UAL vs LUV Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
United Airlines and Southwest Airlines both operate major United States airlines, but United runs a global hub-and-spoke network with substantial international and premium cabin exposure, while Southwest has historically focused on domestic, point-to-point, low-cost travel with a simplified fleet strategy.
United offers exposure to international and premium cabin revenue growth with a global network structure, while Southwest offers exposure to a historically lower-cost, domestically focused business model now navigating strategic changes. Consider whether you prefer United's international and premium growth story or Southwest's domestic low-cost positioning amid ongoing adjustments.
UAL holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LUV has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+24.98% vs +2.27%), though UAL has the better forward P/E setup (7.26x vs 8.15x for LUV). On fundamentals, LUV is growing revenue faster (16.40%), while UAL maintains the higher operating margin (5.53%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for UAL (+45.94%) than for LUV (+29.44%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to international and premium cabin revenue growth through a global hub-and-spoke network
- Believe the co-branded loyalty and credit card program provides valuable revenue stability
- Are comfortable with sensitivity to global economic and geopolitical conditions
- Value a diversified network spanning both domestic and long-haul international routes
- Want exposure to a historically lower-cost, domestically focused airline business model
- Value the operational simplicity of a single aircraft type fleet strategy
- Believe the airline's strong brand loyalty supports a differentiated competitive position
- Are comfortable with execution risk as Southwest adapts some of its traditional policies
| Metric | UAL | LUV |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 43.3 | 39.7 |
| AI ranki | #880 | #1212 |
| Latest closei | $106.92 | $39.28 |
| 1M returni | -14.70% | -11.25% |
| 6M returni | +14.73% | -4.47% |
| 1Y returni | +2.27% | +24.98% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | UAL | LUV |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.26K (+2.6%) started 2025-09-16 | $12.44K (+24.4%) started 2025-09-16 |
| 5Y ago | $24.01K (+140.1%) started 2021-09-17 | $8.97K (-10.3%) started 2021-09-17 |
| 10Y ago | $20.98K (+109.8%) started 2016-09-19 | $13K (+30.0%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | UAL | LUV |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $35.9B | $19.39B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 10.36 | 24.77 |
| Forward P/Ei | 7.26 | 8.15 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.48 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.84 | 0.75 |
| Analyst targeti | $161.41 | $51.31 |
| Target upsidei | +45.94% | +29.44% |
| Metric | UAL | LUV |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 16.00% | 16.40% |
| Earnings growthi | -17.20% | 20.50% |
| EPS growthi | -17.20% | +20.50% |
| FCF margini | +1.45% | -2.78% |
| Operating margini | 5.53% | 3.38% |
| Profit margini | 5.56% | 2.78% |
| ROIC proxyi | 23.25% | 11.10% |
| Return on equityi | 23.25% | 11.10% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 1.82% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 45.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| Debt/equityi | 201.64 | 97.28 |
| Current ratioi | 0.78 | 0.49 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.69 | 0.38 |
Over the past year, UAL and LUV have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.70), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | UAL | LUV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +2.61% | +24.42% |
| CAGRi | +2.62% | +24.48% | |
| Volatilityi | 47.97% | 44.08% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.20 | 0.61 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.30 | 0.99 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.50% | 33.78% | |
| Current drawdowni | 21.45% | 28.32% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.40% | 13.61% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.83% | 17.51% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.70% | 7.74% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.04% | 15.63% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +140.05% | -15.32% |
| CAGRi | +19.15% | -3.27% | |
| Volatilityi | 48.96% | 38.56% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.51 | -0.01 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.78 | -0.02 | |
| Max drawdowni | 49.19% | 58.75% | |
| Current drawdowni | 21.45% | 28.32% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.56% | 33.94% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.82% | 36.16% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.61% | 14.86% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 29.73% | 22.98% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +109.81% | +17.69% |
| CAGRi | +7.70% | +1.64% | |
| Volatilityi | 51.68% | 37.67% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.32 | 0.11 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.47 | 0.16 | |
| Max drawdowni | 79.40% | 64.76% | |
| Current drawdowni | 21.45% | 35.51% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 31.64% | 30.53% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 39.06% | 35.34% | |
| Max daily dropi | 30.29% | 15.11% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 56.67% | 23.60% |
| Category | UAL | LUV |
|---|---|---|
| Company | United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | Southwest Airlines Co. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Airlines | Airlines |
| Core business | A global network airline operating an extensive domestic and international route network through hub-and-spoke operations, offering premium and economy cabin service along with a co-branded loyalty and credit card program. | A domestic-focused low-cost airline operating a point-to-point route network primarily within the United States, historically known for a single aircraft type fleet strategy and no first-class cabin offering. |
| Investor focus | Premium cabin and international revenue growth, loyalty program economics, and margin trends as fleet modernization and capacity plans progress. | Domestic capacity and unit revenue trends, cost structure discipline, and progress on newer initiatives such as revised seating and boarding policies. |
- Extensive international route network and hub structure provide access to higher-yielding long-haul and premium cabin demand
- Growing premium cabin revenue mix has supported margin improvement relative to a pure economy-focused model
- Co-branded credit card and loyalty program provides a stable, less cyclical revenue stream complementing ticket sales
- Historically lower cost structure supported by a simplified, single aircraft type fleet strategy
- Point-to-point domestic network model has provided operational flexibility relative to hub-and-spoke competitors
- Strong brand loyalty built around customer-friendly policies has supported a differentiated market position
- International route exposure introduces sensitivity to global economic conditions, geopolitical events, and fuel price swings
- Large, complex hub-and-spoke network requires significant capital investment in fleet and airport infrastructure
- Labor costs and contract negotiations can meaningfully affect margins across the airline industry
- Primarily domestic route exposure limits access to higher-yielding international and long-haul premium revenue opportunities
- Recent shifts away from some traditional policies introduce execution risk as the company adapts its historical model
- Domestic capacity growth and unit revenue trends are sensitive to broader industry competitive capacity discipline
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