RKLB vs RTX Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
RKLB and RTX are both aerospace companies with very little else in common. Rocket Lab is a growth business scaling launch and spacecraft manufacturing and is not yet consistently profitable. RTX is a diversified aerospace and defense manufacturer earning substantial profits from commercial engine aftermarket work and missile production. Rocket Lab's value depends on future scale; RTX's depends on executing a very large existing backlog.
Use this RKLB vs RTX comparison to distinguish thematic exposure from earnings exposure. Rocket Lab gives concentrated exposure to commercial space becoming a larger industry. RTX gives exposure to aircraft flying hours and air defense demand, both of which already generate large profits. The overlap between the two is mostly in the sector label.
RKLB holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. RKLB has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+51.88% vs +17.36%), though RTX has the better forward P/E setup (26.95x vs 1384.99x for RKLB). On fundamentals, RKLB is growing revenue faster (62.00%), while RTX maintains the higher operating margin (12.70%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for RKLB (+75.91%) than for RTX (+10.92%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want direct growth exposure to commercial launch and satellite manufacturing
- Believe Neutron will succeed and materially expand the addressable market
- Accept unprofitability and volatility during the scaling phase
- Are comfortable with a single-theme, higher-risk position
- Want profitable, diversified aerospace and defense exposure
- Value the high-margin commercial aftermarket on a huge installed engine base
- See allied air defense restocking as a multi-year demand driver
- Prefer dividends and backlog visibility over growth potential
| Metric | RKLB | RTX |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 66.3 | 53.5 |
| AI ranki | #62 | #287 |
| Latest closei | $73.95 | $189.40 |
| 1M returni | +11.74% | -10.66% |
| 6M returni | +21.37% | -0.16% |
| 1Y returni | +51.88% | +17.36% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | RKLB | RTX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $15.86K (+58.6%) started 2025-09-25 | $11.8K (+18.0%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $51.64K (+416.4%) started 2021-09-27 | $25.69K (+156.9%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $75.89K (+658.9%) started 2020-11-24 | $45.19K (+351.9%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | RKLB | RTX |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $40.35B | $285.33B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 37.34 |
| Forward P/Ei | 1384.99 | 26.95 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 2.27 |
| EV/Revenuei | 45.83 | 3.40 |
| Analyst targeti | $111.00 | $234.82 |
| Target upsidei | +75.91% | +10.92% |
| Metric | RKLB | RTX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 62.00% | 14.50% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 28.70% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +28.70% |
| FCF margini | -32.76% | +10.57% |
| Operating margini | -24.57% | 12.70% |
| Profit margini | -21.51% | 8.28% |
| ROIC proxyi | -7.92% | 12.27% |
| Return on equityi | -7.92% | 12.27% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 1.38% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 48.77% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 2.63 | 0.29 |
| Debt/equityi | 3.83 | 57.02 |
| Current ratioi | 5.48 | 1.01 |
| Quick ratioi | 4.80 | 0.65 |
Over the past year, RKLB and RTX have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.23), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | RKLB | RTX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +58.59% | +18.00% |
| CAGRi | +58.69% | +18.03% | |
| Volatilityi | 93.54% | 26.15% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.90 | 0.59 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.42 | 0.91 | |
| Max drawdowni | 60.99% | 19.32% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.78% | 16.01% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 26.29% | 6.28% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.26% | 8.61% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.70% | 4.40% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.27% | 11.45% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +416.41% | +135.66% |
| CAGRi | +38.92% | +18.72% | |
| Volatilityi | 79.08% | 24.26% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.75 | 0.65 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.19 | 0.94 | |
| Max drawdowni | 78.32% | 32.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.78% | 16.01% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 46.54% | 7.06% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 53.44% | 9.85% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.11% | 10.22% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 12.34% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +658.93% | +260.87% |
| CAGRi | +41.54% | +13.70% | |
| Volatilityi | 78.65% | 27.95% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.77 | 0.44 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.25 | 0.63 | |
| Max drawdowni | 82.96% | 51.98% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.78% | 16.01% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 46.69% | 9.38% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 54.92% | 13.92% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.60% | 14.48% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 26.15% |
| Category | RKLB | RTX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Rocket Lab Corporation | RTX Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | Small satellite launch provider operating the Electron rocket and developing the larger reusable Neutron vehicle, alongside a Space Systems segment building satellite components and complete spacecraft. | Diversified aerospace and defense company with three businesses: Pratt & Whitney aircraft engines, Collins Aerospace avionics and cabin systems, and Raytheon missiles, air defense, and sensors. Serves both commercial airlines and militaries. |
| Investor focus | Neutron first flight, Electron cadence, Space Systems backlog and margin, and progress toward sustained positive cash flow. | Commercial aftermarket spare parts demand, Pratt & Whitney engine durability costs, missile and air defense production ramp, and backlog conversion. |
- Proven, frequently flying orbital launch capability, a genuinely rare asset
- Space Systems diversifies revenue away from launch timing
- Neutron targets the far larger medium-lift and constellation market
- Large commercial aerospace aftermarket business earns high margins on an installed engine and avionics base
- Air defense and missile demand is elevated as allied inventories are replenished
- Diversification across commercial and defense cushions single-market downturns
- Not consistently profitable while funding a major development programme
- Neutron timelines have slipped before and could again
- Faces a dominant, lower-cost competitor in SpaceX
- Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan powder metal inspections created a costly, multi-year remediation
- Commercial aerospace exposure links results to airline traffic and fleet decisions
- Large fixed-price defense development contracts can generate charges
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