BBAI vs AI Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
BigBear.ai is a smaller, more speculative AI software company concentrated in U.S. government and defense decision-intelligence use cases, while C3.ai is a larger, more established enterprise AI platform provider spanning industrial, commercial, and government customers. Both remain unprofitable and are highly sensitive to contract and partnership news flow, but BigBear.ai carries the more concentrated government-contract risk profile.
Use this BBAI vs AI comparison to evaluate two speculative enterprise AI software stocks with different customer bases. BigBear.ai offers concentrated exposure to government and defense AI budgets, while C3.ai offers broader industrial and commercial exposure alongside its own government work.
BBAI holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. AI has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-36.90% vs -72.65%), though BBAI has the better forward P/E setup (-14.35x vs -22.06x for AI). BBAI leads on both revenue growth (13.20%) and operating margin (-74.45%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BBAI (+39.37%) than for AI (-15.47%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want concentrated, higher-beta exposure to U.S. government and defense AI spending
- Believe the Pangiam biometric acquisition can open new identity-verification revenue streams
- Are comfortable with a small-cap, pre-profitability company subject to lumpy government contract timing
- Accept higher dilution risk in exchange for potential contract-driven upside
- Want a larger, more established enterprise AI platform with a longer operating history
- Believe the Microsoft Azure partnership and other distribution deals can diversify revenue
- Prefer broader industrial and commercial exposure alongside government use cases
- Are comfortable with ongoing path-to-profitability risk common across enterprise AI software
| Metric | BBAI | AI |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 23.1 | 22.3 |
| AI ranki | #3604 | #4078 |
| Latest closei | $2.33 | $12.16 |
| 1M returni | -17.38% | +12.70% |
| 3M returni | -20.21% | +36.48% |
| 6M returni | -37.87% | +30.47% |
| 1Y returni | -72.65% | -36.90% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | BBAI | AI |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $2.73K (-72.7%) started 2025-10-15 | $6.31K (-36.9%) started 2025-10-15 |
| 5Y ago | $2.36K (-76.4%) started 2021-10-15 | $2.68K (-73.2%) started 2021-10-15 |
| 10Y ago | $2.37K (-76.3%) started 2021-04-05 | $1.31K (-86.9%) started 2020-12-09 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | BBAI | AI |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $1.38B | $1.69B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | -14.35 | -22.06 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 8.20 | 4.75 |
| Analyst targeti | $4.00 | $8.91 |
| Target upsidei | +39.37% | -15.47% |
| Metric | BBAI | AI |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 13.20% | -25.50% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growthi | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margini | -158.33% | +6.84% |
| Operating margini | -74.45% | -186.29% |
| Profit margini | -65.20% | -192.10% |
| ROIC proxyi | -16.55% | -59.77% |
| Return on equityi | -16.55% | -59.77% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | N/A |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 3.18 | 2.09 |
| Debt/equityi | 2.95 | 8.56 |
| Current ratioi | 5.67 | 6.16 |
| Quick ratioi | 5.39 | 5.96 |
Over the past year, BBAI and AI have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.51), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | BBAI | AI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -72.65% | -36.90% |
| CAGRi | -72.68% | -36.92% | |
| Volatilityi | 78.22% | 58.72% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.33 | -0.57 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.94 | -0.77 | |
| Max drawdowni | 74.41% | 59.73% | |
| Current drawdowni | 72.65% | 36.90% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 49.09% | 41.65% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 51.68% | 43.84% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.95% | 18.53% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.09% | 23.41% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -76.44% | -73.16% |
| CAGRi | -25.11% | -23.13% | |
| Volatilityi | 166.44% | 77.58% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.37 | -0.02 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.83 | -0.03 | |
| Max drawdowni | 95.01% | 84.74% | |
| Current drawdowni | 81.64% | 76.08% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 69.21% | 56.06% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 72.82% | 58.81% | |
| Max daily dropi | 39.62% | 26.34% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 47.33% | 32.83% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -76.30% | -86.85% |
| CAGRi | -22.93% | -29.32% | |
| Volatilityi | 158.10% | 80.35% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.35 | -0.10 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.78 | -0.15 | |
| Max drawdowni | 95.01% | 95.63% | |
| Current drawdowni | 81.64% | 93.15% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 62.51% | 82.65% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 69.17% | 84.01% | |
| Max daily dropi | 39.62% | 26.34% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 47.33% | 32.83% |
| Category | BBAI | AI |
|---|---|---|
| Company | BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. | C3.ai, Inc. |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Information Technology Services | Software - Infrastructure |
| Core business | Provider of AI-powered decision intelligence software primarily for U.S. government, defense, and intelligence customers, including biometric and identity-verification capabilities added through its Pangiam acquisition. | Provider of enterprise AI application software and a model-agnostic AI platform used for predictive maintenance, fraud detection, and other industrial and government use cases, with key partnerships including Microsoft Azure distribution. |
| Investor focus | Government and defense contract wins and backlog, revenue growth, path to profitability, and dilution risk from capital raises. | Revenue growth and mix shift away from historical customer concentration, partnership-driven bookings growth via Azure and other distribution deals, and path to profitability. |
- Deep positioning in U.S. government, defense, and intelligence AI use cases with security clearances and relationships built over years
- Pangiam acquisition adds biometric and identity-verification technology relevant to border security and travel applications
- Potential beneficiary of increased federal government AI adoption and defense modernization spending
- Established enterprise AI platform with long-standing use cases in predictive maintenance and industrial applications
- Strategic distribution partnerships, including with Microsoft Azure, expand reach beyond direct sales
- Larger revenue base and longer operating history than many smaller speculative AI software peers
- Small revenue base and history of losses make the stock highly sensitive to contract win/loss news
- Government budget cycles, continuing resolutions, and procurement delays can create lumpy revenue
- Meaningful share dilution risk from past and potential future capital raises to fund operations
- Historical revenue concentration risk with a small number of large customers/partners
- Continued path to sustained profitability amid heavy sales and marketing spend
- Intensifying competition from both hyperscaler AI platforms and newer specialized AI application vendors
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