UAL vs ALK Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
United and Alaska Air Group both operate full-service U.S. airline networks, but at very different scales: United is a global major with extensive international long-haul routes and loyalty revenue, while Alaska is a regionally focused West Coast carrier that significantly expanded its footprint by acquiring Hawaiian Airlines in 2024. The comparison largely comes down to United's global scale and premium revenue versus Alaska's more contained, integration-driven growth story.
Use this UAL vs ALK comparison to weigh United's global scale and loyalty revenue against Alaska's regional focus and Hawaiian integration upside.
UAL holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. UAL leads on both 1-year return (-7.64%) and forward P/E quality (7.26x vs 8.35x for ALK), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. UAL leads on both revenue growth (16.00%) and operating margin (5.53%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for UAL (+45.94%) than for ALK (+42.20%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to global long-haul and international travel demand
- Value a large, diversified loyalty and co-brand credit card business
- Prefer the scale and network depth of a global full-service major
- Are comfortable with industry-wide fuel-cost and cyclicality risk
- Want exposure to West Coast and Hawaii travel demand specifically
- Believe the Hawaiian integration will continue to unlock cost and network synergies
- Prefer a smaller, more regionally focused airline than a global major
- See relative value in a carrier still working through a large acquisition
| Metric | UAL | ALK |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.3 | 25.0 |
| AI ranki | #810 | #2754 |
| Latest closei | $96.10 | $35.13 |
| 1M returni | -9.60% | -11.47% |
| 3M returni | -16.73% | -22.81% |
| 6M returni | -5.60% | -22.62% |
| 1Y returni | -7.64% | -28.07% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | UAL | ALK |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.79K (-2.1%) started 2025-10-16 | $7.35K (-26.5%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $20.37K (+103.7%) started 2021-10-18 | $6.12K (-38.8%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $18.12K (+81.2%) started 2016-10-17 | $4.88K (-51.2%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | UAL | ALK |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $35.9B | $4.59B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 10.36 | 94.14 |
| Forward P/Ei | 7.26 | 8.35 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.48 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.84 | 0.65 |
| Analyst targeti | $161.41 | $58.53 |
| Target upsidei | +45.94% | +42.20% |
| Metric | UAL | ALK |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 16.00% | 9.70% |
| Earnings growthi | -17.20% | -68.30% |
| EPS growthi | -17.20% | -68.30% |
| FCF margini | +1.45% | -0.16% |
| Operating margini | 5.53% | -2.93% |
| Profit margini | 5.56% | -1.18% |
| ROIC proxyi | 23.25% | -4.60% |
| Return on equityi | 23.25% | -4.60% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.29 | 1.28 |
| Debt/equityi | 201.64 | 207.52 |
| Current ratioi | 0.78 | 0.55 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.69 | 0.47 |
Over the past year, UAL and ALK have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.81), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | UAL | ALK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -2.13% | -26.48% |
| CAGRi | -2.13% | -26.51% | |
| Volatilityi | 48.00% | 51.90% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.10 | -0.42 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.15 | -0.62 | |
| Max drawdowni | 29.40% | 43.22% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.40% | 41.65% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.07% | 21.21% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.74% | 24.53% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.70% | 9.41% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.04% | 20.80% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +103.73% | -38.82% |
| CAGRi | +15.31% | -9.37% | |
| Volatilityi | 48.97% | 43.38% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.44 | -0.12 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.67 | -0.17 | |
| Max drawdowni | 49.19% | 55.37% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.40% | 54.14% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.79% | 28.48% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.98% | 31.24% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.61% | 14.22% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 29.73% | 22.18% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +81.22% | -51.17% |
| CAGRi | +6.13% | -6.92% | |
| Volatilityi | 51.75% | 44.03% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.29 | -0.04 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.42 | -0.06 | |
| Max drawdowni | 79.40% | 76.50% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.40% | 64.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 31.78% | 44.35% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 39.09% | 47.17% | |
| Max daily dropi | 30.29% | 23.24% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 56.67% | 45.01% |
| Category | UAL | ALK |
|---|---|---|
| Company | United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | Alaska Air Group, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Airlines | Airlines |
| Core business | United operates one of the largest global full-service airline networks, with a hub system spanning major U.S. cities and extensive international long-haul routes. | Alaska Air Group operates Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines under a combined structure following its 2024 acquisition of Hawaiian, focused on West Coast, Hawaii, and growing transcontinental and international routes. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch United's international and premium cabin revenue, loyalty program monetization, and capacity discipline against rising fuel costs. | Investors are focused on integration progress from the Hawaiian acquisition, including the shared reservations system migration, and whether the combined network is improving margins. |
- Extensive global hub network with strong international long-haul exposure
- Large, high-margin loyalty and co-brand credit card business
- Scale advantages in premium and business travel demand
- Hawaiian acquisition expanded reach into Hawaii and trans-Pacific routes
- Strong regional brand loyalty on the West Coast
- Integration milestones, including the reservations system merge, are largely on track
- Rising jet fuel costs pressuring industry-wide margins
- Periodic speculation about further industry consolidation, including with American Airlines, remains unconfirmed
- High fixed costs and sensitivity to global travel demand cycles
- Integration execution risk as Hawaiian is fully absorbed
- Smaller scale than global full-service majors like United
- Shared industry exposure to fuel costs and demand cyclicality
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