LIVE
CRCL
Circle Internet Group · Financial Technology
$62.96
-19.12% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
MSTR
Strategy, Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) · Financial Technology
$97.55
-21.31% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
CRCL
1
MSTR
2
Comparison scoreboard
MSTR LEADS 2/5AI Score
CRCL 22.4
MSTR ✓46.9
1Y Return
CRCL ✓-69.24%
MSTR -78.37%
Fwd P/E
CRCL 33.25
MSTR N/A
Target Up.
CRCL +98.44%
MSTR ✓+211.27%
Op. Margin
CRCL N/A
MSTR N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 7/14/2026
Quick take
CRCL vs MSTR: Circle vs Strategy (MicroStrategy) Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Circle is a stablecoin infrastructure company earning reserve income on dollar-backed USDC supply, while Strategy is a leveraged Bitcoin treasury that borrows money to buy Bitcoin. Circle's thesis is regulated stablecoin adoption; Strategy's thesis is Bitcoin appreciation. Both are crypto-related but in almost opposite ways — Circle avoids crypto price risk; Strategy maximizes it.
CRCL vs MSTR is stablecoin infrastructure income versus leveraged Bitcoin appreciation bet — Circle wins in a stable or higher rate environment with growing stablecoin adoption; Strategy wins if Bitcoin appreciates substantially beyond its leverage cost of capital.
Live analysis · updated 7/14/2026
MSTR holds the edge across 2 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CRCL has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-69.24% vs -78.37% for MSTR). Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MSTR (+211.27%) than for CRCL (+98.44%).
Normalized 1Y performance
CRCL
MSTR
Recent returns
CRCL
MSTR
Analyst price targets & sentiment
CRCL · 22 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.1/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$55.00
analyst high$243.00
analyst mean$124.94
current price$62.96
+98.4% upside to analyst mean
MSTR · 14 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Strong Buy (1.3/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$130.00
analyst high$570.00
analyst mean$303.64
current price$97.55
+211.3% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
CRCL may suit investors who:
- →want crypto exposure without Bitcoin price volatility
- →prefer a stablecoin infrastructure business with reserve income model
- →believe regulated stablecoins become mainstream financial infrastructure
- →want a business that benefits from crypto adoption without holding crypto on its balance sheet
MSTR may suit investors who:
- →want maximum leveraged Bitcoin exposure through an equity vehicle
- →believe Bitcoin will appreciate significantly from current levels
- →are comfortable with mark-to-market Bitcoin losses and high balance sheet leverage
- →prefer Bitcoin exposure in a regulated equity security vs directly holding Bitcoin
Performance & AI score
| Metric | CRCL | MSTR |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 22.4 | 46.9 |
| AI rank | #4151 | #669 |
| Latest close | $62.96 | $97.55 |
| 1M return | -19.12% | -21.31% |
| 6M return | -24.05% | -39.87% |
| 1Y return | -69.24% | -78.37% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CRCL | MSTR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $3.08K (-69.2%) started 2025-07-14 | $2.16K (-78.4%) started 2025-07-14 |
| 5Y ago | $7.56K (-24.4%) started 2025-06-05 | $17.41K (+74.1%) started 2021-07-14 |
| 10Y ago | $7.56K (-24.4%) started 2025-06-05 | $53.54K (+435.4%) started 2016-07-14 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | CRCL | MSTR |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $16.83B | $35.37B |
| Trailing P/E | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/E | 33.25 | N/A |
| Price/Sales | 5.88 | 72.12 |
| EV/Revenue | 4.95 | 96.46 |
| Analyst target | $124.94 | $303.64 |
| Target upside | +98.44% | +211.27% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | CRCL | MSTR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 20.00% | 11.90% |
| Earnings growth | -80.90% | N/A |
| EPS growth | -80.90% | N/A |
| FCF margin | -4.94% | -1773.72% |
| Operating margin | N/A | N/A |
| Profit margin | -2.76% | 0.00% |
| ROIC proxy | -2.98% | -30.76% |
| Return on equity | -2.98% | -30.76% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Beta | 2.30 | 3.54 |
| Debt/equity | 0.43 | 18.09 |
| Current ratio | 1.03 | 6.05 |
| Quick ratio | 0.02 | 5.93 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
CRCL max drawdown78.63%
MSTR max drawdown81.95%
CRCL max wkly drop29.00%
MSTR max wkly drop26.86%
5Y risk snapshot
CRCL max drawdown80.93%
MSTR max drawdown84.11%
CRCL max wkly drop31.19%
MSTR max wkly drop54.10%
10Y risk snapshot
CRCL max drawdown80.93%
MSTR max drawdown89.27%
CRCL max wkly drop31.19%
MSTR max wkly drop54.10%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | CRCL | MSTR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -69.24% | -78.37% |
| CAGR | -69.27% | -78.39% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.77 | -1.76 | |
| Max drawdown | 78.63% | 81.95% | |
| Max daily drop | 20.11% | 17.12% | |
| Max wkly drop | 29.00% | 26.86% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -24.35% | +74.06% |
| CAGR | -22.30% | +11.72% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.28 | 0.52 | |
| Max drawdown | 80.93% | 84.11% | |
| Max daily drop | 20.11% | 25.55% | |
| Max wkly drop | 31.19% | 54.10% | |
| 10Y | Growth | -24.35% | +435.37% |
| CAGR | -22.30% | +18.27% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.28 | 0.54 | |
| Max drawdown | 80.93% | 89.27% | |
| Max daily drop | 20.11% | 26.00% | |
| Max wkly drop | 31.19% | 54.10% |
Business comparison
| Category | CRCL | MSTR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Circle Internet Group | Strategy, Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) |
| Sector | Financial Technology | Financial Technology |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Stablecoin infrastructure company issuing USDC — a regulated, dollar-backed stablecoin. Circle's business model is based on reserve income and platform services, not on holding cryptocurrency assets. | Strategy is effectively a Bitcoin treasury company, having shifted from enterprise analytics software to primarily purchasing and holding Bitcoin. The company holds over 550,000 Bitcoin on its balance sheet (as of mid-2026) and issues equity and debt to fund additional Bitcoin purchases. |
| Investor focus | USDC supply growth, reserve yield, regulatory framework for stablecoins, and whether USDC expands from crypto-native to mainstream payment use cases. | Bitcoin price, Bitcoin holdings per share (BTC yield), leverage on Bitcoin position, and ability to continue issuing capital to buy more Bitcoin at favorable terms. |
CRCL strengths
- →USDC is a stable-value digital asset, so Circle's business is not directly exposed to crypto price volatility
- →Reserve income is relatively predictable given known interest rate environment and USDC outstanding
- →Regulatory compliance positioning makes Circle better positioned than Tether for institutional adoption
MSTR strengths
- →Strategy offers institutional investors leveraged Bitcoin exposure through a regulated equity security
- →Michael Saylor's conviction and consistent Bitcoin purchasing has established Strategy as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder
- →If Bitcoin appreciates significantly, the equity leverage amplifies returns for shareholders
Risks to watch — CRCL
- →Lower interest rates reduce reserve income — the core revenue driver
- →USDC growth may be limited if crypto market activity slows
- →Regulatory changes could affect stablecoin economics or require costly structural adjustments
Risks to watch — MSTR
- →Bitcoin price decline creates enormous mark-to-market losses and potential debt covenant pressure
- →Strategy is a highly leveraged bet on Bitcoin — downside is amplified as much as upside
- →Underlying analytics software business is small and declining, providing minimal fundamental support
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