AAPL vs NVDA: Consumer Ecosystem Durability vs AI Semiconductor Hypergrowth: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Apple is the world's most valuable consumer technology franchise, generating predictable cash flows from a massive installed base and high-margin services. NVIDIA is the dominant AI infrastructure chipmaker, delivering hypergrowth as the AI compute buildout accelerates. Apple offers stability and capital returns; NVIDIA offers explosive growth tied to AI infrastructure spending.
Use this AAPL vs NVDA comparison to evaluate two different mega-cap technology archetypes: Apple's mature consumer ecosystem compounding through services and buybacks versus NVIDIA's AI semiconductor hypergrowth driven by data center GPU demand.
NVDA holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. AAPL has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+34.54% vs +17.02%), though NVDA has the better forward P/E setup (14.21x vs 34.70x for AAPL). NVDA leads on both revenue growth (105.90%) and operating margin (66.24%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NVDA (+48.66%) than for AAPL (-1.99%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Prefer a lower-volatility mega-cap with predictable earnings and best-in-class capital returns
- Want exposure to a consumer ecosystem with 2B+ devices and a growing services revenue stream
- Believe Apple Intelligence will drive a meaningful iPhone upgrade cycle in 2026-2027
- Value dividend growth and massive share buybacks as core components of total return
- Want the most direct equity exposure to the multi-year AI infrastructure buildout
- Are comfortable with higher valuation and higher beta in exchange for 50%+ revenue growth
- Believe AI compute demand will remain supply-constrained for several more years
- Value NVIDIA's 70%+ gross margins and CUDA ecosystem as signs of a durable competitive moat
| Metric | AAPL | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 60.4 | 88.3 |
| AI ranki | #142 | #4 |
| Latest closei | $347.73 | $210.96 |
| 1M returni | +3.18% | -6.45% |
| 3M returni | +4.42% | +1.99% |
| 6M returni | +28.29% | +1.29% |
| 1Y returni | +34.54% | +17.02% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | AAPL | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.4K (+34.0%) started 2025-10-23 | $11.58K (+15.8%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $24.36K (+143.6%) started 2021-10-25 | $91.4K (+814.0%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $140.44K (+1304.4%) started 2016-10-24 | $1.23M (+12231.2%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | AAPL | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $4.85T | $5.25T |
| Trailing P/Ei | 38.15 | 27.47 |
| Forward P/Ei | 34.70 | 14.21 |
| Price/Salesi | 11.01 | 23.66 |
| EV/Revenuei | 10.44 | 17.23 |
| Analyst targeti | $325.66 | $323.42 |
| Target upsidei | -1.99% | +48.66% |
| Metric | AAPL | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 16.40% | 105.90% |
| Earnings growthi | 28.70% | 127.80% |
| EPS growthi | +28.70% | +127.80% |
| FCF margini | +23.08% | +13.80% |
| Operating margini | 32.62% | 66.24% |
| Profit margini | 27.62% | 63.66% |
| ROIC proxyi | 148.75% | 117.21% |
| Return on equityi | 148.75% | 117.21% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.33% | 0.46% |
| Payout ratioi | 12.04% | 3.54% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.08 | 2.21 |
| Debt/equityi | 78.44 | 16.97 |
| Current ratioi | 1.00 | 4.59 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.81 | 2.92 |
Over the past year, AAPL and NVDA have moved barely in the same direction (correlation of 0.06), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | AAPL | NVDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +33.96% | +15.81% |
| CAGRi | +34.01% | +15.83% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.03% | 37.60% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.16 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.66 | 0.68 | |
| Max drawdowni | 13.82% | 20.22% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.14% | 11.82% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.87% | 9.21% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.38% | 10.31% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.35% | 6.20% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.94% | 10.72% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +138.69% | +812.35% |
| CAGRi | +19.03% | +55.68% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.02% | 51.94% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.60 | 1.03 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.88 | 1.59 | |
| Max drawdowni | 33.36% | 66.34% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.14% | 11.82% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.05% | 16.76% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.71% | 24.20% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.25% | 16.97% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.75% | 22.20% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1186.23% | +12030.47% |
| CAGRi | +29.11% | +61.60% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.13% | 50.06% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.87 | 1.12 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.28 | 1.71 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.52% | 66.34% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.14% | 11.82% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.11% | 15.52% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.19% | 22.78% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.86% | 18.76% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.75% | 28.36% |
| Category | AAPL | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Apple Inc. | NVIDIA Corporation |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Consumer Electronics | Semiconductors |
| Core business | Designer and manufacturer of consumer electronics including iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, and Vision Pro. Operates a high-margin services ecosystem spanning the App Store, Apple Music, iCloud, Apple TV+, and Apple Pay with over 2 billion active devices worldwide. | Dominant designer of GPUs and accelerated computing platforms for AI training and inference. Data center segment generates over 85% of revenue through AI chips, networking, and the CUDA software ecosystem. Also serves gaming, automotive, and robotics markets. |
| Investor focus | iPhone replacement cycles, Services revenue growth and margin expansion, Apple Intelligence AI adoption, Vision Pro traction, and capital return via buybacks and dividends. | Data center revenue growth, Blackwell and Rubin architecture adoption, gross margin sustainability, competitive threats from custom ASICs, and expansion into inference and edge AI workloads. |
- Unmatched consumer brand loyalty with a 2B+ active device installed base generating recurring services revenue
- Services segment delivers 70%+ gross margins and is growing faster than hardware, improving the overall margin mix
- Industry-leading capital return program with over $100 billion in annual buybacks and a growing dividend
- Dominant 80%+ market share in AI training accelerators with deep CUDA software ecosystem moat
- Gross margins above 70% reflect extraordinary pricing power in a supply-constrained market
- Each new GPU architecture (Blackwell, Rubin) extends the technology lead and drives upgrade cycles across the installed base
- iPhone still represents roughly half of total revenue, creating concentration risk around upgrade cycles
- Regulatory challenges to App Store fees in the EU and US could structurally reduce services margins
- China market headwinds from Huawei competition and geopolitical risk affect a key growth region
- Revenue heavily concentrated in data center AI chips, creating cyclical risk if hyperscaler capex slows
- Custom ASIC competition from Google, Amazon, and Microsoft could erode share in inference workloads
- Premium valuation leaves little room for execution missteps or demand disappointments
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