AAPL vs NVDA: Consumer Ecosystem Durability vs AI Semiconductor Hypergrowth: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Apple is the world's most valuable consumer technology franchise, generating predictable cash flows from a massive installed base and high-margin services. NVIDIA is the dominant AI infrastructure chipmaker, delivering hypergrowth as the AI compute buildout accelerates. Apple offers stability and capital returns; NVIDIA offers explosive growth tied to AI infrastructure spending.
Use this AAPL vs NVDA comparison to evaluate two different mega-cap technology archetypes: Apple's mature consumer ecosystem compounding through services and buybacks versus NVIDIA's AI semiconductor hypergrowth driven by data center GPU demand.
NVDA holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. NVDA leads on both 1-year return (+37.92%) and forward P/E quality (14.21x vs 33.52x for AAPL), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. NVDA leads on both revenue growth (105.90%) and operating margin (66.24%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NVDA (+48.66%) than for AAPL (+1.49%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Prefer a lower-volatility mega-cap with predictable earnings and best-in-class capital returns
- Want exposure to a consumer ecosystem with 2B+ devices and a growing services revenue stream
- Believe Apple Intelligence will drive a meaningful iPhone upgrade cycle in 2026-2027
- Value dividend growth and massive share buybacks as core components of total return
- Want the most direct equity exposure to the multi-year AI infrastructure buildout
- Are comfortable with higher valuation and higher beta in exchange for 50%+ revenue growth
- Believe AI compute demand will remain supply-constrained for several more years
- Value NVIDIA's 70%+ gross margins and CUDA ecosystem as signs of a durable competitive moat
| Metric | AAPL | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 58.9 | 88.3 |
| AI ranki | #192 | #4 |
| Latest closei | $319.97 | $230.36 |
| 1M returni | +2.12% | +2.86% |
| 6M returni | +23.12% | +26.12% |
| 1Y returni | +33.49% | +37.92% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | AAPL | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.45K (+34.5%) started 2025-09-08 | $13.69K (+36.9%) started 2025-09-08 |
| 5Y ago | $21.62K (+116.2%) started 2021-09-09 | $104.26K (+942.6%) started 2021-09-09 |
| 10Y ago | $147.42K (+1374.2%) started 2016-09-09 | $1.6M (+15896.7%) started 2016-09-09 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | AAPL | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $4.67T | $5.25T |
| Trailing P/Ei | 36.62 | 27.47 |
| Forward P/Ei | 33.52 | 14.21 |
| Price/Salesi | 11.01 | 23.66 |
| EV/Revenuei | 10.04 | 17.23 |
| Analyst targeti | $324.45 | $323.42 |
| Target upsidei | +1.49% | +48.66% |
| Metric | AAPL | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 16.40% | 105.90% |
| Earnings growthi | 28.70% | 127.80% |
| EPS growthi | +28.70% | +127.80% |
| FCF margini | +23.08% | +13.80% |
| Operating margini | 32.62% | 66.24% |
| Profit margini | 27.62% | 63.66% |
| ROIC proxyi | 148.75% | 117.21% |
| Return on equityi | 148.75% | 117.21% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.34% | 0.46% |
| Betai | 1.09 | 2.21 |
| Debt/equityi | 78.44 | 16.97 |
| Current ratioi | 1.00 | 4.59 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.81 | 2.92 |
Over the past year, AAPL and NVDA have moved barely in the same direction (correlation of 0.09), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | AAPL | NVDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +34.51% | +36.87% |
| CAGRi | +34.60% | +36.97% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.03% | 38.00% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.14 | 0.90 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.65 | 1.35 | |
| Max drawdowni | 13.82% | 20.22% | |
| Current drawdowni | 5.91% | 2.28% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.87% | 8.77% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.37% | 10.09% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.35% | 6.20% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.94% | 10.72% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +111.90% | +940.68% |
| CAGRi | +16.22% | +59.81% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.06% | 52.02% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.52 | 1.08 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.76 | 1.67 | |
| Max drawdowni | 33.36% | 66.34% | |
| Current drawdowni | 5.91% | 2.28% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.19% | 16.72% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.75% | 24.20% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.25% | 16.97% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.75% | 22.20% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1250.18% | +15636.29% |
| CAGRi | +29.74% | +65.87% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.15% | 50.05% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.89 | 1.17 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.30 | 1.79 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.52% | 66.34% | |
| Current drawdowni | 5.91% | 2.28% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.11% | 15.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.19% | 22.78% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.86% | 18.76% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.75% | 28.36% |
| Category | AAPL | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Apple Inc. | NVIDIA Corporation |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Consumer Electronics | Semiconductors |
| Core business | Designer and manufacturer of consumer electronics including iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, and Vision Pro. Operates a high-margin services ecosystem spanning the App Store, Apple Music, iCloud, Apple TV+, and Apple Pay with over 2 billion active devices worldwide. | Dominant designer of GPUs and accelerated computing platforms for AI training and inference. Data center segment generates over 85% of revenue through AI chips, networking, and the CUDA software ecosystem. Also serves gaming, automotive, and robotics markets. |
| Investor focus | iPhone replacement cycles, Services revenue growth and margin expansion, Apple Intelligence AI adoption, Vision Pro traction, and capital return via buybacks and dividends. | Data center revenue growth, Blackwell and Rubin architecture adoption, gross margin sustainability, competitive threats from custom ASICs, and expansion into inference and edge AI workloads. |
- Unmatched consumer brand loyalty with a 2B+ active device installed base generating recurring services revenue
- Services segment delivers 70%+ gross margins and is growing faster than hardware, improving the overall margin mix
- Industry-leading capital return program with over $100 billion in annual buybacks and a growing dividend
- Dominant 80%+ market share in AI training accelerators with deep CUDA software ecosystem moat
- Gross margins above 70% reflect extraordinary pricing power in a supply-constrained market
- Each new GPU architecture (Blackwell, Rubin) extends the technology lead and drives upgrade cycles across the installed base
- iPhone still represents roughly half of total revenue, creating concentration risk around upgrade cycles
- Regulatory challenges to App Store fees in the EU and US could structurally reduce services margins
- China market headwinds from Huawei competition and geopolitical risk affect a key growth region
- Revenue heavily concentrated in data center AI chips, creating cyclical risk if hyperscaler capex slows
- Custom ASIC competition from Google, Amazon, and Microsoft could erode share in inference workloads
- Premium valuation leaves little room for execution missteps or demand disappointments
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