ABNB vs MAR Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ABNB and MAR both earn fees rather than owning the underlying accommodation, but the similarity ends there. Airbnb runs a marketplace where supply is added by individuals at almost no cost to the company, giving it exceptional margins and a differentiated inventory, plus real regulatory exposure. Marriott franchises and manages hotels, earning fees underpinned by a powerful loyalty programme and a strong position in business and group travel.
Use this ABNB vs MAR comparison to think about where each has a durable advantage. Airbnb's advantage is supply that cannot be replicated by building hotels, and its main vulnerability is regulation. Marriott's advantage is loyalty and corporate travel relationships, and its main dependency is third-party owners choosing to build.
MAR holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MAR leads on both 1-year return (+34.29%) and forward P/E quality (26.67x vs 27.51x for ABNB), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, ABNB is growing revenue faster (16.50%), while MAR maintains the higher operating margin (65.28%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +7.51% for ABNB and +8.42% for MAR.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want a capital-light marketplace with very high margins and strong free cash flow
- Believe alternative accommodation will keep taking share of travel spending
- Value differentiated supply that hotels cannot replicate
- Accept city-level regulatory risk as the central threat
- Prefer fee-based hotel exposure without owning real estate
- Value the loyalty programme and co-brand card economics as a durable moat
- Want exposure to business and group travel that Airbnb does not serve well
- Accept dependence on hotel owners funding new development
| Metric | ABNB | MAR |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 38.8 | 52.3 |
| AI ranki | #1231 | #354 |
| Latest closei | $157.47 | $352.03 |
| 1M returni | -16.27% | -1.85% |
| 6M returni | +28.16% | +10.86% |
| 1Y returni | +27.94% | +34.29% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ABNB | MAR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.93K (+29.3%) started 2025-09-25 | $13.49K (+34.9%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $9.04K (-9.6%) started 2021-09-27 | $24.17K (+141.7%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $10.88K (+8.8%) started 2020-12-10 | $61.15K (+511.5%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ABNB | MAR |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $101.91B | $91.55B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 38.95 | 36.38 |
| Forward P/Ei | 27.51 | 26.67 |
| Price/Salesi | 7.73 | 10.89 |
| EV/Revenuei | 6.90 | 14.74 |
| Analyst targeti | $182.98 | $380.64 |
| Target upsidei | +7.51% | +8.42% |
| Metric | ABNB | MAR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 16.50% | 11.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 33.40% | 4.30% |
| EPS growthi | +33.40% | +4.30% |
| FCF margini | +24.37% | +27.90% |
| Operating margini | 21.01% | 65.28% |
| Profit margini | 20.45% | 35.03% |
| ROIC proxyi | 34.54% | N/A |
| Return on equityi | 34.54% | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.83% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 28.36% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.16 | 1.12 |
| Debt/equityi | 32.00 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 1.41 | 0.54 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.68 | 0.48 |
Over the past year, ABNB and MAR have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.27), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ABNB | MAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +29.34% | +34.93% |
| CAGRi | +29.39% | +34.99% | |
| Volatilityi | 35.79% | 27.26% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.77 | 1.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.24 | 1.70 | |
| Max drawdowni | 21.48% | 18.32% | |
| Current drawdowni | 17.34% | 12.55% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.90% | 5.25% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.59% | 7.17% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.56% | 6.97% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.70% | 9.99% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -9.64% | +134.77% |
| CAGRi | -2.01% | +18.63% | |
| Volatilityi | 44.40% | 28.73% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.07 | 0.58 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.11 | 0.86 | |
| Max drawdowni | 60.19% | 30.50% | |
| Current drawdowni | 24.00% | 12.55% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 34.71% | 8.51% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 36.46% | 10.97% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.43% | 7.40% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.63% | 14.36% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +8.82% | +465.36% |
| CAGRi | +1.47% | +18.92% | |
| Volatilityi | 46.04% | 32.89% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.16 | 0.56 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.24 | 0.82 | |
| Max drawdowni | 61.96% | 61.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 27.38% | 12.55% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 35.61% | 10.75% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 37.50% | 15.10% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.43% | 15.19% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.63% | 36.26% |
| Category | ABNB | MAR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Airbnb, Inc. | Marriott International, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Travel Services | Lodging |
| Core business | Two-sided marketplace connecting travellers with hosts offering short-term accommodation and experiences worldwide. Revenue comes from service fees on bookings; Airbnb owns no properties and employs no hotel staff. | Operates the largest hotel brand portfolio through franchising and management agreements rather than owning property, earning fees on room revenue across brands from select service to luxury. The Bonvoy loyalty programme and co-brand credit card arrangements are central to demand generation. |
| Investor focus | Nights and experiences booked, average daily rate, take rate, host supply growth, regulatory restrictions in major cities, and free cash flow conversion. | Revenue per available room, net rooms growth and pipeline, fee revenue mix, loyalty and credit card economics, and shareholder returns. |
- Marketplace model requires almost no capital to add supply, producing very high margins and strong free cash flow
- Supply is genuinely differentiated, covering locations and property types hotels cannot offer
- Brand recognition strong enough that a large share of traffic arrives directly rather than through paid search
- Asset-light fee model generates high-margin, recurring revenue without owning hotels
- Bonvoy loyalty programme and co-brand cards drive direct bookings and reduce reliance on booking sites
- Strong position in business travel and group bookings, which Airbnb serves poorly
- City-level short-term rental regulation can remove supply in major markets with little notice
- Hosts are independent, so quality and pricing consistency are harder to control than in a hotel system
- Dependent on discretionary travel demand with no owned real estate to fall back on
- Fee revenue tracks hotel occupancy and rates, so demand shocks pass straight through
- Growth depends on third-party owners financing new hotel construction
- Competes with booking platforms for control of the customer relationship
Compare more than two at a time
This page is a fixed writeup on ABNB and MAR. Our comparison engine is the interactive version: load up to five tickers, switch timeframes, and get the correlation, drawdown, and overlap analysis that a static page can't show.
Add three more names beside ABNB and MAR, mixing stocks and ETFs in the same table — useful when the real question is which of a whole peer group to own.
AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
A scatter plot of forward P/E against return on equity, plus drawdown and 30-day rolling volatility charts, to separate what is cheap from what is merely beaten down.
For ETFs, a top-holdings comparison that exposes hidden overlap between funds. Every comparison exports to CSV for your own spreadsheet work.
Two comparisons a week are free without an account. A 14-day trial removes the limit and adds AI price forecasts, stock rankings, saved watchlists, and the intrinsic value calculator — no credit card required.
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.