CSX vs CP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CSX and Canadian Pacific Kansas City are both major North American Class I railroads, but CSX operates an established network concentrated across the eastern United States, while CPKC operates a unique single-line network spanning Canada, the United States, and Mexico following its merger with Kansas City Southern.
CSX offers exposure to an established eastern rail network with a long efficiency improvement track record, while CPKC offers a differentiated cross-border growth story tied to merger synergies and Mexico freight potential. Consider whether you prefer CSX's established eastern network or CPKC's cross-border growth narrative.
CP holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CSX has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+51.89% vs +20.11%), though CP has the better forward P/E setup (20.65x vs 22.58x for CSX). CP leads on both revenue growth (12.60%) and operating margin (38.98%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CP (+13.20%) than for CSX (+3.63%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to an established, diversified eastern United States rail network
- Value a long track record of operating ratio improvement through efficiency initiatives
- Believe diversified freight mix across bulk, intermodal, and merchandise categories provides earnings stability
- Prefer an established network story over a merger-integration growth narrative
- Believe the unique cross-border network spanning Canada, the United States, and Mexico provides a durable competitive advantage
- See long-term upside from merger synergy realization and Mexico industrial and nearshoring growth
- Are comfortable with the operational complexity of integrating a three-country rail network
- Want exposure to a differentiated growth story among the major Class I railroads
| Metric | CSX | CP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 54.9 | 52.1 |
| AI ranki | #280 | #405 |
| Latest closei | $49.41 | $91.60 |
| 1M returni | -1.71% | +0.16% |
| 6M returni | +21.70% | +7.89% |
| 1Y returni | +51.89% | +20.11% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CSX | CP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $15.24K (+52.4%) started 2025-09-08 | $12.09K (+20.9%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $17.32K (+73.2%) started 2021-09-09 | $13.97K (+39.7%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $67.48K (+574.8%) started 2016-09-09 | $35.38K (+253.8%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CSX | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $94.99B | $78.55B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 29.81 | 28.82 |
| Forward P/Ei | 22.58 | 20.65 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.79 | 6.73 |
| Analyst targeti | $53.14 | $101.14 |
| Target upsidei | +3.63% | +13.20% |
| Metric | CSX | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.10% | 12.60% |
| Earnings growthi | 22.70% | -13.50% |
| EPS growthi | +22.70% | -13.50% |
| FCF margini | +13.46% | +14.12% |
| Operating margini | 38.42% | 38.98% |
| Profit margini | 22.21% | 25.03% |
| ROIC proxyi | 24.36% | 8.15% |
| Return on equityi | 24.36% | 8.15% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.09% | 0.85% |
| Betai | 1.21 | 1.22 |
| Debt/equityi | 138.07 | 52.82 |
| Current ratioi | 0.82 | 0.59 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.69 | 0.45 |
Over the past year, CSX and CP have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.60), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CSX | CP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +52.36% | +20.11% |
| CAGRi | +52.47% | +20.12% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.27% | 22.57% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.81 | 0.73 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.97 | 1.08 | |
| Max drawdowni | 11.58% | 13.10% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.18% | 5.26% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 2.68% | 4.43% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 3.72% | 5.58% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.81% | 4.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.42% | 6.14% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +65.17% | +34.28% |
| CAGRi | +10.56% | +6.08% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.47% | 24.25% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.36 | 0.18 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.51 | 0.26 | |
| Max drawdowni | 29.44% | 25.88% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.18% | 5.26% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.79% | 9.78% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.91% | 11.47% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.71% | 6.60% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.25% | 10.59% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +496.94% | +222.54% |
| CAGRi | +19.57% | +12.43% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.74% | 25.53% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.62 | 0.41 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.93 | 0.59 | |
| Max drawdowni | 40.55% | 33.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.18% | 5.26% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.43% | 7.73% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.98% | 9.89% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.55% | 17.57% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.55% | 21.11% |
| Category | CSX | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | CSX Corporation | Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Railroads | Railroads |
| Core business | A Class I freight railroad operating an extensive network across the eastern United States, transporting bulk commodities, intermodal containers, and merchandise freight to industrial, agricultural, and consumer customers. | A Class I freight railroad operating the only single-line rail network connecting Canada, the United States, and Mexico, formed through the merger of Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern, transporting bulk, intermodal, and merchandise freight. |
| Investor focus | Operating ratio improvement trends, intermodal and merchandise volume growth, and network capacity investment supporting service reliability. | Merger synergy realization progress, cross-border Mexico freight volume growth, and network integration benefits from the combined rail system. |
- Extensive eastern United States rail network provides access to major population centers, ports, and industrial regions
- Diversified freight mix across bulk, intermodal, and merchandise categories provides multiple demand drivers
- Ongoing efficiency initiatives have historically supported operating ratio improvement over time
- Unique single-line network spanning Canada, the United States, and Mexico provides a differentiated cross-border freight offering
- Merger with Kansas City Southern created new single-line routing options that can capture freight previously requiring interchange between multiple railroads
- Growing Mexico industrial and nearshoring activity provides a potential long-term freight volume growth driver
- Freight volumes remain sensitive to broader industrial production, coal demand trends, and consumer goods activity
- Network capacity and service reliability issues at points in the cycle can affect customer satisfaction and volume retention
- Regulatory scrutiny of railroad pricing and competition practices can influence the operating environment
- Full realization of merger synergies and cross-border volume growth potential will take time to play out
- Mexico trade policy, tariff developments, and cross-border regulatory dynamics can influence freight volume growth
- Network integration across three countries introduces operational complexity relative to single-country railroads
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