MTCH vs BMBL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Match Group and Bumble are both online-dating pure plays navigating slowing user growth and app fatigue, but they are at very different points in their turnaround stories. Match Group is the larger, more diversified, cash-generative operator leaning on Hinge to offset a maturing Tinder, while Bumble is a smaller, deeply discounted name searching for a catalyst to reverse persistent revenue declines. The choice largely comes down to preferring diversified stability versus a higher-risk, higher-potential-reward recovery bet.
Use this MTCH vs BMBL comparison to weigh Match Group's scale and diversification against Bumble's deeper discount and higher-variance turnaround potential.
MTCH holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MTCH has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+8.86% vs -55.59%), though BMBL has the better forward P/E setup (2.91x vs 9.08x for MTCH). MTCH leads on both revenue growth (-1.20%) and operating margin (28.77%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BMBL (+36.56%) than for MTCH (+0.73%).
- Want exposure to online dating without betting on a single app
- Value free cash flow and capital returns over rapid growth
- Believe Hinge can keep offsetting Tinder's maturity
- Prefer the more established, lower-volatility name in the sector
- Are comfortable with high volatility in exchange for turnaround upside
- Believe new leadership can stabilize user and revenue trends
- Want a smaller-cap, higher-beta way to play a dating-app recovery
- Can tolerate continued near-term revenue declines while waiting for a catalyst
| Metric | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 42.8 | 22.4 |
| AI rank | #827 | #4045 |
| Latest close | $40.65 | $2.74 |
| 1M return | +3.15% | -3.86% |
| 6M return | +29.91% | -9.87% |
| 1Y return | +8.86% | -55.59% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.99K (+9.9%) started 2025-09-02 | $4.49K (-55.1%) started 2025-09-02 |
| 5Y ago | $3K (-70.0%) started 2021-09-01 | $502.75 (-95.0%) started 2021-08-31 |
| 10Y ago | $29K (+190.0%) started 2016-09-01 | $389.7 (-96.1%) started 2021-02-11 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $9.7B | $419.81M |
| Trailing P/E | 14.64 | N/A |
| Forward P/E | 9.08 | 2.91 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | 0.47 |
| EV/Revenue | 3.60 | 0.86 |
| Analyst target | $41.88 | $3.74 |
| Target upside | +0.73% | +36.56% |
| Metric | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | -1.20% | -15.20% |
| Earnings growth | 50.40% | N/A |
| EPS growth | +50.40% | N/A |
| FCF margin | +26.52% | +21.67% |
| Operating margin | 28.77% | 28.14% |
| Profit margin | 20.17% | -57.96% |
| ROIC proxy | N/A | -76.92% |
| Return on equity | N/A | -76.92% |
| Dividend yield | 1.92% | 0.00% |
| Beta | 1.32 | 1.87 |
| Debt/equity | N/A | 74.57 |
| Current ratio | 1.72 | 1.63 |
| Quick ratio | 1.56 | 1.39 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +9.92% | -55.08% |
| CAGR | +9.99% | -55.30% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.32 | -0.88 | |
| Max drawdown | 25.46% | 63.74% | |
| Max daily drop | 8.37% | 21.77% | |
| Max wkly drop | 10.77% | 27.95% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -70.32% | -94.97% |
| CAGR | -21.58% | -45.02% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.43 | -0.59 | |
| Max drawdown | 84.42% | 95.66% | |
| Max daily drop | 17.87% | 30.31% | |
| Max wkly drop | 20.58% | 37.98% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +172.17% | -96.10% |
| CAGR | +10.53% | -44.27% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.35 | -0.57 | |
| Max drawdown | 84.42% | 96.70% | |
| Max daily drop | 22.09% | 30.31% | |
| Max wkly drop | 24.87% | 37.98% |
| Category | MTCH | BMBL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Match Group, Inc. | Bumble Inc. |
| Sector | Communication Services | Communication Services |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Match Group owns and operates a portfolio of online dating platforms, including Tinder, Hinge, Match.com, and OkCupid. | Bumble operates the Bumble app, where women make the first move, along with Badoo and other dating and social-networking products. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch Tinder's user and payer trends against Hinge's continued growth, along with margin discipline as the overall portfolio matures. | Investors are focused on whether new leadership can stabilize user declines and reignite revenue growth after a steep, prolonged post-IPO drawdown. |
- Hinge remains a reliable growth driver even as Tinder plateaus
- Diversified portfolio spreads risk across multiple dating apps and demographics
- High free-cash-flow generation supports buybacks and debt paydown
- Differentiated women-first product positioning built real brand loyalty
- Ongoing cost-cutting has narrowed losses and preserved cash
- Smaller base leaves more room for a growth surprise if a turnaround takes hold
- Tinder revenue has been flat to declining for multiple quarters
- Weak forward guidance has repeatedly pressured the stock
- Intensifying competition from free and AI-driven dating apps
- Revenue has declined year-over-year for many consecutive quarters
- Stock trades far below its IPO and prior 52-week highs, reflecting eroded investor confidence
- Smaller scale and marketing budget versus Match Group's multi-app portfolio
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