Data as of:
LIVE
LUMN
Lumen Technologies, Inc. · Telecommunications
$6.48
+5.71% this month
VERSUS
COMPARE
T
AT&T Inc. · Telecommunications
$25.39
+1.97% this month
Comparison scoreboard
T LEADS 3/5AI Scorei
LUMN 26.6
T ✓40.9
1Y Returni
LUMN ✓+15.92%
T -14.05%
Fwd P/Ei
LUMN -20.38
T ✓10.15
Target Up.i
LUMN ✓+26.49%
T +10.37%
Op. Margini
LUMN -2.89%
T ✓24.79%
Metrics last refreshed: 9/18/2026
Quick take
LUMN vs T Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
LUMN and T are both legacy telecom companies in different stages of distress and transformation. Lumen is in severe financial distress — debt restructuring, no dividend, and existential business model challenges. AT&T is a more stable (if still challenged) turnaround — the WarnerMedia exit simplified the business, AT&T Fiber is growing, and the dividend is maintained. For investors willing to consider telecom, AT&T is the higher-quality turnaround; Lumen is a deeply distressed high-risk speculation.
LUMN vs T — Lumen Technologies (the legacy enterprise telecom under severe financial stress with fiber network assets and AI connectivity tailwind but business model and balance sheet challenges threatening equity value) versus AT&T (the post-WarnerMedia simplified wireless and AT&T Fiber company paying 6-7% dividend while managing significant debt and competing with T-Mobile's network momentum).
Live analysis · updated 9/18/2026
T holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LUMN has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+15.92% vs -14.05%), though T has the better forward P/E setup (10.15x vs -20.38x for LUMN). T leads on both revenue growth (2.30%) and operating margin (24.79%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for LUMN (+26.49%) than for T (+10.37%).
Normalized 1Y performance
LUMN
T
Recent returns
LUMN
T
Analyst price targets & sentiment
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
LUMN
Price target range
analyst mean$7.64
current price$6.48
+26.5% upside to analyst mean
T · 26 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.9/5.0)
14 Buy / 10 Hold / 1 Sell
Price target range
analyst low$17.80
analyst high$34.00
analyst mean$28.71
current price$25.39
+10.4% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
LUMN is suitable only for:
- highly speculative distressed investors with deep telecom expertise who understand Lumen's debt restructuring implications for equity holders and can analyze whether equity has recovery value
- traders speculating on Lumen's AI network infrastructure assets attracting strategic buyer interest or partnership that re-rates the equity
- investors with very small speculative allocation who understand the binary nature of distressed equity — Lumen either restructures successfully and equity has significant upside or equity is impaired in restructuring
- anyone who has thoroughly reviewed Lumen's debt maturity schedule, free cash flow, and debt-to-equity restructuring scenarios — this requires specialized distressed analysis beyond typical equity investing
T may suit investors who:
- want high telecom dividend yield (6-7%) from a simplified wireless and fiber company that has divested WarnerMedia's content complexity
- see AT&T Fiber's rapid expansion (25M+ passings) as a genuine growth engine offsetting wireless subscriber pressure from T-Mobile
- prefer AT&T's more manageable financial situation vs Lumen's existential distress — AT&T's debt is manageable given its cash flow scale even if burdensome
- are comfortable with continued T-Mobile subscriber momentum pressure, heavy debt load reducing financial flexibility, and modest dividend growth prospects for the foreseeable future
Performance & AI score
| Metric | LUMN | T |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 26.6 | 40.9 |
| AI ranki | #2571 | #1098 |
| Latest closei | $6.48 | $25.39 |
| 1M returni | +5.71% | +1.97% |
| 6M returni | -4.14% | -8.47% |
| 1Y returni | +15.92% | -14.05% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | LUMN | T |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.27K (+12.7%) started 2025-09-18 | $8.7K (-13.0%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $5.09K (-49.1%) started 2021-09-20 | $20.79K (+107.9%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $2.4K (-76.0%) started 2016-09-19 | $38.71K (+287.1%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | LUMN | T |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $6.23B | $178.23B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 8.58 |
| Forward P/Ei | -20.38 | 10.15 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 1.64 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.51 | 2.71 |
| Analyst targeti | $7.64 | $28.71 |
| Target upsidei | +26.49% | +10.37% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | LUMN | T |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -9.30% | 2.30% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 6.20% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +6.20% |
| FCF margini | +17.89% | +7.97% |
| Operating margini | -2.89% | 24.79% |
| Profit margini | -8.65% | 16.94% |
| ROIC proxyi | -78.94% | 18.34% |
| Return on equityi | -78.94% | 18.34% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 4.27% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 36.63% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.81 | 0.42 |
| Debt/equityi | 6203.11 | 129.05 |
| Current ratioi | 0.96 | 0.97 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.77 | 0.60 |
Correlation
Over the past year, LUMN and T have moved barely in opposite directions (correlation of -0.13), based on daily returns.
1Y
-0.13
-1.0+1.0
5Y
0.12
-1.0+1.0
10Y
0.23
-1.0+1.0
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
LUMN max drawdowni52.07%
T max drawdowni29.86%
LUMN max wkly dropi30.24%
T max wkly dropi9.57%
5Y risk snapshot
LUMN max drawdowni93.13%
T max drawdowni32.01%
LUMN max wkly dropi30.24%
T max wkly dropi12.69%
10Y risk snapshot
LUMN max drawdowni96.84%
T max drawdowni39.43%
LUMN max wkly dropi30.24%
T max wkly dropi17.46%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | LUMN | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +12.70% | -13.05% |
| CAGRi | +12.71% | -13.06% | |
| Volatilityi | 77.36% | 25.36% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.48 | -0.60 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.74 | -0.83 | |
| Max drawdowni | 52.07% | 29.86% | |
| Current drawdowni | 45.22% | 13.05% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.08% | 13.17% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 33.34% | 14.82% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.63% | 5.13% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.24% | 9.57% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -49.10% | +57.95% |
| CAGRi | -12.65% | +9.58% | |
| Volatilityi | 85.95% | 24.84% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.18 | 0.31 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.31 | 0.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 93.13% | 32.01% | |
| Current drawdowni | 54.59% | 14.28% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 57.44% | 10.18% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 63.07% | 12.97% | |
| Max daily dropi | 32.88% | 10.41% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.24% | 12.69% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -76.04% | +59.39% |
| CAGRi | -13.32% | +4.77% | |
| Volatilityi | 68.17% | 24.08% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.04 | 0.13 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.06 | 0.18 | |
| Max drawdowni | 96.84% | 39.43% | |
| Current drawdowni | 79.10% | 14.28% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 64.11% | 14.31% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 67.84% | 16.93% | |
| Max daily dropi | 32.88% | 10.41% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.24% | 17.46% |
Business comparison
| Category | LUMN | T |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Lumen Technologies, Inc. | AT&T Inc. |
| Sector | Communication Services | Communication Services |
| Industry | Telecom Services | Telecom Services |
| Core business | Lumen Technologies is a legacy enterprise telecommunications company providing fiber network, cloud connectivity, and enterprise communications services to US businesses and governments. Lumen emerged from the CenturyLink/Level 3 acquisitions and faces severe secular headwinds from enterprise customers migrating away from legacy MPLS and copper services toward cloud networking. Lumen has significant fiber network infrastructure but has struggled to monetize it effectively. The company has a massive debt load ($19B+) and eliminated its dividend entirely in 2022. Lumen is in financial distress with an extremely challenging business model. | AT&T is a major US telecommunications company operating wireless services (130M+ customers) and AT&T Fiber (fixed broadband). After divesting WarnerMedia (now Warner Bros. Discovery) in 2022, AT&T refocused on its core telecom business. AT&T's wireless business is the second-largest in the US (after T-Mobile's subscriber base passed AT&T). AT&T Fiber has been rapidly expanding to 25M+ passings and growing broadband subscribers. AT&T pays a dividend yielding ~6-7% and has been reducing debt from the WarnerMedia divestiture. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on Lumen's revenue stabilization from secular fiber revenue offsetting legacy service declines, debt refinancing timeline, and whether the company can reach positive free cash flow. | Investors focus on AT&T's wireless subscriber trends, AT&T Fiber subscriber growth and ARPU, debt reduction from WarnerMedia proceeds, and dividend sustainability given the debt load. |
LUMN strengths
- Fiber network infrastructure asset: Lumen owns extensive fiber network infrastructure connecting enterprises, data centers, and government customers — a physical asset with underlying value
- Quantum Fiber consumer broadband expansion: Lumen's Quantum Fiber is expanding residential fiber broadband in its operating markets — a growth segment within an otherwise declining business
- AI and cloud networking demand tailwind: high-bandwidth enterprise fiber connectivity demand is growing with AI infrastructure buildouts — Lumen's network could benefit from AI data center interconnection needs
T strengths
- AT&T Fiber growth: AT&T is rapidly expanding fiber broadband with 25M+ passings — fiber subscribers are growing as customers upgrade from DSL or cable to AT&T Fiber
- Post-WarnerMedia focus: divesting WarnerMedia simplified AT&T significantly — the company is now purely a connectivity business without content complexity
- Wireless network quality improvement: AT&T has invested heavily in 5G mid-band (C-band) spectrum to close the gap with T-Mobile's network advantage — improving network quality drives subscriber retention
Risks to watch — LUMN
- Severe financial distress with Chapter 11 risk: Lumen has been negotiating debt restructuring with creditors — equity holders face meaningful risk of restructuring that significantly dilutes or eliminates equity value
- Legacy revenue declining faster than fiber growth: Lumen's legacy MPLS, copper, and voice services are declining rapidly — Quantum Fiber and enterprise fiber are not growing fast enough to offset
- No dividend: Lumen eliminated its dividend in 2022 — income investors have no income component while waiting for a highly uncertain business turnaround
Risks to watch — T
- Massive debt load from DirecTV and WarnerMedia era: AT&T carries $130B+ in debt — debt service consumes significant free cash flow and limits investment flexibility
- T-Mobile subscriber momentum continuing to pressure AT&T: like Verizon, AT&T faces ongoing subscriber pressure from T-Mobile's Un-carrier momentum and network quality advantage
- WarnerMedia divestitures' legacy complications: AT&T received Warner Bros. Discovery shares as part of the WarnerMedia deal — WBD's weakness creates legacy complexity despite the formal separation
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