CAVA vs MCD Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Cava and McDonald's both operate in the restaurant industry, but Cava is an early-stage, rapidly expanding fast-casual Mediterranean chain with a small national footprint, while McDonald's is the world's largest, most mature quick-service restaurant chain with a globally diversified, largely franchised business model.
Cava offers early-stage growth potential tied to unit expansion and same-store sales momentum at a premium valuation, while McDonald's offers global scale, stability, and consistent dividend growth from a mature, franchise-driven business model. Consider whether you prioritize Cava's growth trajectory or McDonald's global scale and income characteristics.
MCD holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CAVA has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-8.81% vs -18.67%), though MCD has the better forward P/E setup (18.96x vs 83.47x for CAVA). On fundamentals, CAVA is growing revenue faster (31.30%), while MCD maintains the higher operating margin (46.48%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CAVA (+37.34%) than for MCD (+19.01%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to an early-stage restaurant chain with substantial unit growth runway across the United States
- Believe the better-for-you, customizable fast-casual dining category will continue gaining consumer share
- Are comfortable with the volatility and execution risk of a smaller, higher-growth restaurant company
- Prioritize growth potential over dividend income or a long operating track record
- Want exposure to the world's largest, most globally diversified quick-service restaurant chain
- Value the stable, capital-light royalty revenue generated by McDonald's highly franchised business model
- Prioritize a long track record of consistent dividend growth over higher-risk growth potential
- Prefer a mature, defensive restaurant holding over an early-stage growth story
| Metric | CAVA | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 35.6 | 49.1 |
| AI ranki | #1636 | #562 |
| Latest closei | $60.76 | $255.69 |
| 1M returni | -2.66% | -6.85% |
| 6M returni | -25.73% | -22.71% |
| 1Y returni | -8.81% | -18.67% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CAVA | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.3K (-7.0%) started 2025-09-08 | $8.17K (-18.3%) started 2025-09-08 |
| 5Y ago | $15.93K (+59.3%) started 2023-06-16 | $12.61K (+26.1%) started 2021-09-09 |
| 10Y ago | $15.93K (+59.3%) started 2023-06-16 | $34.26K (+242.6%) started 2016-09-09 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CAVA | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $7.21B | $187.53B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 110.25 | 21.51 |
| Forward P/Ei | 83.47 | 18.96 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 8.55 |
| EV/Revenuei | 5.25 | 8.71 |
| Analyst targeti | $84.79 | $315.39 |
| Target upsidei | +37.34% | +19.01% |
| Metric | CAVA | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 31.30% | 3.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 19.80% | 5.70% |
| EPS growthi | +19.80% | +5.70% |
| FCF margini | -0.05% | +22.61% |
| Operating margini | 7.62% | 46.48% |
| Profit margini | 4.82% | 31.72% |
| ROIC proxyi | 8.32% | N/A |
| Return on equityi | 8.32% | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 2.81% |
| Betai | 1.75 | 0.42 |
| Debt/equityi | 61.90 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 2.48 | 1.08 |
| Quick ratioi | 2.36 | 0.82 |
Over the past year, CAVA and MCD have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.16), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CAVA | MCD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -7.01% | -18.26% |
| CAGRi | -7.03% | -18.30% | |
| Volatilityi | 59.33% | 18.56% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.09 | -1.24 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.14 | -1.65 | |
| Max drawdowni | 37.61% | 25.03% | |
| Current drawdowni | 37.61% | 25.03% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.64% | 9.60% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.45% | 12.61% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.20% | 3.41% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.23% | 6.79% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +59.27% | +16.06% |
| CAGRi | +15.50% | +3.02% | |
| Volatilityi | 58.96% | 17.74% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.46 | 0.00 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.70 | 0.01 | |
| Max drawdowni | 71.11% | 25.03% | |
| Current drawdowni | 59.73% | 25.03% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 31.78% | 6.13% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 38.49% | 8.20% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.63% | 5.71% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.51% | 8.35% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +59.27% | +173.53% |
| CAGRi | +15.50% | +10.59% | |
| Volatilityi | 58.96% | 20.56% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.46 | 0.38 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.70 | 0.54 | |
| Max drawdowni | 71.11% | 36.90% | |
| Current drawdowni | 59.73% | 25.03% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 31.78% | 5.39% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 38.49% | 7.62% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.63% | 15.88% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.51% | 27.07% |
| Category | CAVA | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Company | CAVA Group, Inc. | McDonald's Corporation |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | A fast-casual Mediterranean restaurant chain in a rapid unit growth phase across the United States, offering customizable bowls and pitas positioned within the better-for-you fast-casual dining category. | The world's largest restaurant chain by revenue, operating a globally diversified, largely franchised quick-service restaurant model spanning tens of thousands of locations across more than 100 countries. |
| Investor focus | New restaurant unit growth pace, same-restaurant sales growth, average unit volumes (AUV), and path to sustained profitability at scale. | Global same-store sales growth, franchise royalty revenue stability, digital and delivery channel growth, and consistent dividend growth. |
- Rapid, early-stage unit growth trajectory with substantial white space remaining across the United States
- Strong brand positioning within the growing better-for-you, customizable fast-casual dining category
- High same-restaurant sales growth reflecting strong consumer demand at existing locations
- Massive global scale and brand recognition across tens of thousands of restaurants in more than 100 countries
- Highly franchised business model generates stable, capital-light royalty revenue with high margins
- Long track record of consistent dividend growth supported by durable free cash flow generation
- Small national footprint relative to McDonald's means results are more sensitive to execution at each new location
- Premium valuation reflects high growth expectations that require sustained unit expansion and same-store sales momentum
- Limited long-term track record compared to McDonald's decades of operating history through multiple economic cycles
- Mature global footprint means overall growth depends more on same-store sales and menu innovation than new unit expansion
- Value-conscious consumer spending trends and competitive pricing pressure can weigh on traffic in certain markets
- International operations expose results to currency translation and geopolitical risk
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