RKLB vs LMT Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
RKLB and LMT sit at opposite ends of the aerospace and defense spectrum. Rocket Lab is a growth company scaling launch and satellite manufacturing, not yet consistently profitable, with a major new rocket in development. Lockheed Martin is a mature, highly profitable defense prime whose revenue is underwritten by government backlog but whose growth is limited by budget arithmetic. One offers growth and execution risk, the other offers earnings and dividends with little growth.
Use this RKLB vs LMT comparison to be honest about what each price implies. Lockheed is valued as a durable cash-generating contractor, so the debate is about margins and capital return. Rocket Lab is valued on future scale, so the debate is about whether Neutron flies successfully and Space Systems margins expand. Those questions have almost nothing in common.
RKLB holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. RKLB has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+51.88% vs +6.85%), though LMT has the better forward P/E setup (17.23x vs 1384.99x for RKLB). On fundamentals, RKLB is growing revenue faster (62.00%), while LMT maintains the higher operating margin (11.96%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for RKLB (+75.91%) than for LMT (+12.25%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want growth exposure to commercial space launch and satellite manufacturing
- Believe Neutron will reach reliable flight and open the medium-lift market
- Accept losses and capital raises during the development phase
- Can tolerate significant volatility around launch outcomes and programme milestones
- Want profitable defense exposure with a large government-backed backlog
- Value a long-standing dividend and consistent share repurchases
- Prefer earnings stability over growth potential
- Are comfortable with heavy dependence on US defense appropriations
| Metric | RKLB | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 66.3 | 52.1 |
| AI ranki | #62 | #367 |
| Latest closei | $73.95 | $519.56 |
| 1M returni | +11.74% | -8.14% |
| 6M returni | +21.37% | -15.63% |
| 1Y returni | +51.88% | +6.85% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | RKLB | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $15.86K (+58.6%) started 2025-09-25 | $10.73K (+7.3%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $51.64K (+416.4%) started 2021-09-27 | $17.82K (+78.2%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $75.89K (+658.9%) started 2020-11-24 | $34.03K (+240.3%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | RKLB | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $40.35B | $130.13B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 20.79 |
| Forward P/Ei | 1384.99 | 17.23 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 1.57 |
| EV/Revenuei | 45.83 | 1.91 |
| Analyst targeti | $111.00 | $632.95 |
| Target upsidei | +75.91% | +12.25% |
| Metric | RKLB | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 62.00% | 10.50% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 443.80% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +443.80% |
| FCF margini | -32.76% | +7.22% |
| Operating margini | -24.57% | 11.96% |
| Profit margini | -21.51% | 8.16% |
| ROIC proxyi | -7.92% | 89.17% |
| Return on equityi | -7.92% | 89.17% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 2.45% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 50.33% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 2.63 | 0.11 |
| Debt/equityi | 3.83 | 234.24 |
| Current ratioi | 5.48 | 1.19 |
| Quick ratioi | 4.80 | 0.97 |
Over the past year, RKLB and LMT have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.20), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | RKLB | LMT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +58.59% | +7.27% |
| CAGRi | +58.69% | +7.28% | |
| Volatilityi | 93.54% | 28.42% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.90 | 0.23 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.42 | 0.35 | |
| Max drawdowni | 60.99% | 27.35% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.78% | 23.22% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 26.29% | 11.79% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.26% | 14.69% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.70% | 4.82% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.27% | 13.30% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +416.41% | +61.54% |
| CAGRi | +38.92% | +10.08% | |
| Volatilityi | 79.08% | 24.07% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.75 | 0.33 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.19 | 0.47 | |
| Max drawdowni | 78.32% | 32.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.78% | 23.22% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 46.54% | 11.34% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 53.44% | 14.11% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.11% | 11.80% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 13.30% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +658.93% | +164.80% |
| CAGRi | +41.54% | +10.23% | |
| Volatilityi | 78.65% | 24.32% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.77 | 0.34 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.25 | 0.48 | |
| Max drawdowni | 82.96% | 36.67% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.78% | 23.22% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 46.69% | 10.12% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 54.92% | 12.84% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.60% | 12.76% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.89% | 19.06% |
| Category | RKLB | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Rocket Lab Corporation | Lockheed Martin Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | Operates the Electron small satellite launch vehicle and is developing the larger, reusable Neutron rocket. Its Space Systems segment, which builds satellite components, spacecraft, and complete satellites, has grown into the larger share of revenue. | The largest Western defense contractor, spanning the F-35 fighter programme, missiles and fire control including PAC-3 interceptors, rotary and mission systems, and space systems. Revenue is overwhelmingly from the US government and allied militaries. |
| Investor focus | Neutron development schedule and first flight, Electron launch cadence, Space Systems backlog and margins, and the path to positive free cash flow. | F-35 deliveries and sustainment economics, munitions production ramp, backlog conversion, classified programme performance, and dividend and buyback capacity. |
- Only Western company besides SpaceX with a repeatedly proven, regularly flying orbital launch vehicle
- Space Systems provides revenue that is less lumpy than launch and builds a components franchise
- Neutron would open access to the much larger medium-lift and constellation market
- Enormous multi-year backlog underwritten by government budgets rather than commercial demand
- Consistently profitable with a long record of dividends and share repurchases
- Missiles and munitions demand is supported by allied restocking and elevated global tension
- Not consistently profitable, and Neutron development consumes significant capital
- Neutron schedule slippage is a recurring risk in a first-time launch vehicle programme
- Competes against SpaceX's cost structure and launch cadence
- Growth is structurally slow, constrained by defense budget growth rates
- Concentration in the F-35 programme creates exposure to its cost and delivery disputes
- Classified and fixed-price development programmes have produced surprise charges
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