MSCI vs SPGI Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Both MSCI and SPGI are exceptional financial data businesses with wide moats, high margins, and mission-critical status among global institutional investors — MSCI as the pure-play investment index and analytics company, and SPGI as the diversified financial intelligence conglomerate combining indices, ratings, commodities, and market data.
MSCI vs SPGI represents two elite financial data franchises — MSCI's focused index and analytics purity versus SPGI's diversified financial intelligence empire, both with extraordinary competitive moats.
MSCI holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MSCI has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+6.70% vs -8.98%), though SPGI has the better forward P/E setup (21.88x vs 25.37x for MSCI). MSCI leads on both revenue growth (12.20%) and operating margin (56.30%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MSCI (+21.25%) than for SPGI (+17.25%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want a pure-play financial data company focused on investment indices, ESG analytics, and risk tools with extremely high margins
- Value MSCI's AUM-linked index revenues as a royalty on global passive investing growth
- Prefer a simpler, more focused business model than SPGI's broader financial intelligence diversification
- Want broader diversified financial data exposure spanning indices, credit ratings, commodities, and market intelligence
- See credit ratings revenue recovering as debt issuance normalizes from rate-hike-suppressed levels
- Value IHS Markit synergies adding commodity and alternative data capabilities to SPGI's already strong franchise
| Metric | MSCI | SPGI |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 59.2 | 50.4 |
| AI ranki | #167 | #489 |
| Latest closei | $569.08 | $429.64 |
| 1M returni | +5.27% | +5.62% |
| 3M returni | -9.48% | -4.70% |
| 6M returni | +0.09% | -2.92% |
| 1Y returni | +6.70% | -8.98% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MSCI | SPGI |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.65K (+6.5%) started 2025-10-17 | $9.08K (-9.2%) started 2025-10-17 |
| 5Y ago | $9.95K (-0.5%) started 2021-10-18 | $10.19K (+1.9%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $83K (+730.0%) started 2016-10-17 | $41.17K (+311.7%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MSCI | SPGI |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $41.49B | $130.56B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 31.26 | 26.96 |
| Forward P/Ei | 25.37 | 21.88 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 10.99 |
| EV/Revenuei | 14.30 | 9.14 |
| Analyst targeti | $692.06 | $519.30 |
| Target upsidei | +21.25% | +17.25% |
| Metric | MSCI | SPGI |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 12.20% | 10.40% |
| Earnings growthi | 19.60% | 17.70% |
| EPS growthi | +19.60% | +17.70% |
| FCF margini | +35.84% | +33.79% |
| Operating margini | 56.30% | 44.79% |
| Profit margini | 40.73% | 30.54% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | 14.26% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | 14.26% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.44% | 0.88% |
| Payout ratioi | 42.08% | 23.49% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.22 | 1.07 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | 42.98 |
| Current ratioi | 0.89 | 0.95 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.77 | 0.83 |
Over the past year, MSCI and SPGI have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.69), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MSCI | SPGI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +6.50% | -9.20% |
| CAGRi | +6.52% | -9.23% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.99% | 31.46% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.21 | -0.29 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.29 | -0.38 | |
| Max drawdowni | 18.07% | 29.48% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.61% | 21.36% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.27% | 16.46% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.56% | 19.31% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.14% | 11.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.30% | 16.77% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -4.46% | -1.16% |
| CAGRi | -0.91% | -0.23% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.23% | 25.49% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.02 | -0.06 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.02 | -0.08 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.74% | 39.76% | |
| Current drawdowni | 12.43% | 23.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.56% | 15.09% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 20.57% | 18.19% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.49% | 11.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.00% | 16.77% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +653.26% | +279.38% |
| CAGRi | +22.38% | +14.27% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.52% | 26.40% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.66 | 0.47 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.94 | 0.66 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.74% | 39.76% | |
| Current drawdowni | 12.43% | 23.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.44% | 9.93% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.29% | 13.92% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.49% | 15.19% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.28% | 20.46% |
| Category | MSCI | SPGI |
|---|---|---|
| Company | MSCI Inc. | S&P Global Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges |
| Core business | MSCI provides investment decision support tools through equity indices (MSCI Emerging Markets, MSCI World), ESG ratings and analytics, real estate analytics (via MSCI Real Assets), and risk management tools, charging licensing fees to global asset managers. | S&P Global provides financial intelligence through its market intelligence platform, S&P and Dow Jones equity indices, credit ratings (S&P Global Ratings), commodity insights (Platts), and mobility data — a diversified financial data conglomerate following the IHS Markit merger. |
| Investor focus | Investors track MSCI's recurring subscription revenue growth, AUM-linked index licensing revenue tied to ETFs and funds benchmarked to MSCI indices, retention rates above 95%, and EBITDA margins in the 50%+ range reflecting extremely efficient scaling. | Investors track S&P Global's subscription revenue growth across market intelligence and indices, credit ratings revenue tied to debt issuance volumes, commodity insights subscription growth, and merger synergy realization from IHS Markit. |
- MSCI indices are the most widely followed international equity benchmarks, creating a durable royalty-like fee stream from ETF and fund assets benchmarked to them
- Recurring subscription revenue with 95%+ retention demonstrates the mission-critical nature of MSCI tools for global asset managers
- ESG analytics positioning is well-established as ESG integration accelerates globally among institutional investors
- S&P 500 index royalties are some of the most durable economic assets in financial services — every ETF tracking the index pays licensing fees
- Credit ratings franchise (S&P Ratings) is one of only three major global rating agencies with oligopolistic pricing power
- IHS Markit merger created a diversified financial data and analytics company with enormous breadth across commodities, rates, equity, and credit markets
- AUM-linked revenues can decline in bear markets as asset values fall, creating earnings volatility despite high-quality recurring revenue
- Index business faces philosophical questions about whether passive investing growth eventually cannibalizes active management
- ESG ratings standards debate and potential regulatory scrutiny of ESG frameworks could affect that growth segment
- Debt issuance cycles heavily influence credit ratings revenue — rate hikes reduce bond issuance, directly hurting ratings volumes
- IHS Markit integration complexity and cost structure require careful execution to realize synergy targets
- Regulatory scrutiny of credit rating agencies continues, particularly around potential conflicts of interest in the issuer-pays model
Compare more than two at a time
This page is a fixed writeup on MSCI and SPGI. Our comparison engine is the interactive version: load up to five tickers, switch timeframes, and get the correlation, drawdown, and overlap analysis that a static page can't show.
Add three more names beside MSCI and SPGI, mixing stocks and ETFs in the same table — useful when the real question is which of a whole peer group to own.
AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
A scatter plot of forward P/E against return on equity, plus drawdown and 30-day rolling volatility charts, to separate what is cheap from what is merely beaten down.
For ETFs, a top-holdings comparison that exposes hidden overlap between funds. Every comparison exports to CSV for your own spreadsheet work.
Two comparisons a week are free without an account. A 14-day trial removes the limit and adds AI price forecasts, stock rankings, saved watchlists, and the intrinsic value calculator — no credit card required.
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.