KLAR vs UPST Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Klarna is typically evaluated as a global consumer buy-now-pay-later and digital banking platform whose stock has come under pressure since its 2025 IPO amid profitability concerns, while Upstart is assessed as an AI-driven loan underwriting platform whose growth depends on funding partner capacity and credit model performance. Both are fintech lenders sensitive to consumer credit trends, but they differ in geography, product structure, and business model maturity. The choice depends on whether an investor wants global BNPL scale or a U.S.-focused AI underwriting bet.
Upstart suits investors wanting a more focused bet on AI-driven credit underwriting scaling profitably, while Klarna offers broader, more established global consumer lending scale but requires confidence in its path back to sustained profitability after a difficult post-IPO stretch.
UPST holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. UPST leads on both 1-year return (-50.70%) and forward P/E quality (8.28x vs 18.16x for KLAR), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. UPST leads on both revenue growth (42.30%) and operating margin (7.20%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for UPST (+43.41%) than for KLAR (+39.85%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to global buy-now-pay-later and digital banking adoption
- Believe in Klarna's continued path toward sustained profitability
- See value after the stock's sharp decline from its IPO price
- Can tolerate regulatory scrutiny of BNPL lending
- Believe AI-driven underwriting will outperform traditional credit scoring over time
- Want exposure to a recovering consumer lending origination cycle
- Can tolerate volatility tied to funding partner capacity and interest rates
- Are comfortable with a smaller, more concentrated fintech platform
| Metric | KLAR | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 21.3 | 24.4 |
| AI ranki | N/A | #3061 |
| Latest closei | $13.02 | $23.56 |
| 1M returni | -7.00% | -5.19% |
| 3M returni | -30.56% | -20.16% |
| 6M returni | -13.55% | -31.85% |
| 1Y returni | -63.30% | -50.70% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | KLAR | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $3.67K (-63.3%) started 2025-10-16 | $4.93K (-50.7%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $3.05K (-69.5%) started 2025-09-11 | $614.81 (-93.9%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $3.05K (-69.5%) started 2025-09-11 | $7.99K (-20.1%) started 2020-12-16 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | KLAR | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $5.48B | $2.74B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 54.17 |
| Forward P/Ei | 18.16 | 8.28 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.64 | 3.38 |
| Analyst targeti | $20.28 | $40.40 |
| Target upsidei | +39.85% | +43.41% |
| Metric | KLAR | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 26.60% | 42.30% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 211.20% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +211.20% |
| FCF margini | +19.77% | -10.30% |
| Operating margini | 2.97% | 7.20% |
| Profit margini | -3.52% | 4.69% |
| ROIC proxyi | -4.29% | 7.94% |
| Return on equityi | -4.29% | 7.94% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | N/A | 2.17 |
| Debt/equityi | 65.72 | 258.01 |
| Current ratioi | 23.15 | 10.46 |
| Quick ratioi | 22.34 | 2.39 |
Over the past year, KLAR and UPST have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.53), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | KLAR | UPST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -63.30% | -50.70% |
| CAGRi | -63.33% | -50.72% | |
| Volatilityi | 68.98% | 65.23% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.16 | -0.83 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.47 | -1.14 | |
| Max drawdowni | 69.12% | 56.88% | |
| Current drawdowni | 67.23% | 55.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 48.17% | 35.52% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 52.22% | 38.87% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.91% | 15.04% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 32.30% | 19.77% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -69.54% | -93.85% |
| CAGRi | -66.22% | -42.79% | |
| Volatilityi | 67.98% | 102.28% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.31 | -0.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.66 | -0.11 | |
| Max drawdowni | 73.02% | 96.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 71.37% | 93.85% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 50.70% | 86.91% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 54.97% | 87.83% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.91% | 56.42% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 32.30% | 70.08% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -69.54% | -20.05% |
| CAGRi | -66.22% | -3.77% | |
| Volatilityi | 67.98% | 111.13% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.31 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.66 | 0.76 | |
| Max drawdowni | 73.02% | 96.90% | |
| Current drawdowni | 71.37% | 93.96% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 50.70% | 77.16% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 54.97% | 81.94% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.91% | 56.42% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 32.30% | 70.08% |
| Category | KLAR | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Klarna Group plc | Upstart Holdings, Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Credit Services | Credit Services |
| Core business | Klarna operates a buy-now-pay-later and digital banking platform, letting consumers split purchases into installments while providing merchant payment services globally. | Upstart operates an AI-driven lending platform that uses machine learning models to underwrite personal, auto, and other consumer loans for bank and credit union partners. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch gross merchandise volume growth, credit loss trends, and progress toward sustained profitability following its 2025 U.S. listing. | Investors watch loan origination volume growth, funding partner capacity, and whether Upstart's AI underwriting models continue to perform through varying credit cycles. |
- Large global merchant network and consumer user base across buy-now-pay-later
- Improving profitability trajectory with narrowing losses since its IPO
- Expanding into broader digital banking and financial services products
- Reiterated double-digit revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth guidance for 2026
- AI-based underwriting model differentiates it from traditional credit scoring lenders
- Expanding loan funding partnerships beyond its original personal loan product
- Stock has declined sharply from its IPO price amid profitability scrutiny
- Credit risk exposure tied to consumer repayment behavior in a buy-now-pay-later model
- Increasing regulatory attention on buy-now-pay-later lending practices
- Origination volume and revenue remain sensitive to interest rates and funding partner appetite
- Margins have not kept pace with revenue growth in recent periods
- Model performance risk if underwriting assumptions face a credit downturn
Compare more than two at a time
This page is a fixed writeup on KLAR and UPST. Our comparison engine is the interactive version: load up to five tickers, switch timeframes, and get the correlation, drawdown, and overlap analysis that a static page can't show.
Add three more names beside KLAR and UPST, mixing stocks and ETFs in the same table — useful when the real question is which of a whole peer group to own.
AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
A scatter plot of forward P/E against return on equity, plus drawdown and 30-day rolling volatility charts, to separate what is cheap from what is merely beaten down.
For ETFs, a top-holdings comparison that exposes hidden overlap between funds. Every comparison exports to CSV for your own spreadsheet work.
Two comparisons a week are free without an account. A 14-day trial removes the limit and adds AI price forecasts, stock rankings, saved watchlists, and the intrinsic value calculator — no credit card required.
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.