SPCX vs IRDM Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SpaceX is evaluated as a dominant, high-growth launch and broadband operator commanding a premium valuation, while Iridium is assessed as a mature, cash-generative satellite communications provider with a stable government revenue base. The comparison contrasts a scaled growth leader against an established niche operator with more predictable cash flows.
Use this comparison to weigh SpaceX's scale and growth premium against Iridium's steadier, government-anchored cash flow profile in satellite communications.
IRDM holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SPCX has delivered stronger 3-month price return (+13.36% vs -3.48%), though IRDM has the better forward P/E setup (27.32x vs 87.68x for SPCX). On fundamentals, SPCX is growing revenue faster (91.90%), while IRDM maintains the higher operating margin (15.10%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SPCX (+58.00%) than for IRDM (-10.35%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the dominant global launch and satellite broadband leader
- Believe Starlink and Starship represent multi-decade growth opportunities
- Are comfortable paying a premium valuation for market leadership
- Seek diversified exposure across launch, broadband, and future space infrastructure
- Prefer a mature satellite operator with predictable free cash flow
- Value a long-standing government contract as a revenue anchor
- Want lower capital intensity now that the constellation is fully built
- Are comfortable with more modest growth in exchange for stability
| Metric | SPCX | IRDM |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 32.3 | 42.0 |
| AI ranki | N/A | #896 |
| Latest closei | $148.62 | $44.99 |
| 1M returni | +3.58% | -4.46% |
| 3M returni | +13.36% | -3.48% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SPCX | IRDM |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.23K (-7.7%) started 2026-06-12 | $24.03K (+140.3%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $9.23K (-7.7%) started 2026-06-12 | $11.36K (+13.6%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $9.23K (-7.7%) started 2026-06-12 | $53.12K (+431.2%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SPCX | IRDM |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $1.85T | $4.97B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 54.48 |
| Forward P/Ei | 87.68 | 27.32 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 160.10 | 7.41 |
| Analyst targeti | $222.32 | $42.00 |
| Target upsidei | +58.00% | -10.35% |
| Metric | SPCX | IRDM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 91.90% | 3.80% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | -55.00% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | -55.00% |
| FCF margini | N/A | +27.05% |
| Operating margini | -1.80% | 15.10% |
| Profit margini | -35.66% | 10.55% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | 19.71% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | 19.71% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 1.28% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 68.18% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | N/A | 0.88 |
| Debt/equityi | 31.21 | 378.66 |
| Current ratioi | 5.12 | 2.78 |
| Quick ratioi | 4.95 | 2.13 |
Over the past year, SPCX and IRDM have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.22), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SPCX | IRDM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -7.66% | +140.33% |
| CAGRi | -20.78% | +140.72% | |
| Volatilityi | 83.26% | 61.39% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.08 | 1.65 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.12 | 3.20 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 20.39% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.69% | 19.26% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.74% | 8.77% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.25% | 10.76% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 9.11% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 13.89% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -7.66% | +13.58% |
| CAGRi | -20.78% | +2.58% | |
| Volatilityi | 83.26% | 46.24% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.08 | 0.19 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.12 | 0.28 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 76.45% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.69% | 33.11% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.74% | 36.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.25% | 44.09% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 22.09% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 29.18% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -7.66% | +431.17% |
| CAGRi | -20.78% | +18.18% | |
| Volatilityi | 83.26% | 46.17% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.08 | 0.50 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.12 | 0.73 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.78% | 76.45% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.69% | 33.11% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.74% | 26.27% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.25% | 34.00% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 22.09% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 29.18% |
| Category | SPCX | IRDM |
|---|---|---|
| Company | SpaceX | Iridium Communications Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Communication Services |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Telecom Services |
| Core business | SpaceX builds and launches reusable rockets and operates the Starlink satellite internet constellation, alongside Starship development for deep-space missions. | Iridium operates a low-earth-orbit satellite constellation providing global voice and data communications for government, maritime, aviation, and IoT customers. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on Starlink subscriber growth, launch cadence and reusability economics, and progress toward Starship's commercial viability. | Investors track government services contract renewals, commercial IoT subscriber growth, and free cash flow generation now that the Iridium NEXT constellation is fully deployed. |
- Dominant share of global commercial launch capacity
- Starlink is the largest satellite broadband network with recurring subscription revenue
- Vertically integrated manufacturing lowering per-launch cost versus competitors
- Fully deployed, next-generation satellite constellation with low incremental capex
- Long-standing government services contract providing revenue stability
- Growing IoT and commercial data segment with high margins
- Extremely high valuation following its record 2026 IPO
- Heavy capital intensity of Starship and next-generation launch systems
- Regulatory and geopolitical scrutiny of a dominant space infrastructure provider
- Reliance on periodic renewal of its largest government contract
- Emerging competition from new low-earth-orbit broadband entrants including Starlink
- Limited consumer broadband exposure compared to newer satellite entrants
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