GILD vs MRNA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Gilead Sciences and Moderna represent contrasting biotechnology profiles, with Gilead offering an established, highly profitable HIV franchise diversifying into oncology, while Moderna works to rebuild its business around messenger RNA technology following a substantial revenue decline from its pandemic-era COVID-19 vaccine peak.
Gilead offers exposure to a durable, profitable core franchise with steady diversification into oncology, while Moderna offers a higher-risk, platform-technology reset opportunity as it seeks new growth beyond COVID-19 vaccines. Consider whether you prefer Gilead's established profitability or Moderna's platform technology turnaround potential.
GILD holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MRNA has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+817.06% vs +37.21%), though GILD has the better forward P/E setup (14.73x vs -30.13x for MRNA). GILD leads on both revenue growth (10.20%) and operating margin (33.68%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for GILD (+8.05%) than for MRNA (-22.73%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a dominant, cash-generative HIV treatment and prevention franchise
- Believe the growing oncology business will provide meaningful revenue diversification over time
- Value strong free cash flow generation and established profitability
- Prefer a more established, lower-risk biopharmaceutical business
- Believe messenger RNA technology has broad long-term applicability across vaccines, rare disease, and oncology
- See turnaround potential as pipeline diversification efforts progress beyond the COVID-19 vaccine franchise
- Are comfortable with continued cash burn during the transition to new therapeutic areas
- Are willing to accept higher risk in exchange for platform technology upside potential
| Metric | GILD | MRNA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 53.9 | 57.4 |
| AI ranki | #507 | #198 |
| Latest closei | $167.47 | $228.44 |
| 1M returni | +15.70% | +20.23% |
| 3M returni | +23.82% | +300.84% |
| 6M returni | +25.46% | +389.06% |
| 1Y returni | +37.21% | +817.06% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | GILD | MRNA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.62K (+36.2%) started 2025-11-04 | $96.19K (+861.9%) started 2025-11-04 |
| 5Y ago | $33.6K (+236.0%) started 2021-11-04 | $8.04K (-19.6%) started 2021-11-04 |
| 10Y ago | $45.84K (+358.4%) started 2016-11-04 | $122.82K (+1128.2%) started 2018-12-07 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | GILD | MRNA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $180.64B | $55.09B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.74 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.73 | -30.13 |
| Price/Salesi | 4.87 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 6.63 | 23.00 |
| Analyst targeti | $157.41 | $106.63 |
| Target upsidei | +8.05% | -22.73% |
| Metric | GILD | MRNA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.20% | 2.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 54.80% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | +54.80% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +32.07% | +13.43% |
| Operating margini | 33.68% | -557.93% |
| Profit margini | -10.64% | -141.43% |
| ROIC proxyi | -20.68% | -39.00% |
| Return on equityi | -20.68% | -39.00% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.20% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 43.46% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 0.34 | 0.90 |
| Debt/equityi | 223.47 | 19.04 |
| Current ratioi | 1.26 | 2.29 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.90 | 2.07 |
Over the past year, GILD and MRNA have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.21), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | GILD | MRNA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +36.15% | +861.85% |
| CAGRi | +36.24% | +866.09% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.10% | 194.55% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.13 | 1.72 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.81 | 6.66 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.03% | 34.16% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.00% | 7.07% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.23% | 10.99% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.34% | 14.11% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.72% | 23.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 5.98% | 18.08% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +189.71% | -19.57% |
| CAGRi | +23.71% | -4.26% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.95% | 104.44% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.80 | 0.28 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.25 | 0.63 | |
| Max drawdowni | 26.59% | 93.93% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.00% | 38.01% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.88% | 71.81% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.93% | 73.94% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.15% | 23.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.78% | 31.60% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +216.92% | +1128.17% |
| CAGRi | +12.23% | +37.31% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.67% | 96.57% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.40 | 0.66 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.61 | 1.33 | |
| Max drawdowni | 30.47% | 95.38% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.00% | 52.85% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.91% | 57.57% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.94% | 65.33% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.15% | 23.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.29% | 33.81% |
| Category | GILD | MRNA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Gilead Sciences, Inc. | Moderna, Inc. |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Drug Manufacturers - General | Biotechnology |
| Core business | A biopharmaceutical company best known for its dominant HIV treatment and prevention franchise, alongside a growing oncology business and other therapeutic areas including liver disease treatments. | A biotechnology company built around messenger RNA technology, initially known for its COVID-19 vaccine, now working to expand its pipeline into other vaccines, rare disease treatments, and oncology therapies. |
| Investor focus | HIV franchise durability and market share trends, oncology portfolio growth, and new drug launch contributions from the pipeline. | Respiratory vaccine portfolio revenue trends, pipeline diversification progress beyond COVID-19 vaccines, and cash burn management as the company invests in new therapeutic areas. |
- Dominant position in HIV treatment and prevention provides a durable, cash-generative core franchise
- Growing oncology business diversifies revenue beyond the core HIV franchise into a large addressable market
- Strong free cash flow generation from the HIV franchise supports continued research and development and business development investment
- Messenger RNA technology platform provides a versatile foundation applicable across vaccines, rare disease, and oncology therapeutic areas
- Established manufacturing and commercial infrastructure built during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout supports future product launches
- Pipeline diversification efforts into new vaccines and rare disease treatments could reduce reliance on the COVID-19 franchise over time
- HIV franchise faces eventual patent expiration and competitive dynamics that require pipeline replenishment over time
- Oncology business operates in a highly competitive therapeutic area against numerous well-resourced competitors
- New drug launches require successful clinical execution and commercial adoption to offset any core franchise pressure
- Revenue has declined substantially from pandemic-era COVID-19 vaccine peak levels, requiring new products to offset the decline
- Pipeline diversification into new therapeutic areas carries clinical and commercial execution risk with uncertain timelines
- Cash burn from continued research and development investment requires successful new product launches to reach sustainable profitability
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