SAP vs ORCL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SAP and Oracle are the two global ERP giants competing for cloud ERP market leadership. SAP's ERP embedded base of 400,000 customers is larger and more diverse; Oracle's Fusion Cloud ERP is growing faster on a net-new customer basis. Oracle also has the advantage of owning both the database infrastructure and the application layer, while SAP focuses exclusively on ERP applications. OCI's AI infrastructure wins add a non-ERP growth vector to Oracle that SAP lacks.
SAP vs ORCL is the ERP world market leader with the deepest on-premises installed base beginning a decade-long S/4HANA cloud migration (SAP) versus the database infrastructure giant with Fusion Cloud ERP growing faster and OCI winning AI GPU infrastructure contracts (Oracle) — ERP installed base migration depth vs database-to-cloud vertical integration with AI infrastructure upside.
ORCL holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SAP has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-21.00% vs -50.24%), though ORCL has the better forward P/E setup (13.81x vs 21.60x for SAP). ORCL leads on both revenue growth (20.60%) and operating margin (36.20%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ORCL (+61.83%) than for SAP (+19.52%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the most deeply embedded ERP franchise with 400,000 global customers whose S/4HANA cloud migration creates the most durable multi-decade cloud conversion revenue tailwind
- value SAP's dominance in manufacturing, logistics, and supply chain ERP — market segments where SAP's functional depth is unmatched by Oracle
- want pure-play ERP cloud migration compounding without the complexity of Oracle's database, infrastructure, and healthcare segments
- are comfortable with S/4HANA migration complexity and timeline risk, Oracle ERP competition in net-new customers, and the gradual decline of legacy ECC maintenance revenue
- prefer Oracle's vertical integration across database infrastructure and cloud ERP applications — customers choosing Oracle get database + application integration that SAP cannot match
- value OCI AI GPU infrastructure wins as a non-ERP growth driver — Oracle's cloud infrastructure is winning AI workloads on price-performance, diversifying beyond ERP
- want exposure to the enterprise software company with both database incumbency and cloud ERP growth plus an emerging AI cloud infrastructure business
- are comfortable with OCI's 4th-place cloud market position, Cerner integration complexity, and Oracle Database's gradual on-premises revenue erosion
| Metric | SAP | ORCL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 37.6 | 50.3 |
| AI ranki | #1458 | #527 |
| Latest closei | $209.45 | $147.61 |
| 1M returni | -2.85% | +2.64% |
| 6M returni | +21.21% | -5.09% |
| 1Y returni | -21.00% | -50.24% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SAP | ORCL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.03K (-19.7%) started 2025-09-18 | $4.98K (-50.2%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $17.82K (+78.2%) started 2021-09-20 | $19.11K (+91.1%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $32.8K (+228.0%) started 2016-09-19 | $49.82K (+398.2%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SAP | ORCL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $241.75B | $434.52B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 27.31 | 25.92 |
| Forward P/Ei | 21.60 | 13.81 |
| Price/Salesi | 6.33 | 8.75 |
| EV/Revenuei | 89.12 | 8.54 |
| Analyst targeti | $250.33 | $244.12 |
| Target upsidei | +19.52% | +61.83% |
| Metric | SAP | ORCL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 9.40% | 20.60% |
| Earnings growthi | 30.60% | 21.90% |
| EPS growthi | +30.60% | +21.90% |
| FCF margini | +23.80% | -36.43% |
| Operating margini | 27.62% | 36.20% |
| Profit margini | 20.41% | 25.37% |
| ROIC proxyi | 18.32% | 53.38% |
| Return on equityi | 18.32% | 53.38% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.40% | 1.33% |
| Payout ratioi | 37.53% | 31.35% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 2 yrs | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.78 | 1.72 |
| Debt/equityi | 21.97 | 388.87 |
| Current ratioi | 1.15 | 1.11 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.98 | 1.01 |
Over the past year, SAP and ORCL have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.27), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SAP | ORCL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -21.00% | -50.24% |
| CAGRi | -21.01% | -50.26% | |
| Volatilityi | 38.90% | 57.04% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.53 | -1.02 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.72 | -1.44 | |
| Max drawdowni | 46.90% | 64.96% | |
| Current drawdowni | 24.02% | 55.02% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 24.90% | 43.12% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 28.35% | 45.70% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.20% | 10.83% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.67% | 22.10% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +63.71% | +80.80% |
| CAGRi | +10.37% | +12.59% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.14% | 43.79% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.33 | 0.38 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.48 | 0.60 | |
| Max drawdowni | 52.26% | 64.98% | |
| Current drawdowni | 31.69% | 55.04% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.12% | 19.04% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.00% | 25.23% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.20% | 13.79% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.67% | 22.10% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +178.03% | +331.02% |
| CAGRi | +10.77% | +15.74% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.92% | 36.15% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.35 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.48 | 0.71 | |
| Max drawdowni | 52.26% | 64.98% | |
| Current drawdowni | 31.69% | 55.04% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.36% | 12.30% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.81% | 18.55% | |
| Max daily dropi | 23.16% | 13.79% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.63% | 22.10% |
| Category | SAP | ORCL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | SAP SE | Oracle Corporation |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Software - Application | Software - Infrastructure |
| Core business | SAP is the world's largest ERP software company with S/4HANA as its cloud ERP platform replacing legacy SAP ECC on-premises systems. SAP's ERP manages financials, supply chain, procurement, manufacturing, and HR for 400,000+ customers in 180 countries. SAP's Business AI embeds AI into ERP workflows. SAP's cloud revenue is growing as customers migrate from ECC on-premises to S/4HANA cloud subscriptions — a multi-decade migration tailwind. | Oracle provides the world's most widely used enterprise database (Oracle Database), cloud ERP applications (Fusion Cloud ERP, HCM, SCM), and OCI (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure). Oracle's cloud transformation is driven by Fusion Cloud application adoption and OCI AI infrastructure wins. OCI has won significant GPU cluster contracts from AI companies on price-performance grounds vs AWS and Azure. Oracle's database installed base across financial services, enterprise, and government is decades deep. |
| Investor focus | Investors track S/4HANA cloud customer count and cloud revenue growth, total cloud backlog, Business AI adoption, and the migration rate from 400,000 on-premises ECC customers to cloud subscriptions. | Investors track cloud revenue growth (Fusion Cloud ERP and OCI separately), remaining performance obligations (cloud backlog), OCI GPU infrastructure customer announcements, and Cerner healthcare ERP integration. |
- The world's most deeply embedded enterprise software — SAP ERP manages core financials and supply chains that global enterprises cannot turn off, creating irreplaceable incumbency
- S/4HANA cloud migration from 400,000 ECC on-premises customers creates a decade-long revenue tailwind — each migration converts one-time license to multi-year subscription
- Business AI embedded in ERP workflows (AP automation, demand forecasting, supply chain optimization) creates AI monetization within processes enterprises must run
- Oracle Database's irreplaceable position in enterprise computing — decades of mission-critical financial, healthcare, and enterprise data stored in Oracle databases with near-zero migration willingness
- OCI GPU cluster wins for AI training workloads demonstrate pricing competitiveness — Oracle is winning AI infrastructure contracts from Microsoft and others on OCI vs Azure price-performance
- Fusion Cloud ERP growing 20%+ with direct Oracle Database integration — enterprises choosing Oracle cloud get seamless database + applications integration
- S/4HANA migration is complex and expensive — large enterprises spend hundreds of millions in implementation costs, creating customer hesitation and extended migration timelines
- Oracle Fusion Cloud ERP competes directly with SAP S/4HANA — Oracle is growing cloud ERP faster on a net-new basis
- SAP's legacy ECC maintenance revenue will gradually decline as cloud migrations accelerate — transitioning the revenue mix creates near-term headwinds
- OCI is the 4th-place cloud platform — limited ecosystem breadth and developer tooling vs AWS, Azure, and GCP despite AI pricing wins
- Oracle Database on-premises revenue is gradually declining — the database incumbency is valuable but slowly eroding as cloud alternatives improve
- Cerner healthcare ERP integration has been more complex than expected — healthcare IT has specialized dynamics Oracle's traditional enterprise experience didn't fully anticipate
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