% | -2.10% |
| 3M returni | -12.88% | -19.85% |
| 6M returni | -20.70% | -25.20% |
| 1Y returni | -46.16% | -51.54% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SOFI | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $5.67K (-43.3%) started 2025-10-16 | $4.85K (-51.5%) started 2025-10-15 |
| 5Y ago | $7.24K (-27.6%) started 2021-10-18 | $634.62 (-93.7%) started 2021-10-15 |
| 10Y ago | $12.37K (+23.7%) started 2021-01-04 | $8.4K (-16.0%) started 2020-12-16 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SOFI | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $23.04B | $2.74B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 36.41 | 54.17 |
| Forward P/Ei | 21.70 | 8.28 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 5.17 | 3.38 |
| Analyst targeti | $20.26 | $40.40 |
| Target upsidei | +13.58% | +43.41% |
| Metric | SOFI | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 42.60% | 42.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 40.40% | 211.20% |
| EPS growthi | +40.40% | +211.20% |
| FCF margini | N/A | -10.30% |
| Operating margini | 16.96% | 7.20% |
| Profit margini | 14.91% | 4.69% |
| ROIC proxyi | 7.09% | 7.94% |
| Return on equityi | 7.09% | 7.94% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 2.20 | 2.17 |
| Debt/equityi | 30.84 | 258.01 |
| Current ratioi | 1.10 | 10.46 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.46 | 2.39 |
Over the past year, SOFI and UPST have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.70), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SOFI | UPST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -43.27% | -51.54% |
| CAGRi | -43.33% | -51.56% | |
| Volatilityi | 55.96% | 65.36% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.81 | -0.85 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.08 | -1.17 | |
| Max drawdowni | 55.85% | 56.88% | |
| Current drawdowni | 53.15% | 53.07% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 36.30% | 35.36% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 39.61% | 38.72% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.44% | 15.04% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.11% | 19.77% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -27.63% | -93.65% |
| CAGRi | -6.27% | -42.39% | |
| Volatilityi | 65.70% | 102.26% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.16 | -0.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.23 | -0.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 81.54% | 96.90% | |
| Current drawdowni | 53.15% | 93.65% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 52.23% | 87.06% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 56.75% | 87.98% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.44% | 56.42% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.27% | 70.08% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +23.69% | -16.02% |
| CAGRi | +3.75% | -2.95% | |
| Volatilityi | 71.28% | 111.14% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.33 | 0.47 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.53 | 0.77 | |
| Max drawdowni | 83.32% | 96.90% | |
| Current drawdowni | 53.15% | 93.65% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 51.68% | 77.15% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 56.49% | 81.93% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.44% | 56.42% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.27% | 70.08% |
| Category | SOFI | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Company | SoFi Technologies, Inc. | Upstart Holdings, Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Credit Services | Credit Services |
| Core business | SoFi operates a digital financial services platform offering banking, lending, investing, and insurance products, anchored by a national bank charter. | Upstart operates an AI-driven lending platform that helps banks and credit unions assess borrower risk and originate personal, auto, and other consumer loans. |
| Investor focus | Watch member and product growth trends, along with the mix between higher-margin fee-based revenue and traditional lending income. | Watch loan origination volume trends and adoption of its AI underwriting model by bank and credit union partners. |
- National bank charter provides lower-cost funding and broader product flexibility
- Diversified revenue mix spanning lending, banking, and fee-based financial services
- Growing member base with expanding cross-sell opportunities
- AI-driven underwriting model aims to expand credit access beyond traditional scoring
- Asset-light model relies on bank partners rather than holding most loans itself
- Expanding into additional loan categories beyond its original personal loan focus
- Lending segment remains sensitive to credit cycles and interest rate changes
- Faces competition from both traditional banks and other fintech platforms
- Profitability is still maturing as newer business lines scale
- Loan origination volumes are highly sensitive to interest rate and credit cycles
- Revenue has shown significant volatility tied to macroeconomic lending conditions
- Reliance on bank funding partners creates dependency risk
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