NU vs MELI Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Nu Holdings (Nubank) and MercadoLibre are the two most important Latin American technology companies, but they approach the market differently. Nubank is a pure-play digital bank starting with credit and expanding into all banking services. MercadoLibre started with e-commerce and built fintech (Mercado Pago) as a complement. In Brazil, they are direct fintech competitors. Nubank is purely fintech; MercadoLibre is e-commerce with a large and growing fintech platform.
NU vs MELI is the world's largest digital bank focused purely on financial services for Latin America (Nu Holdings) versus the dominant Latin American e-commerce marketplace with a fintech platform as a growing second pillar (MercadoLibre) — complementary businesses with direct fintech competition in Brazil.
NU holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. NU leads on both 1-year return (-27.87%) and forward P/E quality (13.43x vs 34.60x for MELI), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. NU leads on both revenue growth (52.10%) and operating margin (50.15%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NU (+21.96%) than for MELI (+14.76%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer pure-play exposure to Latin American digital banking disruption with 100M+ customers and proven GAAP profitability
- value Nubank's single-focus banking model without e-commerce complexity and GMV cycle dependency
- want the largest digital bank in the world as a Latin American fintech position without marketplace/e-commerce capital allocation
- are comfortable with Brazil credit cycle risk, LatAm currency volatility, and traditional bank competitive response in digital banking
- prefer a diversified Latin American tech platform with both e-commerce and fintech as dual compounding growth engines
- value MercadoLibre's 18-country commerce network as a more diversified geographic and business-model foundation than Nubank's banking focus
- want both e-commerce GMV growth and Mercado Pago fintech adoption in a single investment with Latin America's largest tech platform
- are comfortable with Argentina macroeconomic risk, e-commerce growth normalization, and Nubank fintech competition in Brazil
| Metric | NU | MELI |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 31.9 | 63.7 |
| AI ranki | #2119 | #87 |
| Latest closei | $11.62 | $1,676.79 |
| 1M returni | -13.48% | -1.17% |
| 3M returni | -19.53% | -11.69% |
| 6M returni | -17.94% | -7.54% |
| 1Y returni | -27.87% | -27.95% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NU | MELI |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.2K (-28.0%) started 2025-11-03 | $7.24K (-27.6%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $11.25K (+12.5%) started 2021-12-09 | $10.95K (+9.5%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $11.25K (+12.5%) started 2021-12-09 | $101.08K (+910.8%) started 2016-11-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NU | MELI |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $74.39B | $99.68B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 21.10 | 53.47 |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.43 | 34.60 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 5.62 |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.18 | 3.04 |
| Analyst targeti | $18.78 | $2,256.54 |
| Target upsidei | +21.96% | +14.76% |
| Metric | NU | MELI |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 52.10% | 49.80% |
| Earnings growthi | 66.30% | -10.90% |
| EPS growthi | +66.30% | -10.90% |
| FCF margini | N/A | +1.00% |
| Operating margini | 50.15% | 6.72% |
| Profit margini | 42.73% | 5.30% |
| ROIC proxyi | 31.63% | 27.50% |
| Return on equityi | 31.63% | 27.50% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 0.94 | 1.31 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | 168.59 |
| Current ratioi | N/A | 1.12 |
| Quick ratioi | N/A | 0.40 |
Over the past year, NU and MELI have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.54), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NU | MELI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -27.96% | -27.61% |
| CAGRi | -28.03% | -27.68% | |
| Volatilityi | 45.97% | 40.50% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.59 | -0.71 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.78 | -0.94 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.17% | 33.22% | |
| Current drawdowni | 38.06% | 27.61% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.96% | 19.51% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 21.85% | 20.86% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.95% | 12.70% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.35% | 15.16% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +12.49% | +9.46% |
| CAGRi | +2.43% | +1.82% | |
| Volatilityi | 58.06% | 49.59% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.25 | 0.19 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.37 | 0.28 | |
| Max drawdowni | 72.07% | 64.17% | |
| Current drawdowni | 38.06% | 35.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 29.39% | 23.87% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 35.96% | 28.56% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.89% | 16.88% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 36.05% | 33.57% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +12.49% | +910.85% |
| CAGRi | +2.43% | +26.04% | |
| Volatilityi | 58.06% | 48.93% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.25 | 0.63 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.37 | 0.92 | |
| Max drawdowni | 72.07% | 69.12% | |
| Current drawdowni | 38.06% | 35.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 29.39% | 20.33% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 35.96% | 26.13% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.89% | 16.88% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 36.05% | 33.57% |
| Category | NU | MELI |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Nu Holdings Ltd. | MercadoLibre, Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Banks - Regional | Internet Retail |
| Core business | Nu Holdings (Nubank) is the world's largest digital bank by customer count, with 100M+ customers primarily in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. Nubank started with credit cards for the previously underbanked, and has expanded into savings, investments, personal loans, and insurance. Its mobile-first, zero-fee model disrupted Brazil's high-fee incumbent banking oligopoly. Nubank achieved GAAP profitability in 2023. | MercadoLibre is Latin America's dominant e-commerce marketplace and fintech ecosystem spanning 18 countries. Its Mercado Pago payment platform has grown beyond marketplace payments into standalone digital banking, payments for physical retail, and Mercado Credito lending. MercadoLibre and Nubank compete in some fintech segments (digital payments, lending) in Brazil — their Mercado Pago vs Nubank overlap is the most direct competition between these two Latin American tech giants. |
| Investor focus | Investors track active customer count, average revenue per active customer (ARPAC) in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia early-stage growth, and credit quality of Nubank's lending portfolio. | Investors track GMV, Mercado Pago Total Payment Volume, unique active fintech users, Mercado Credito loan portfolio quality, and whether fintech profitability is contributing to overall company margins. |
- 100M+ customers creates formidable distribution scale — the largest digital bank in the world by customer count with no close competitor in Brazil
- GAAP profitability validates the business model — Nubank's low-cost digital operations support superior unit economics vs. high-overhead traditional banks
- Mexico and Colombia provide 10–15 year growth runway as Nubank replicates the Brazil playbook in new markets with similar banking oligopoly dynamics
- E-commerce marketplace is the dominant Latin American platform with 18-country reach and marketplace network effects from seller and buyer depth
- Mercado Pago benefits from the marketplace relationship — millions of sellers and buyers already use Mercado Pago and can expand into standalone payments
- Mercado Credito lending to marketplace sellers is backed by transaction history data providing a powerful underwriting advantage for small business loans
- Brazil credit cycle — Nubank's customers include first-time credit users with limited credit history, increasing default risk in recessions
- Brazilian real and Mexican peso currency depreciation impact US dollar reported results and investor returns
- Traditional Brazilian banks (Itaú, Bradesco) have launched competitive digital banking products after initially underestimating Nubank
- Nubank directly competes with Mercado Pago in consumer fintech in Brazil — two of the largest fintech platforms in Latin America competing for the same customers
- Argentina macroeconomic volatility creates significant reporting distortions and operational challenges in one of MELI's largest markets
- E-commerce growth slowing from post-COVID surge — sustainability of elevated GMV growth requires continued market share gain and new category expansion
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