DOCN vs FSLY Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
DigitalOcean and Fastly are both mid-size cloud infrastructure companies facing competitive pressure from larger platforms, but in different market segments. DigitalOcean serves SMB compute; Fastly serves enterprise CDN/edge. Both face headwinds — DigitalOcean from declining NRR and Fastly from CDN commoditization. Neither is executing at the level that justifies a strong conviction investment over their larger rivals.
DOCN and FSLY are both challenged cloud infrastructure companies competing in markets being pressured by large cloud incumbents — investors must identify specific catalysts (GPU cloud for DOCN, security/edge computing for FSLY) that can differentiate them.
DOCN holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. DOCN has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+266.84% vs +184.70%), though FSLY has the better forward P/E setup (34.87x vs 56.20x for DOCN). DOCN leads on both revenue growth (28.60%) and operating margin (10.44%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for DOCN (+69.28%) than for FSLY (+32.61%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- believe GPU cloud via Paperspace will be a meaningful growth driver for SMB AI workloads
- value DigitalOcean's improving profitability profile as a path to sustained free cash flow
- want cloud infrastructure at a more modest valuation versus larger cloud players
- are comfortable with modest single-digit growth expectations in the near term
- believe Fastly's real-time edge architecture is a durable differentiator versus caching CDNs
- see Compute@Edge as a platform for growing beyond commodity CDN revenue
- want enterprise CDN exposure with media, streaming, and e-commerce customer relationships
- are comfortable with ongoing losses while waiting for scale to drive profitability
| Metric | DOCN | FSLY |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 55.0 | 25.8 |
| AI ranki | #277 | #2693 |
| Latest closei | $132.98 | $24.57 |
| 1M returni | +6.17% | -7.60% |
| 6M returni | +55.81% | -7.11% |
| 1Y returni | +266.84% | +184.70% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | DOCN | FSLY |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $36.68K (+266.8%) started 2025-09-17 | $28.47K (+184.7%) started 2025-09-17 |
| 5Y ago | $16.18K (+61.8%) started 2021-09-17 | $5.48K (-45.2%) started 2021-09-17 |
| 10Y ago | $31.29K (+212.9%) started 2021-03-24 | $10.24K (+2.4%) started 2019-05-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | DOCN | FSLY |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $12.17B | $3.24B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 47.05 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 56.20 | 34.87 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 13.86 | 4.90 |
| Analyst targeti | $175.20 | $27.00 |
| Target upsidei | +69.28% | +32.61% |
| Metric | DOCN | FSLY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 28.60% | 23.30% |
| Earnings growthi | -24.50% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | -24.50% | N/A |
| FCF margini | -2.36% | +12.66% |
| Operating margini | 10.44% | -7.87% |
| Profit margini | 23.27% | -11.80% |
| ROIC proxyi | 62.27% | -8.39% |
| Return on equityi | 62.27% | -8.39% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.59 | 0.36 |
| Debt/equityi | 212.51 | 40.20 |
| Current ratioi | 1.31 | 3.36 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.14 | 3.17 |
Over the past year, DOCN and FSLY have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.41), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | DOCN | FSLY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +266.84% | +184.70% |
| CAGRi | +267.17% | +184.91% | |
| Volatilityi | 85.20% | 120.92% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.88 | 1.38 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 3.49 | 2.58 | |
| Max drawdowni | 42.15% | 51.60% | |
| Current drawdowni | 26.65% | 26.66% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.48% | 21.34% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 16.72% | 26.65% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.28% | 38.23% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.18% | 42.00% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +61.76% | -45.24% |
| CAGRi | +10.10% | -11.35% | |
| Volatilityi | 72.27% | 88.62% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.43 | 0.25 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.65 | 0.38 | |
| Max drawdowni | 84.78% | 90.81% | |
| Current drawdowni | 26.65% | 54.83% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 62.45% | 71.77% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 65.71% | 74.09% | |
| Max daily dropi | 24.79% | 38.23% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 29.16% | 42.00% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +212.89% | +2.42% |
| CAGRi | +23.12% | +0.33% | |
| Volatilityi | 71.48% | 89.03% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.58 | 0.39 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.89 | 0.60 | |
| Max drawdowni | 84.78% | 96.12% | |
| Current drawdowni | 26.65% | 80.93% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 57.43% | 70.63% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 62.76% | 76.15% | |
| Max daily dropi | 24.79% | 38.23% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 29.16% | 42.00% |
| Category | DOCN | FSLY |
|---|---|---|
| Company | DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. | Fastly, Inc. |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Software - Infrastructure | Software - Application |
| Core business | DigitalOcean provides simplified cloud infrastructure to developers, startups, and SMBs, competing with AWS and Azure on simplicity and price transparency. Its platform spans Droplets (VMs), Spaces (object storage), Kubernetes, managed databases, and GPU cloud via Paperspace. | Fastly is an edge cloud platform providing CDN, real-time streaming, image optimization, and security services to enterprise customers. Unlike traditional CDNs that rely on caching, Fastly's real-time streaming architecture purges and refreshes content instantly — a key differentiator for media, e-commerce, and news sites with frequently changing content. Its Compute@Edge platform provides serverless execution at the CDN edge. |
| Investor focus | Investors track ARPU growth, net revenue retention, customer count, and operating margin as DigitalOcean works to sustain growth against SMB cloud market headwinds. | Investors track net revenue retention (dependent on customer traffic volumes), large enterprise customer spending, security product adoption, and gross margin as the company transitions toward more software-like revenue. |
- Simplest cloud experience in the market targeted at time-constrained developers and SMBs
- GPU cloud via Paperspace acquisition serves the growing SMB AI workload demand
- Improving free cash flow generation as the business matures toward profitability
- Real-time edge architecture differentiates Fastly from traditional caching CDNs
- Enterprise customer base including major media companies provides sticky high-value relationships
- Compute@Edge serverless platform provides a higher-value-added layer above pure CDN
- Net revenue retention declining — existing customers not expanding spend at historical rates
- Limited enterprise exposure makes DOCN sensitive to startup/SMB sector funding cycles
- Competition from large clouds making developer experience a priority
- CDN market is highly commoditized — Cloudflare, AWS CloudFront, and Akamai compete aggressively on price
- Revenue is volume-based (customer traffic) making it volatile quarter to quarter
- Persistent net losses and cash burn without a clear path to sustained profitability
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