MTCH vs BMBL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Match Group and Bumble are both online-dating pure plays navigating slowing user growth and app fatigue, but they are at very different points in their turnaround stories. Match Group is the larger, more diversified, cash-generative operator leaning on Hinge to offset a maturing Tinder, while Bumble is a smaller, deeply discounted name searching for a catalyst to reverse persistent revenue declines. The choice largely comes down to preferring diversified stability versus a higher-risk, higher-potential-reward recovery bet.
Use this MTCH vs BMBL comparison to weigh Match Group's scale and diversification against Bumble's deeper discount and higher-variance turnaround potential.
MTCH holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MTCH has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+34.16% vs +7.82%), though BMBL has the better forward P/E setup (2.88x vs 9.08x for MTCH). MTCH leads on both revenue growth (-1.20%) and operating margin (28.77%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BMBL (+38.07%) than for MTCH (+0.73%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to online dating without betting on a single app
- Value free cash flow and capital returns over rapid growth
- Believe Hinge can keep offsetting Tinder's maturity
- Prefer the more established, lower-volatility name in the sector
- Are comfortable with high volatility in exchange for turnaround upside
- Believe new leadership can stabilize user and revenue trends
- Want a smaller-cap, higher-beta way to play a dating-app recovery
- Can tolerate continued near-term revenue declines while waiting for a catalyst
| Metric | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 44.6 | 23.4 |
| AI ranki | #1400 | #3924 |
| Latest closei | $44.10 | $5.93 |
| 1M returni | -0.68% | +96.36% |
| 3M returni | +9.46% | +95.71% |
| 6M returni | +26.91% | +37.59% |
| 1Y returni | +34.16% | +7.82% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.63K (+36.3%) started 2025-10-16 | $10.78K (+7.8%) started 2025-10-15 |
| 5Y ago | $2.85K (-71.5%) started 2021-10-18 | $1.14K (-88.6%) started 2021-10-15 |
| 10Y ago | $27.83K (+178.3%) started 2016-10-17 | $843.41 (-91.6%) started 2021-02-11 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $9.7B | $415.22M |
| Trailing P/Ei | 14.64 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 9.08 | 2.88 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.60 | 0.85 |
| Analyst targeti | $41.88 | $3.74 |
| Target upsidei | +0.73% | +38.07% |
| Metric | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -1.20% | -15.20% |
| Earnings growthi | 50.40% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | +50.40% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +26.52% | +21.67% |
| Operating margini | 28.77% | 28.14% |
| Profit margini | 20.17% | -57.96% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | -76.92% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | -76.92% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.92% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 27.66% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.32 | 1.87 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | 74.57 |
| Current ratioi | 1.72 | 1.63 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.56 | 1.39 |
Over the past year, MTCH and BMBL have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.31), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +36.32% | +7.82% |
| CAGRi | +36.39% | +7.82% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.62% | 102.23% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.00 | 0.47 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.45 | 0.99 | |
| Max drawdowni | 16.28% | 57.48% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.68% | 0.67% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.57% | 41.50% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.88% | 43.59% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.37% | 21.77% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.77% | 27.95% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -71.80% | -88.64% |
| CAGRi | -22.38% | -35.27% | |
| Volatilityi | 43.93% | 76.96% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.46 | -0.26 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.64 | -0.43 | |
| Max drawdowni | 84.42% | 95.58% | |
| Current drawdowni | 74.58% | 89.52% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 72.59% | 74.78% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 74.35% | 77.16% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.87% | 30.31% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.58% | 37.98% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +161.22% | -91.57% |
| CAGRi | +10.08% | -35.33% | |
| Volatilityi | 45.65% | 75.53% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.34 | -0.28 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.50 | -0.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 84.42% | 96.83% | |
| Current drawdowni | 74.58% | 92.48% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 41.28% | 75.69% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 53.36% | 78.67% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.09% | 30.31% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.87% | 37.98% |
| Category | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Match Group, Inc. | Bumble Inc. |
| Sector | Communication Services | Communication Services |
| Industry | Internet Content & Information | Internet Content & Information |
| Core business | Match Group owns and operates a portfolio of online dating platforms, including Tinder, Hinge, Match.com, and OkCupid. | Bumble operates the Bumble app, where women make the first move, along with Badoo and other dating and social-networking products. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch Tinder's user and payer trends against Hinge's continued growth, along with margin discipline as the overall portfolio matures. | Investors are focused on whether new leadership can stabilize user declines and reignite revenue growth after a steep, prolonged post-IPO drawdown. |
- Hinge remains a reliable growth driver even as Tinder plateaus
- Diversified portfolio spreads risk across multiple dating apps and demographics
- High free-cash-flow generation supports buybacks and debt paydown
- Differentiated women-first product positioning built real brand loyalty
- Ongoing cost-cutting has narrowed losses and preserved cash
- Smaller base leaves more room for a growth surprise if a turnaround takes hold
- Tinder revenue has been flat to declining for multiple quarters
- Weak forward guidance has repeatedly pressured the stock
- Intensifying competition from free and AI-driven dating apps
- Revenue has declined year-over-year for many consecutive quarters
- Stock trades far below its IPO and prior 52-week highs, reflecting eroded investor confidence
- Smaller scale and marketing budget versus Match Group's multi-app portfolio
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