VALE vs RIO Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Vale and Rio Tinto are both major global mining companies with significant iron ore operations, but Vale is more heavily concentrated in iron ore and nickel production centered in Brazil, while Rio Tinto has a more diversified commodity mix spanning iron ore, aluminum, and copper across multiple global regions.
VALE offers more concentrated exposure to iron ore and nickel price cycles centered on Brazilian operations, while RIO offers more diversified exposure across iron ore, aluminum, and copper spanning multiple regions. The decision depends on whether you prefer concentrated commodity leverage or diversified mining exposure with more geographic balance.
RIO holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. RIO has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+21.15% vs +1.58%), though VALE has the better forward P/E setup (5.80x vs 9.59x for RIO). RIO leads on both revenue growth (15.50%) and operating margin (28.05%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for VALE (+40.41%) than for RIO (+25.83%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want concentrated exposure to global iron ore and nickel price cycles
- Value the company's scale advantages as one of the world's largest iron ore producers
- Believe growing nickel and copper production provides exposure to the energy transition
- Are comfortable with additional considerations tied to Brazilian operations and regulatory environment
- Want diversified exposure across iron ore, aluminum, and copper
- Value operations concentrated in stable jurisdictions like Australia
- Believe growing copper exposure aligns with long-term electrification demand trends
- Prefer a more diversified commodity mix over concentrated single-commodity exposure
| Metric | VALE | RIO |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 52.5 | 55.5 |
| AI ranki | #1011 | #849 |
| Latest closei | $11.34 | $82.73 |
| 1M returni | -17.59% | -12.19% |
| 3M returni | -20.00% | -11.84% |
| 6M returni | -26.37% | -14.28% |
| 1Y returni | +1.58% | +21.15% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | VALE | RIO |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.92K (+9.2%) started 2025-11-03 | $12.99K (+29.9%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $23.66K (+136.6%) started 2021-11-03 | $28.11K (+181.1%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $100.18K (+901.8%) started 2016-11-03 | $152.87K (+1428.7%) started 2016-11-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | VALE | RIO |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $46.73B | $132.75B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 68.63 | 11.06 |
| Forward P/Ei | 5.80 | 9.59 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.22 | 2.15 |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.63 | 2.46 |
| Analyst targeti | $15.42 | $102.71 |
| Target upsidei | +40.41% | +25.83% |
| Metric | VALE | RIO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -3.90% | 15.50% |
| Earnings growthi | -55.90% | 46.90% |
| EPS growthi | -55.90% | +46.90% |
| FCF margini | +4.00% | +5.82% |
| Operating margini | 19.31% | 28.05% |
| Profit margini | 1.01% | 19.58% |
| ROIC proxyi | 0.26% | 19.31% |
| Return on equityi | 0.26% | 19.31% |
| Dividend yieldi | 7.44% | 5.62% |
| Payout ratioi | 526.96% | 54.46% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 1 yr | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| Debt/equityi | 55.05 | 31.87 |
| Current ratioi | 1.10 | 1.42 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.62 | 0.93 |
Over the past year, VALE and RIO have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.75), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | VALE | RIO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +0.66% | +23.51% |
| CAGRi | +0.66% | +23.60% | |
| Volatilityi | 33.52% | 30.52% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.05 | 0.70 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.07 | 1.01 | |
| Max drawdowni | 35.47% | 25.31% | |
| Current drawdowni | 34.55% | 24.54% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.49% | 7.16% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.51% | 9.92% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.27% | 5.56% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.86% | 11.07% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +42.56% | +88.31% |
| CAGRi | +7.35% | +13.50% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.89% | 28.99% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.25 | 0.43 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.37 | 0.62 | |
| Max drawdowni | 49.81% | 35.25% | |
| Current drawdowni | 34.55% | 24.54% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 25.27% | 11.33% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 28.48% | 13.79% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.21% | 6.44% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.22% | 14.82% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +250.46% | +410.13% |
| CAGRi | +13.37% | +17.71% | |
| Volatilityi | 40.11% | 30.30% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.40 | 0.54 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.59 | 0.79 | |
| Max drawdowni | 57.60% | 37.47% | |
| Current drawdowni | 34.55% | 24.54% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.66% | 10.69% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.31% | 13.27% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.01% | 9.42% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 29.25% | 17.25% |
| Category | VALE | RIO |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Vale S.A. (ADR) | Rio Tinto Group (ADR) |
| Sector | Mining | Materials |
| Industry | Other Industrial Metals & Mining | Other Industrial Metals & Mining |
| Core business | A Brazilian mining company and one of the world's largest producers of iron ore and nickel, with operations spanning mining, logistics, and metals processing primarily serving global steel and battery supply chains. | A global mining company producing iron ore, aluminum, copper, and other minerals through operations spanning Australia, the Americas, and other regions worldwide. |
| Investor focus | Iron ore price trends and Chinese steel demand, production volume recovery following past operational disruptions, and nickel and copper exposure tied to the energy transition. | Iron ore price trends and Chinese steel demand, diversification benefits from aluminum and copper segments, and capital allocation between dividends, buybacks, and growth projects. |
- Position as one of the world's largest iron ore producers provides significant scale advantages and cost competitiveness in the global market
- Growing nickel and copper production provides exposure to metals essential for electric vehicle batteries and the broader energy transition
- Extensive logistics infrastructure supports efficient transportation of iron ore from mining operations to global export markets
- Diversification across iron ore, aluminum, and copper provides more balanced commodity exposure than a single-commodity-focused miner
- Long-established operations in stable jurisdictions like Australia provide operational reliability and lower geopolitical risk
- Growing copper exposure provides alignment with long-term demand growth tied to electrification and the energy transition
- Revenue is heavily concentrated in iron ore, making the company particularly sensitive to Chinese steel demand and iron ore price cycles
- Has faced significant operational and legal challenges in the past related to dam safety incidents at its Brazilian operations
- Brazilian currency and regulatory environment introduce additional considerations relative to mining peers based in other jurisdictions
- Despite diversification, iron ore remains the largest single contributor to revenue, keeping the company sensitive to Chinese steel demand cycles
- Large-scale mining operations carry ongoing environmental, safety, and community relations considerations across multiple jurisdictions
- Commodity price cycles for its various minerals do not always move in the same direction, adding complexity to overall earnings forecasting
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