ALK vs LUV Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Alaska Air is typically evaluated on how well it integrates Hawaiian Airlines and defends its West Coast and Pacific network strength, while Southwest is judged on the success of its ongoing revenue-model overhaul under activist pressure. Both are mid-size U.S. carriers, so the comparison often centers on integration risk versus turnaround execution risk.
Use this ALK vs LUV comparison to weigh merger-integration risk against revenue-model turnaround risk: Alaska is digesting the Hawaiian Airlines acquisition while Southwest is reworking decades-old fare and seating policies, and each carries a distinct near-term execution challenge.
LUV holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LUV leads on both 1-year return (+22.17%) and forward P/E quality (8.15x vs 8.35x for ALK), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. LUV leads on both revenue growth (16.40%) and operating margin (3.38%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ALK (+42.20%) than for LUV (+29.44%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Believe Hawaiian Airlines integration will unlock cost and network synergies
- Want concentrated exposure to West Coast and Pacific/Hawaii travel demand
- Value a strong regional loyalty program and premium cabin mix
- Are comfortable with merger integration execution risk
- Believe Southwest's new bag-fee and assigned-seating initiatives will close its revenue gap versus peers
- Want broader national route coverage than a regionally concentrated carrier
- See value in activist-driven cost and capital-allocation discipline
- Are willing to underwrite execution risk during a multi-year strategy shift
| Metric | ALK | LUV |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 25.1 | 39.2 |
| AI ranki | #2754 | #1162 |
| Latest closei | $36.50 | $40.83 |
| 1M returni | -8.54% | +3.95% |
| 3M returni | -23.35% | -17.40% |
| 6M returni | -11.30% | +0.49% |
| 1Y returni | -26.14% | +22.17% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ALK | LUV |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.47K (-25.3%) started 2025-10-15 | $12.17K (+21.7%) started 2025-10-15 |
| 5Y ago | $6.32K (-36.8%) started 2021-10-15 | $9.2K (-8.0%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $5.07K (-49.3%) started 2016-10-17 | $12.03K (+20.3%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ALK | LUV |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $4.59B | $19.39B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 94.14 | 24.77 |
| Forward P/Ei | 8.35 | 8.15 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| Analyst targeti | $58.53 | $51.31 |
| Target upsidei | +42.20% | +29.44% |
| Metric | ALK | LUV |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 9.70% | 16.40% |
| Earnings growthi | -68.30% | 20.50% |
| EPS growthi | -68.30% | +20.50% |
| FCF margini | -0.16% | -2.78% |
| Operating margini | -2.93% | 3.38% |
| Profit margini | -1.18% | 2.78% |
| ROIC proxyi | -4.60% | 11.10% |
| Return on equityi | -4.60% | 11.10% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 1.82% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 45.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.28 | 1.14 |
| Debt/equityi | 207.52 | 97.28 |
| Current ratioi | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.47 | 0.38 |
Over the past year, ALK and LUV have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.73), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ALK | LUV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -25.27% | +21.66% |
| CAGRi | -25.30% | +21.70% | |
| Volatilityi | 51.81% | 44.08% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.39 | 0.56 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.57 | 0.90 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.22% | 33.78% | |
| Current drawdowni | 39.38% | 25.49% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.06% | 15.45% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.39% | 18.85% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.41% | 7.74% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.80% | 15.63% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -36.82% | -13.20% |
| CAGRi | -8.78% | -2.80% | |
| Volatilityi | 43.35% | 38.51% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.10 | 0.00 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.15 | 0.00 | |
| Max drawdowni | 55.37% | 56.51% | |
| Current drawdowni | 52.35% | 25.49% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 28.44% | 31.30% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 31.20% | 33.49% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.22% | 14.86% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.18% | 22.98% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -49.26% | +8.87% |
| CAGRi | -6.56% | +0.85% | |
| Volatilityi | 44.02% | 37.68% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.04 | 0.09 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.05 | 0.13 | |
| Max drawdowni | 76.50% | 64.76% | |
| Current drawdowni | 63.59% | 32.97% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 44.34% | 30.78% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 47.16% | 35.45% | |
| Max daily dropi | 23.24% | 15.11% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 45.01% | 23.60% |
| Category | ALK | LUV |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Alaska Air Group, Inc. | Southwest Airlines Co. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Airlines | Airlines |
| Core business | Alaska Air Group operates Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines, combining a strong West Coast domestic network with Hawaiian's Pacific and inter-island routes following their 2024 merger. | Southwest Airlines runs a point-to-point domestic network built on a single Boeing 737 fleet type, historically differentiated by no bag fees and open seating. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch integration progress and cost synergies from the Hawaiian Airlines acquisition, West Coast and transcontinental market share, and loyalty program strength. | Investors are focused on Southwest's transition away from its legacy open-seating model, new bag-fee and assigned-seating revenue initiatives, and cost discipline under activist investor pressure. |
- Strong West Coast hub position, particularly in Seattle and Portland
- Hawaiian Airlines acquisition adds Pacific and inter-island network diversification
- Well-regarded loyalty program and premium cabin offerings relative to size
- Simplified single-fleet-type operating model keeps maintenance and training costs lower
- National scale with dense route coverage across major domestic leisure markets
- New assigned-seating, extra-legroom, and bag-fee initiatives targeting a long-standing revenue gap versus peers
- Integration execution risk and cost synergy realization from the Hawaiian merger
- Regional and West Coast demand concentration versus more diversified national carriers
- Competitive pressure from Southwest, Delta, and United on overlapping West Coast routes
- Execution risk in overhauling decades-old customer policies and revenue systems
- Activist investor involvement (Elliott Management) driving board and strategy changes
- Domestic leisure concentration leaves it exposed to consumer spending pullbacks
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