CMG vs CAVA: Proven Fast-Casual Giant vs High-Growth Challenger: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Chipotle is the proven fast-casual category leader with over 3,600 locations, industry-leading margins, and a pristine balance sheet. CAVA is the high-growth challenger attacking a different cuisine category with strong early unit economics but a much smaller store base. CMG offers compounding at scale; CAVA offers the steeper growth curve of an earlier-stage concept.
This CMG vs CAVA comparison frames the classic growth-investing question: a mature compounder with a proven model versus an earlier-stage growth story with a longer runway. CMG is the benchmark for fast-casual execution; CAVA aims to replicate that trajectory in Mediterranean cuisine.
CMG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CAVA has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-7.81% vs -11.56%), though CMG has the better forward P/E setup (27.78x vs 83.47x for CAVA). On fundamentals, CAVA is growing revenue faster (31.30%), while CMG maintains the higher operating margin (16.11%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CAVA (+37.34%) than for CMG (+14.84%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the most proven fast-casual operator with a decades-long track record of execution
- Prefer a company with no debt, strong free cash flow, and an active buyback program
- Value consistency and predictability in same-store sales and margin performance
- Believe international expansion provides the next leg of unit growth for a mature domestic brand
- Want to own the next potential category-defining fast-casual brand at an earlier stage of its growth
- Believe the Mediterranean cuisine category has as much or more long-term potential as Mexican fast-casual
- Are willing to accept higher valuation risk in exchange for a steeper unit growth curve
- Value vertical integration and proprietary products as competitive moats in the restaurant space
| Metric | CMG | CAVA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.5 | 35.6 |
| AI ranki | #433 | #1636 |
| Latest closei | $36.96 | $60.76 |
| 1M returni | +7.13% | -8.18% |
| 6M returni | -0.27% | -23.45% |
| 1Y returni | -11.56% | -7.81% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CMG | CAVA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.93K (-10.7%) started 2025-09-04 | $9.21K (-7.9%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $9.75K (-2.5%) started 2021-09-07 | $15.93K (+59.3%) started 2023-06-16 |
| 10Y ago | $44.63K (+346.3%) started 2016-09-06 | $15.93K (+59.3%) started 2023-06-16 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CMG | CAVA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $48.12B | $7.21B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 35.21 | 110.25 |
| Forward P/Ei | 27.78 | 83.47 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.25 | 5.25 |
| Analyst targeti | $43.67 | $84.79 |
| Target upsidei | +14.84% | +37.34% |
| Metric | CMG | CAVA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 9.30% | 31.30% |
| Earnings growthi | -1.30% | 19.80% |
| EPS growthi | -1.30% | +19.80% |
| FCF margini | +8.99% | -0.05% |
| Operating margini | 16.11% | 7.62% |
| Profit margini | 11.43% | 4.82% |
| ROIC proxyi | 49.56% | 8.32% |
| Return on equityi | 49.56% | 8.32% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 0.94 | 1.75 |
| Debt/equityi | 246.35 | 61.90 |
| Current ratioi | 0.71 | 2.48 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.59 | 2.36 |
Over the past year, CMG and CAVA have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.50), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CMG | CAVA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -10.75% | -7.88% |
| CAGRi | -10.76% | -7.89% | |
| Volatilityi | 41.78% | 59.25% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.17 | 0.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.22 | 0.12 | |
| Max drawdowni | 33.47% | 37.61% | |
| Current drawdowni | 12.75% | 37.61% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.87% | 14.91% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.93% | 18.57% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 11.20% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.26% | 19.23% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -2.47% | +59.27% |
| CAGRi | -0.50% | +15.55% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.74% | 58.99% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.03 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.04 | 0.70 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.89% | 71.11% | |
| Current drawdowni | 46.08% | 59.73% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.98% | 31.74% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 27.34% | 38.46% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 16.63% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.26% | 25.51% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +346.30% | +59.27% |
| CAGRi | +16.14% | +15.55% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.19% | 58.99% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.47 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.69 | 0.70 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.89% | 71.11% | |
| Current drawdowni | 46.08% | 59.73% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.51% | 31.74% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.71% | 38.46% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 16.63% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.03% | 25.51% |
| Category | CMG | CAVA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | CAVA Group, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | Largest fast-casual restaurant chain in the US, serving Mexican-inspired bowls, burritos, tacos, and salads. Operates over 3,600 company-owned restaurants with a focus on real ingredients and high throughput. Pioneered the fast-casual category and serves as the benchmark for the segment. | Fast-casual Mediterranean restaurant chain offering customizable bowls, pitas, and salads with chef-driven recipes. Operates a vertically integrated model with proprietary dressings and dips also sold through grocery retail channels. |
| Investor focus | Same-store sales comps, digital sales mix, restaurant-level margins, new store openings, throughput improvement initiatives, and international expansion potential. | New restaurant openings and whitespace runway, same-restaurant sales growth, restaurant-level margins, and average unit volumes as a signal of brand demand. |
- Category-defining brand with over 3,600 locations, proven unit economics, and a long track record of positive comps
- Industry-leading digital sales infrastructure driving higher throughput and order accuracy
- Strong balance sheet with no debt and significant free cash flow funding buybacks and growth
- Fastest-growing restaurant IPO with strong unit economics and average unit volumes above $2.5 million
- Mediterranean cuisine category is large, underpenetrated, and appeals to health-conscious consumers across demographics
- Vertically integrated supply chain for proprietary dressings and dips provides margin control and brand moat
- Mature US footprint means same-store sales growth becomes harder to sustain at scale
- Premium valuation leaves little margin for error on quarterly comps or margin trends
- International expansion is nascent and unproven relative to the domestic business
- Premium valuation prices in years of execution with little margin for comp or margin disappointments
- Smaller store base means new market performance has outsized impact on aggregate metrics
- Must prove the concept scales nationally beyond early stronghold markets in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast
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