LIVE
MA
Mastercard Incorporated · Technology - Payment Networks
$489.79
-1.98% this month
VERSUS
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COMPARE
PYPL
PayPal Holdings, Inc. · Technology - Digital Payments
$42.51
-3.01% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
MA
4
PYPL
1
Comparison scoreboard
MA LEADS 4/5AI Score
MA ✓50.4
PYPL 39.2
1Y Return
MA ✓-13.99%
PYPL -39.85%
Fwd P/E
MA 21.51
PYPL ✓7.21
Target Up.
MA ✓+31.62%
PYPL +24.11%
Op. Margin
MA ✓60.84%
PYPL 17.97%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
MA vs PYPL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
MA (Mastercard) and PYPL (PayPal) both operate in digital payments but at different layers — Mastercard is a network-level infrastructure company earning fees on the volume of card transactions regardless of which bank or digital wallet is used, while PayPal is an application-layer digital wallet competing at the consumer and merchant interface level. Mastercard's duopoly position provides more durable competitive advantages; PayPal faces more direct competition in its digital wallet business.
MA vs PYPL is payment network infrastructure duopoly (Mastercard's near-monopoly position in the global card rails that every digital wallet and bank uses) versus digital wallet and payment application competition (PayPal's consumer and merchant platform competing in a more contested market against Apple Pay, Google Pay, Stripe, and bank-owned alternatives) — infrastructure versus application layer payments.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
MA holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MA has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-13.99% vs -39.85%), though PYPL trades at the lower forward P/E (7.21x vs 21.51x). MA leads on both revenue growth (15.80%) and operating margin (60.84%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MA (+31.62%) than for PYPL (+24.11%).
Normalized 1Y performance
MA
PYPL
Recent returns
MA
PYPL
Analyst price targets & sentiment
MA · 38 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.8/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$500.00
analyst high$690.00
analyst mean$644.89
current price$489.79
+31.6% upside to analyst mean
PYPL · 38 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.3/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$49.00
analyst high$120.00
analyst mean$51.54
current price$42.51
+24.1% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
MA may suit investors who:
- →Want the most competitively advantaged position in global payments — Mastercard's network duopoly with Visa means virtually every card transaction (credit, debit, prepaid) runs through one of two networks, creating an extraordinarily durable fee-generating infrastructure
- →Value Mastercard's asset-light model with 55%+ operating margins and near-zero marginal cost for additional transaction volume as generating exceptional returns on invested capital
- →See global consumer spending growth, card payment adoption in emerging markets, and cross-border transaction recovery as long-term tailwinds for Mastercard's volume-based fee model
PYPL may suit investors who:
- →Want digital payments application layer exposure with PayPal's two-sided network of 430M+ consumers and millions of merchants representing a large installed base for monetization
- →Value Venmo's social payment network as a differentiated engagement platform with monetization runway through debit card products, buy now pay later, and merchant checkout acceptance
- →See PayPal's valuation compression as creating a potentially attractive entry point for a business with durable digital payments infrastructure if management executes on engagement improvement
Performance & AI score
| Metric | MA | PYPL |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 50.4 | 39.2 |
| AI rank | #447 | #1180 |
| Latest close | $489.79 | $42.51 |
| 1M return | -1.98% | -3.01% |
| 6M return | -13.38% | -29.36% |
| 1Y return | -13.99% | -39.85% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MA | PYPL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.09K (-9.1%) started 2025-06-18 | $6.2K (-38.0%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $13.75K (+37.5%) started 2021-06-21 | $1.5K (-85.0%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $57.83K (+478.3%) started 2016-06-20 | $11.53K (+15.3%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | MA | PYPL |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $432.94B | $36.63B |
| Trailing P/E | 28.32 | 7.79 |
| Forward P/E | 21.51 | 7.21 |
| Price/Sales | 18.43 | 2.24 |
| EV/Revenue | 13.07 | 1.16 |
| Analyst target | $644.89 | $51.54 |
| Target upside | +31.62% | +24.11% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | MA | PYPL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 15.80% | 7.20% |
| Earnings growth | 21.20% | -6.20% |
| EPS growth | +21.20% | -6.20% |
| FCF margin | +47.58% | +12.10% |
| Operating margin | 60.84% | 17.97% |
| Profit margin | 45.88% | 15.00% |
| ROIC proxy | 232.08% | 25.12% |
| Return on equity | 232.08% | 25.12% |
| Dividend yield | 0.71% | 1.35% |
| Beta | 0.74 | 1.34 |
| Debt/equity | 282.06 | 58.28 |
| Current ratio | 0.98 | 1.26 |
| Quick ratio | 0.56 | 0.22 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
MA max drawdown21.27%
PYPL max drawdown50.04%
MA max wkly drop6.45%
PYPL max wkly drop24.88%
5Y risk snapshot
MA max drawdown28.25%
PYPL max drawdown87.33%
MA max wkly drop13.28%
PYPL max wkly drop31.59%
10Y risk snapshot
MA max drawdown41.00%
PYPL max drawdown87.33%
MA max wkly drop21.70%
PYPL max wkly drop31.59%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | MA | PYPL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -9.08% | -38.00% |
| CAGR | -9.10% | -38.05% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.55 | -1.14 | |
| Max drawdown | 21.27% | 50.04% | |
| Max daily drop | 5.77% | 20.31% | |
| Max wkly drop | 6.45% | 24.88% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +34.36% | -84.98% |
| CAGR | +6.09% | -31.60% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.18 | -0.80 | |
| Max drawdown | 28.25% | 87.33% | |
| Max daily drop | 7.69% | 24.59% | |
| Max wkly drop | 13.28% | 31.59% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +447.61% | +15.33% |
| CAGR | +18.55% | +1.44% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.60 | 0.12 | |
| Max drawdown | 41.00% | 87.33% | |
| Max daily drop | 12.73% | 24.59% | |
| Max wkly drop | 21.70% | 31.59% |
Business comparison
| Category | MA | PYPL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Mastercard Incorporated | PayPal Holdings, Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Credit Services | Credit Services |
| Core business | Mastercard operates a global four-party payment network connecting cardholders (consumers), issuing banks (that issue cards), merchants, and acquiring banks (that accept cards) — earning network fees based on transaction volume (Gross Dollar Volume) and number of transactions processed. Mastercard does not extend credit or hold deposits; it provides the network infrastructure and earns fees for payment processing services. | PayPal is a leading digital payments platform — operating PayPal (online checkout and peer-to-peer payments), Venmo (social P2P payment network), Braintree (developer-centric payment processing for enterprises), Hyperwallet (payouts to gig workers and businesses), and Xoom (international remittances). PayPal enables merchants to accept digital payments and consumers to pay, store value, and transfer money. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Mastercard's Gross Dollar Volume (total payment volume through the network), transaction count, net revenue growth, cross-border volume (higher fee rate than domestic), services revenue (value-added data analytics and security services), and operating margin (consistently above 55%). | Investors track PayPal's total payment volume (TPV), transaction margin (revenue minus credit losses and transaction costs as a percentage of TPV), monthly active accounts, Venmo monetization progress, and management's initiatives to improve user engagement and revenue per active account (ARPU). |
MA strengths
- →Duopoly pricing power with Visa — Mastercard and Visa together process the vast majority of global card payments, creating a network effect duopoly that is extremely difficult to displace; merchants must accept both cards because consumers carry both
- →Asset-light technology business model — Mastercard collects fees on transactions processed through its network without extending credit or holding deposits; operating margins are extraordinary (55%+) because marginal cost of additional transactions is near zero
- →Cross-border transaction exposure — international travel and e-commerce generate cross-border transactions that earn higher fee rates than domestic transactions; global travel recovery directly benefits Mastercard's highest-margin revenue
PYPL strengths
- →Two-sided network with 430M+ active accounts — PayPal's consumer accounts create merchant demand and vice versa; the large active account base provides a closed-loop payment network with data advantages
- →Venmo social payments leadership in the U.S. — Venmo has become the dominant P2P payments app for younger Americans; monetizing Venmo's engaged user base through card products and merchant checkout is a multi-year growth opportunity
- →Braintree enterprise payment processing — serving large platforms (Uber, Airbnb) and e-commerce merchants with developer-friendly payment APIs provides high-volume processing revenue independent of PayPal consumer wallet adoption
Risks to watch — MA
- →Regulatory risk on interchange fees — regulators in Europe, the U.S., and elsewhere periodically scrutinize and attempt to cap interchange fees, which fund the issuing bank economics of the card system and indirectly support network volumes
- →Fintech disintermediation risk — alternative payment methods (PayPal, Venmo, Apple Pay, real-time payment rails like FedNow, RTP) are growing, potentially bypassing Mastercard's network for certain transaction types
- →Competition from Visa remains friendly but constant — both networks compete for card issuance with banks and co-brand partnerships with airlines, retailers, and others; winning attractive portfolio issuers is critical to maintaining volume growth
Risks to watch — PYPL
- →Transaction margin compression — PayPal has faced competitive pressure from Stripe, Adyen, and Apple Pay/Google Pay resulting in margin compression as pricing normalizes in merchant payment processing
- →Active account engagement — a large portion of PayPal's accounts are low-engagement; improving ARPU requires users to engage more frequently and use more PayPal products (credit, crypto, buy now pay later)
- →Competition is intensifying on all fronts — Apple Pay and Google Pay for consumer checkout, Stripe for merchant processing, Zelle for P2P, and banks building their own digital wallets all pressure PayPal's market position
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