CSX vs CNI Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CSX and CNI are both high-quality railroads with different geography. CSX serves the densely populated eastern United States with intermodal and industrial freight plus declining coal, and shorter average hauls. Canadian National spans Canada and reaches the Gulf of Mexico, with a grain and forest products franchise, currency exposure, and a Canadian labour environment that has produced network stoppages.
Use this CSX vs CNI comparison to think about geography and haul length. Long hauls favour rail economics, which is part of why a transcontinental network with Gulf access is valuable. CSX trades some of that for population density and port proximity in the east, with coal decline as a known headwind it continues to absorb.
CNI holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CSX has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+38.32% vs +33.13%), though CNI has the better forward P/E setup (18.56x vs 22.58x for CSX). CNI leads on both revenue growth (11.30%) and operating margin (40.27%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CNI (+16.17%) than for CSX (+3.63%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want a dense eastern US network close to population centres and ports
- Believe truck-to-rail intermodal conversion will continue
- Value strong margins and consistent capital return in US dollars
- Accept coal decline and shorter average haul economics
- Want a transcontinental network with unique three-coast reach
- Value grain and forest product diversification
- Appreciate a long record of operational efficiency
- Accept Canadian dollar exposure and labour disruption risk
| Metric | CSX | CNI |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 54.4 | 42.6 |
| AI ranki | #260 | #839 |
| Latest closei | $46.78 | $120.93 |
| 1M returni | -9.62% | -4.67% |
| 6M returni | +17.92% | +20.52% |
| 1Y returni | +38.32% | +33.13% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CSX | CNI |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.85K (+38.5%) started 2025-09-25 | $13.54K (+35.4%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $16.82K (+68.2%) started 2021-09-27 | $12.62K (+26.2%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $59.97K (+499.7%) started 2016-09-26 | $28.06K (+180.6%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CSX | CNI |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $94.99B | $72.97B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 29.81 | 21.54 |
| Forward P/Ei | 22.58 | 18.56 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.79 | 5.36 |
| Analyst targeti | $53.14 | $140.14 |
| Target upsidei | +3.63% | +16.17% |
| Metric | CSX | CNI |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.10% | 11.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 22.70% | 10.20% |
| EPS growthi | +22.70% | +10.20% |
| FCF margini | +13.46% | +17.04% |
| Operating margini | 38.42% | 40.27% |
| Profit margini | 22.21% | 26.92% |
| ROIC proxyi | 24.36% | 22.02% |
| Return on equityi | 24.36% | 22.02% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.09% | 2.16% |
| Payout ratioi | 31.40% | 46.28% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.21 | 1.00 |
| Debt/equityi | 138.07 | 103.89 |
| Current ratioi | 0.82 | 0.87 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.69 | 0.50 |
Over the past year, CSX and CNI have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.58), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CSX | CNI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +38.48% | +33.13% |
| CAGRi | +38.55% | +33.16% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.25% | 21.76% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.38 | 1.22 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.21 | 1.73 | |
| Max drawdowni | 13.60% | 12.37% | |
| Current drawdowni | 12.12% | 6.89% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.18% | 2.59% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.42% | 3.76% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.81% | 5.93% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.42% | 6.29% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +60.42% | +13.68% |
| CAGRi | +9.92% | +2.60% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.48% | 22.03% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.33 | 0.02 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.48 | 0.03 | |
| Max drawdowni | 29.44% | 29.13% | |
| Current drawdowni | 12.12% | 6.89% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.85% | 13.31% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.95% | 15.23% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.71% | 6.23% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.25% | 9.39% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +430.55% | +128.58% |
| CAGRi | +18.17% | +8.62% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.74% | 22.68% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.58 | 0.28 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.87 | 0.39 | |
| Max drawdowni | 40.55% | 29.15% | |
| Current drawdowni | 12.12% | 6.89% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.48% | 9.21% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.00% | 11.87% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.55% | 11.66% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.55% | 17.27% |
| Category | CSX | CNI |
|---|---|---|
| Company | CSX Corporation | Canadian National Railway Company |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Railroads | Railroads |
| Core business | Eastern US railroad serving states east of the Mississippi with a network reaching major Atlantic and Gulf ports, hauling intermodal containers, chemicals, agricultural products, metals, automotive freight, and coal. | Canadian railroad with a network spanning Canada coast to coast and extending south through the United States to the Gulf of Mexico, hauling grain, forest products, petroleum and chemicals, intermodal, and metals. |
| Investor focus | Volume by commodity group, intermodal growth, coal volumes and export pricing, operating ratio and service metrics, and capital returns. | Grain and forest product volumes, intermodal traffic through Canadian ports, operating ratio, Canadian dollar effects, and labour relations. |
- Dense eastern network serving a large share of the US population and major ports
- Intermodal exposure benefits from freight shifting from truck to rail over long distances
- Strong margins and consistent cash generation funding dividends and buybacks
- Only railroad reaching three coasts, giving unique routing options including Gulf access
- Diversified commodity mix with strong grain and forest product franchises
- Long record of operational efficiency and disciplined cost control
- Coal remains a meaningful volume category in structural long-term decline
- Eastern network has shorter average hauls than western railroads, which affects economics
- Service reliability problems attract regulatory scrutiny and customer pushback
- Results reported for US investors are affected by Canadian dollar movements
- Canadian rail labour disputes have caused significant network stoppages
- Grain volumes depend on harvest size, which varies with weather
Compare more than two at a time
This page is a fixed writeup on CSX and CNI. Our comparison engine is the interactive version: load up to five tickers, switch timeframes, and get the correlation, drawdown, and overlap analysis that a static page can't show.
Add three more names beside CSX and CNI, mixing stocks and ETFs in the same table — useful when the real question is which of a whole peer group to own.
AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
A scatter plot of forward P/E against return on equity, plus drawdown and 30-day rolling volatility charts, to separate what is cheap from what is merely beaten down.
For ETFs, a top-holdings comparison that exposes hidden overlap between funds. Every comparison exports to CSV for your own spreadsheet work.
Two comparisons a week are free without an account. A 14-day trial removes the limit and adds AI price forecasts, stock rankings, saved watchlists, and the intrinsic value calculator — no credit card required.
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.