MDB vs ESTC Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
MongoDB and Elastic are both developer-focused data infrastructure companies with growing cloud service offerings, but MongoDB is centered on its document database platform and Atlas cloud service, while Elastic offers a more diversified platform spanning search, observability, and security analytics alongside its Elastic Cloud service.
MDB offers focused exposure to document database adoption and Atlas cloud growth, while ESTC offers diversified exposure across search, observability, and security analytics use cases. The decision depends on whether you prefer a focused database platform or a more diversified data analytics platform.
MDB holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MDB has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+24.74% vs +2.12%), though ESTC has the better forward P/E setup (23.02x vs 48.16x for MDB). On fundamentals, MDB is growing revenue faster (25.20%), while ESTC maintains the higher operating margin (-0.61%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MDB (+21.62%) than for ESTC (+16.26%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want focused exposure to document database adoption and Atlas cloud service growth
- Value a large, established developer community supporting organic platform adoption
- Believe vector search and AI-related database features will drive continued relevance
- Prefer a more focused database platform over a diversified multi-use-case company
- Want diversified exposure across search, observability, and security analytics use cases
- Value multiple avenues for platform adoption within customer organizations
- Believe generative AI and vector search features will drive demand for its search platform
- Prefer diversification across several software categories over a single-focus database platform
| Metric | MDB | ESTC |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 63.1 | 35.4 |
| AI ranki | #108 | #1687 |
| Latest closei | $393.42 | $88.97 |
| 1M returni | -9.48% | +4.66% |
| 6M returni | +45.62% | +61.32% |
| 1Y returni | +24.74% | +2.12% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MDB | ESTC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.44K (+24.4%) started 2025-09-18 | $9.93K (-0.7%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $8.04K (-19.6%) started 2021-09-20 | $5.55K (-44.5%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $122.68K (+1126.8%) started 2017-10-19 | $12.71K (+27.1%) started 2018-10-05 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MDB | ESTC |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $30.02B | $9.53B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 540.88 | 25.93 |
| Forward P/Ei | 48.16 | 23.02 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 12.51 | 4.90 |
| Analyst targeti | $453.91 | $105.52 |
| Target upsidei | +21.62% | +16.26% |
| Metric | MDB | ESTC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 25.20% | 15.10% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growthi | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margini | +19.89% | +27.98% |
| Operating margini | -3.61% | -0.61% |
| Profit margini | -1.12% | 20.84% |
| ROIC proxyi | -0.97% | 33.12% |
| Return on equityi | -0.97% | 33.12% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.54 | 0.97 |
| Debt/equityi | 2.00 | 45.94 |
| Current ratioi | 4.95 | 1.81 |
| Quick ratioi | 4.55 | 1.64 |
Over the past year, MDB and ESTC have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.56), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MDB | ESTC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +24.38% | -0.75% |
| CAGRi | +24.41% | -0.75% | |
| Volatilityi | 67.26% | 57.31% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.59 | 0.19 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.89 | 0.28 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.72% | 54.17% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.70% | 10.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.48% | 27.04% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 23.57% | 31.35% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.24% | 15.44% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.59% | 22.89% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -19.59% | -44.50% |
| CAGRi | -4.27% | -11.12% | |
| Volatilityi | 70.49% | 60.35% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.22 | 0.03 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.33 | 0.04 | |
| Max drawdowni | 76.52% | 76.82% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.75% | 52.37% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 45.88% | 54.29% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 48.78% | 56.25% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.94% | 26.49% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.71% | 32.32% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1126.75% | +27.10% |
| CAGRi | +32.48% | +3.06% | |
| Volatilityi | 65.95% | 58.10% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.69 | 0.26 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.05 | 0.39 | |
| Max drawdowni | 76.52% | 76.82% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.75% | 52.37% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.93% | 40.71% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 37.88% | 46.51% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.94% | 26.49% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.71% | 32.32% |
| Category | MDB | ESTC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | MongoDB, Inc. | Elastic N.V. |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Software - Infrastructure | Software - Application |
| Core business | A developer-focused document database company whose flagship database platform and Atlas cloud database service are used by developers to build and scale modern applications across industries. | A search and data analytics platform company whose technology is used by organizations for search applications, observability monitoring, and security analytics, with a growing cloud-based Elastic Cloud service. |
| Investor focus | Atlas cloud database service growth as a percentage of total revenue, net revenue retention trends among existing customers, and adoption of newer features including vector search capabilities for AI applications. | Elastic Cloud service growth as a percentage of total revenue, net revenue retention trends across its search, observability, and security use cases, and adoption of AI-related vector search and generative AI features. |
- Large, established developer community provides a strong foundation for organic adoption and word-of-mouth growth of its database platform
- Atlas cloud database service has become a significant and growing portion of revenue, aligning the business with the broader shift toward cloud-native infrastructure
- Expansion into vector search and AI-related database features positions the company to capture demand from developers building AI-powered applications
- Diversified use cases across search, observability, and security analytics provide multiple avenues for platform adoption within customer organizations
- Growing Elastic Cloud service aligns the business with the broader shift toward cloud-native infrastructure and consumption-based revenue models
- Vector search and generative AI feature development positions the company to capture demand from organizations building AI-powered search and retrieval applications
- Competition from cloud provider native database services and other database vendors requires continued differentiation and innovation
- Net revenue retention trends among existing customers are an important indicator of the health of the core business that can fluctuate
- Achieving sustained profitability alongside continued growth investment remains an ongoing balancing act for the company
- Competition from cloud provider native services and other specialized search, observability, and security vendors requires continued differentiation
- Diversified use cases across search, observability, and security mean the company competes across several distinct and competitive software categories simultaneously
- Net revenue retention trends among existing customers are an important indicator of business health that can fluctuate
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.