IBM vs ORCL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ORCL has transformed into a major AI infrastructure provider through its rapidly growing OCI cloud business with a massive contracted backlog, while IBM offers steadier, more diversified hybrid cloud, consulting, and AI software exposure with a more conservative growth profile. Oracle's AI infrastructure bet carries higher growth potential but also more capital intensity and customer concentration risk.
IBM vs ORCL contrasts a diversified, steady enterprise software and services company against a database giant that has aggressively reinvented itself as a major AI infrastructure provider.
ORCL holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. IBM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-13.38% vs -50.24%), though ORCL has the better forward P/E setup (13.81x vs 17.90x for IBM). ORCL leads on both revenue growth (20.60%) and operating margin (36.20%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ORCL (+61.83%) than for IBM (+3.96%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want diversified exposure across hybrid cloud, consulting, and AI software
- Value Red Hat's open-source hybrid cloud positioning
- Prefer steadier, lower-volatility enterprise technology exposure
- Want direct exposure to the AI infrastructure buildout through OCI
- Believe Oracle's massive backlog signals durable multi-year growth
- Are comfortable with high capital spending and customer concentration risk
| Metric | IBM | ORCL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 39.3 | 50.3 |
| AI ranki | #1266 | #527 |
| Latest closei | $229.55 | $147.61 |
| 1M returni | -3.21% | +2.64% |
| 6M returni | -8.32% | -5.09% |
| 1Y returni | -13.38% | -50.24% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | IBM | ORCL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.66K (-13.4%) started 2025-09-18 | $4.98K (-50.2%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $24.9K (+149.0%) started 2021-09-20 | $19.11K (+91.1%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $36.29K (+262.9%) started 2016-09-19 | $49.82K (+398.2%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | IBM | ORCL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $221.96B | $434.52B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 20.92 | 25.92 |
| Forward P/Ei | 17.90 | 13.81 |
| Price/Salesi | 3.98 | 8.75 |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.04 | 8.54 |
| Analyst targeti | $244.91 | $244.12 |
| Target upsidei | +3.96% | +61.83% |
| Metric | IBM | ORCL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 1.10% | 20.60% |
| Earnings growthi | -1.80% | 21.90% |
| EPS growthi | -1.80% | +21.90% |
| FCF margini | +17.44% | -36.43% |
| Operating margini | 16.55% | 36.20% |
| Profit margini | 15.52% | 25.37% |
| ROIC proxyi | 34.46% | 53.38% |
| Return on equityi | 34.46% | 53.38% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.87% | 1.33% |
| Payout ratioi | 59.77% | 31.35% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.70 | 1.72 |
| Debt/equityi | 188.97 | 388.87 |
| Current ratioi | 0.79 | 1.11 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.61 | 1.01 |
Over the past year, IBM and ORCL have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.23), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | IBM | ORCL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -13.38% | -50.24% |
| CAGRi | -13.39% | -50.26% | |
| Volatilityi | 48.97% | 57.04% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.13 | -1.02 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.17 | -1.44 | |
| Max drawdowni | 37.50% | 64.96% | |
| Current drawdowni | 30.28% | 55.02% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.49% | 43.12% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.26% | 45.70% | |
| Max daily dropi | 25.21% | 10.83% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.08% | 22.10% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +109.56% | +80.80% |
| CAGRi | +15.97% | +12.59% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.42% | 43.79% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.50 | 0.38 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.68 | 0.60 | |
| Max drawdowni | 37.50% | 64.98% | |
| Current drawdowni | 30.28% | 55.04% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.15% | 19.04% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.29% | 25.23% | |
| Max daily dropi | 25.21% | 13.79% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.08% | 22.10% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +127.63% | +331.02% |
| CAGRi | +8.58% | +15.74% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.26% | 36.15% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.28 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.38 | 0.71 | |
| Max drawdowni | 40.59% | 64.98% | |
| Current drawdowni | 30.28% | 55.04% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.63% | 12.30% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.34% | 18.55% | |
| Max daily dropi | 25.21% | 13.79% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.08% | 22.10% |
| Category | IBM | ORCL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | International Business Machines Corporation | Oracle Corporation |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Information Technology Services | Software - Infrastructure |
| Core business | IBM provides enterprise software (including Red Hat hybrid cloud), consulting services, and AI solutions through its watsonx platform, alongside legacy mainframe and infrastructure businesses. | Oracle provides database software, enterprise applications (ERP, HCM), and a rapidly growing cloud infrastructure (OCI) business that has become a major AI training and inference provider for large customers including OpenAI. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Red Hat hybrid cloud growth, watsonx AI platform adoption, consulting segment bookings, and the durability of IBM's mainframe (System z) revenue cycle. | Investors track Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) revenue growth and capacity buildout, remaining performance obligations (RPO) backlog tied to large AI compute contracts, and core database/applications cloud migration. |
- Red Hat acquisition provides strong hybrid cloud and open-source positioning
- Large, sticky enterprise consulting and services relationships
- Mainframe business generates durable, high-margin recurring revenue
- OCI has emerged as a major AI infrastructure provider with massive contracted backlog
- Dominant, sticky enterprise database franchise provides durable cash flow
- Large remaining performance obligations backlog provides multi-year revenue visibility
- Slower overall growth profile than faster-growing cloud-native competitors
- watsonx AI platform still building market share against larger AI platform providers
- Legacy infrastructure businesses face long-term secular pressure
- Massive capital spending required to build out AI data center capacity
- OCI growth increasingly concentrated in a small number of very large AI customers
- High debt levels taken on to fund aggressive infrastructure investment
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