UPST vs AFRM Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Upstart and Affirm are both AI-powered fintech lenders but with different models. Upstart focuses on AI underwriting for personal and auto loans through bank partners in a capital-light fee model. Affirm focuses on BNPL installment lending at point-of-sale through merchant integrations, holding loans on its own balance sheet. Both are highly sensitive to interest rate environments and consumer credit quality. Affirm's merchant integration breadth (Amazon, Shopify) creates more structural moat than Upstart's bank-dependent model.
UPST vs AFRM is the AI credit underwriting platform earning fees through bank partner loan originations with capital-light model dependent on institutional lending appetite (Upstart) versus the BNPL installment lender deeply integrated at Amazon and Shopify checkouts holding loans on balance sheet with transparent consumer credit model (Affirm) — bank-dependent AI underwriting fees vs merchant-integrated consumer installment credit.
AFRM holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. AFRM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-20.80% vs -63.26%), though UPST has the better forward P/E setup (8.28x vs 14.45x for AFRM). On fundamentals, UPST is growing revenue faster (42.30%), while AFRM maintains the higher operating margin (12.63%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for UPST (+43.41%) than for AFRM (+39.12%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer speculative AI lending exposure betting that Upstart's machine learning underwriting genuinely outperforms FICO and will prove itself through a full credit cycle
- value Upstart's capital-light fee model theoretically — if bank partners provide consistent capital, Upstart scales without balance sheet credit risk
- want high-beta fintech exposure to an AI underwriting thesis that could transform credit access if the model performs as claimed
- are comfortable with demonstrated 80%+ revenue collapse when bank partners withdrew capital in 2022-2023, credit cycle performance uncertainty, and high share price volatility
- prefer BNPL market leader with deep merchant integrations at Amazon, Shopify, and Walmart creating structural checkout financing moat
- value Affirm's transparent simple-interest model and consumer brand differentiation vs late-fee-charging BNPL competitors
- want fintech exposure to installment consumer lending with expanding merchant checkout presence and Debit+ card everyday spending expansion
- are comfortable with BNPL credit risk from consumer loans held on balance sheet, BNPL commoditization from banks and competitors, and the profitability timeline tension between growth and credit quality
| Metric | UPST | AFRM |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 24.6 | 27.0 |
| AI ranki | #3210 | #2492 |
| Latest closei | $25.00 | $71.21 |
| 1M returni | -18.30% | -7.91% |
| 6M returni | -3.77% | +60.27% |
| 1Y returni | -63.26% | -20.80% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | UPST | AFRM |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $3.67K (-63.3%) started 2025-09-18 | $7.92K (-20.8%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $851.88 (-91.5%) started 2021-09-20 | $6.61K (-33.9%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $8.48K (-15.2%) started 2020-12-16 | $7.39K (-26.1%) started 2021-01-13 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | UPST | AFRM |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $2.74B | $24.11B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 54.17 | 12.92 |
| Forward P/Ei | 8.28 | 14.45 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.38 | 7.61 |
| Analyst targeti | $40.40 | $99.39 |
| Target upsidei | +43.41% | +39.12% |
| Metric | UPST | AFRM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 42.30% | 33.00% |
| Earnings growthi | 211.20% | 2186.90% |
| EPS growthi | +211.20% | +2186.90% |
| FCF margini | -10.30% | +11.23% |
| Operating margini | 7.20% | 12.63% |
| Profit margini | 4.69% | 45.29% |
| ROIC proxyi | 7.94% | 45.13% |
| Return on equityi | 7.94% | 45.13% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 2.17 | 3.61 |
| Debt/equityi | 258.01 | 182.77 |
| Current ratioi | 10.46 | 11.98 |
| Quick ratioi | 2.39 | 8.36 |
Over the past year, UPST and AFRM have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.72), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | UPST | AFRM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -63.26% | -20.80% |
| CAGRi | -63.29% | -20.81% | |
| Volatilityi | 65.40% | 59.44% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.27 | -0.17 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.70 | -0.25 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.41% | 53.86% | |
| Current drawdowni | 63.26% | 22.75% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 46.44% | 26.07% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 48.54% | 28.56% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.04% | 11.99% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.77% | 17.52% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -91.48% | -33.88% |
| CAGRi | -38.93% | -7.95% | |
| Volatilityi | 102.42% | 92.30% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.01 | 0.32 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.01 | 0.48 | |
| Max drawdowni | 96.90% | 94.71% | |
| Current drawdowni | 93.59% | 57.74% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 85.72% | 71.31% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 87.23% | 73.86% | |
| Max daily dropi | 56.42% | 22.63% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 70.08% | 53.94% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -15.17% | -26.10% |
| CAGRi | -2.82% | -5.19% | |
| Volatilityi | 111.70% | 93.89% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.47 | 0.35 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.78 | 0.55 | |
| Max drawdowni | 96.90% | 94.71% | |
| Current drawdowni | 93.59% | 57.74% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 76.93% | 68.00% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 81.76% | 71.15% | |
| Max daily dropi | 56.42% | 22.63% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 70.08% | 53.94% |
| Category | UPST | AFRM |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Upstart Holdings, Inc. | Affirm Holdings, Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Credit Services | Credit Services |
| Core business | Upstart is an AI-powered lending platform that uses machine learning to underwrite personal loans, auto loans, and home equity loans beyond traditional FICO scores. Upstart's AI model uses 1,500+ variables to assess creditworthiness, claiming to approve more borrowers at lower default rates than FICO-based underwriting. Upstart originates loans through bank and credit union partners, earning fees on each loan facilitated. Upstart's model depends on bank and credit union capital — when institutional lending appetite contracts during rising rate environments, Upstart's loan volume collapses. | Affirm provides buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) installment loans at point of sale for consumer purchases, with merchant integrations at Shopify, Amazon, Walmart, and thousands of other retailers. Unlike competitors (Klarna, Afterpay), Affirm focuses on transparent simple-interest loans with no late fees and credit bureau reporting. Affirm's Debit+ card extends BNPL functionality to everyday purchases. Affirm earns revenue from merchant fees (for providing conversion-boosting financing options at checkout) and consumer interest income. |
| Investor focus | Investors track loan origination volume, bank/credit union lending partner count, conversion rate (applications to approvals), and default rate performance vs FICO-based benchmarks. | Investors track gross merchandise volume (GMV), active merchant count, active consumer count, revenue less transaction costs (RLTC), and credit performance across Affirm's loan portfolio. |
- AI underwriting model claims to identify creditworthy borrowers that FICO scores would reject — potentially expanding credit access while maintaining lower default rates
- Capital-light model: Upstart earns fees from originations without holding loans on balance sheet — the bank partner holds credit risk
- Auto loan expansion broadens Upstart's addressable market from personal loans ($100B) to auto loans ($700B+ annually)
- Merchant integration depth is Affirm's primary moat — Shopify, Amazon, and Walmart embedding Affirm's BNPL at checkout creates sticky merchant relationships and massive transaction volume
- Transparent no-late-fee model differentiates Affirm from Klarna and Afterpay — consumer trust through credit transparency may drive brand preference
- Debit+ card extends BNPL beyond installment purchases to everyday spending — expanding Affirm's addressable transaction volume
- Upstart's model is unproven through a full credit cycle — the 2022-2023 period showed that Upstart's AI underwriting performed poorly when interest rates rose sharply and consumer credit deteriorated
- Loan volumes are highly sensitive to bank partner appetite — institutional lending partners withdrew capital during 2022-2023 rate spike, causing Upstart revenue to collapse 80%+
- Upstart must hold loans on its own balance sheet when partner funding dries up — creating credit risk that a 'fee model' company should theoretically not have
- BNPL is increasingly commoditized — banks (Chase Pay Later, Apple Pay Later before discontinuation) and competitors (Klarna, Afterpay, PayPal Pay Later) all offer similar point-of-sale financing
- Affirm holds loans on its own balance sheet, creating credit risk that rises during economic downturns — consumer BNPL delinquencies spike in recessions
- Affirm's path to profitability depends on scaling RLTC while managing credit losses — the credit quality vs growth tradeoff is a constant tension
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