JBLU vs AAL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
JBLU vs AAL contrasts a smaller carrier executing a standalone turnaround plan against a much larger legacy network airline working through a heavier debt load. JetBlue offers turnaround upside tied to JetForward's progress and reduced competition after Spirit's 2026 exit, while American offers scale and a valuable loyalty program but carries more balance sheet risk.
JetBlue suits investors betting on continued improvement from the JetForward plan and benefiting from a less crowded low-cost competitive landscape following Spirit's collapse. American Airlines suits investors who prefer exposure to a larger, more diversified global network carrier and are comfortable with a heavier debt load in exchange for greater scale and loyalty program cash flow.
AAL holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. AAL leads on both 1-year return (+9.00%) and forward P/E quality (5.79x vs -6.24x for JBLU), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. AAL leads on both revenue growth (16.30%) and operating margin (2.81%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for AAL (+37.19%) than for JBLU (+18.31%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Believe the JetForward turnaround plan will continue narrowing losses toward profitability
- See reduced competitive pressure following Spirit Airlines' 2026 market exit as a tailwind
- Want exposure to a smaller, potential recovery story rather than an established leader
- Can tolerate ongoing net losses during the turnaround period
- Want exposure to a large-scale global network carrier with extensive route coverage
- Value American's loyalty and co-branded card program as a stable cash flow source
- Believe continued debt paydown will keep improving the balance sheet over time
- Prefer scale and diversification over a smaller carrier's turnaround bet
| Metric | JBLU | AAL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 24.8 | 26.9 |
| AI ranki | #2923 | #2414 |
| Latest closei | $4.57 | $13.57 |
| 1M returni | -6.54% | -1.81% |
| 6M returni | +8.81% | +25.53% |
| 1Y returni | -9.15% | +9.00% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | JBLU | AAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.05K (-9.5%) started 2025-09-22 | $11.01K (+10.1%) started 2025-09-22 |
| 5Y ago | $3.1K (-69.0%) started 2021-09-21 | $6.61K (-33.9%) started 2021-09-22 |
| 10Y ago | $2.66K (-73.4%) started 2016-09-21 | $3.85K (-61.5%) started 2016-09-22 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | JBLU | AAL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $1.65B | $8.61B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 48.32 |
| Forward P/Ei | -6.24 | 5.79 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.95 | 0.62 |
| Analyst targeti | $5.17 | $17.85 |
| Target upsidei | +18.31% | +37.19% |
| Metric | JBLU | AAL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 14.50% | 16.30% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | -88.20% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | -88.20% |
| FCF margini | -9.69% | +0.89% |
| Operating margini | -5.23% | 2.81% |
| Profit margini | -9.32% | -0.56% |
| ROIC proxyi | -44.35% | N/A |
| Return on equityi | -44.35% | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.70 | 1.33 |
| Debt/equityi | 591.43 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 0.70 | 0.53 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.54 | 0.38 |
Over the past year, JBLU and AAL have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.70), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | JBLU | AAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -9.50% | +10.06% |
| CAGRi | -9.54% | +10.07% | |
| Volatilityi | 63.04% | 47.69% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.08 | 0.35 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.12 | 0.52 | |
| Max drawdowni | 37.62% | 37.39% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.26% | 25.23% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.71% | 14.45% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.74% | 18.14% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.86% | 8.32% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.38% | 15.42% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -69.04% | -33.87% |
| CAGRi | -20.90% | -7.94% | |
| Volatilityi | 61.09% | 48.35% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.15 | -0.02 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.22 | -0.04 | |
| Max drawdowni | 78.97% | 59.25% | |
| Current drawdowni | 71.98% | 39.04% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 55.98% | 35.95% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 59.08% | 37.77% | |
| Max daily dropi | 25.71% | 14.48% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.34% | 25.57% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -73.41% | -61.50% |
| CAGRi | -12.41% | -9.11% | |
| Volatilityi | 55.03% | 53.01% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.05 | -0.01 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.07 | -0.01 | |
| Max drawdowni | 85.56% | 84.54% | |
| Current drawdowni | 80.76% | 76.79% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 46.81% | 58.15% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 54.09% | 63.64% | |
| Max daily dropi | 25.71% | 25.22% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 43.55% | 35.76% |
| Category | JBLU | AAL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | JetBlue | American Airlines |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Airlines | Airlines |
| Core business | JetBlue is a low-cost carrier focused on leisure and business travel primarily along the US East Coast, Caribbean, and Latin America routes. After its proposed merger with Spirit Airlines was blocked by a federal judge and formally terminated in 2024, JetBlue pivoted to a standalone turnaround plan called JetForward, focused on network optimization, cost discipline, and premium product upgrades. Spirit Airlines itself filed for bankruptcy and ceased all operations in 2026, removing a major ultra-low-cost competitor from JetBlue's core markets. | American Airlines is one of the largest legacy network carriers in the world, operating a global hub-and-spoke network alongside a large regional and international route system. The airline holds a substantial debt load taken on partly during the pandemic, and its strategy centers on maximizing revenue from its loyalty program, premium cabin offerings, and global alliance partnerships. |
| Investor focus | Standalone Turnaround Execution | Scale + Deleveraging |
- JetForward plan has been steadily narrowing net losses and improving adjusted operating margin year over year
- Spirit Airlines' full exit from the market in 2026 reduces ultra-low-cost fare competition on overlapping routes
- Strong brand loyalty and a differentiated premium-leisure product versus other low-cost carriers
- Extensive global route network and hub system provide scale advantages competitors can't easily replicate
- High-margin loyalty and co-branded credit card program provides a steady, less cyclical revenue stream
- Ongoing debt paydown has been gradually improving the balance sheet since pandemic-era borrowing peaked
- Still operating at a net loss, with the JetForward turnaround requiring continued execution to reach sustainable profitability
- Smaller scale than legacy network carriers limits negotiating leverage with airports and suppliers
- Airline industry remains highly sensitive to fuel prices and broader economic cycles
- Carries a significantly higher debt load than most peers, limiting financial flexibility
- Highly exposed to fuel price volatility and broader macroeconomic and travel demand cycles
- Intense competition from both legacy peers and resurgent low-cost carriers on domestic routes
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.