SHAK vs CAVA: Premium Burgers vs Mediterranean Fast-Casual Growth: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Shake Shack and CAVA are both premium fast-casual concepts with strong brands, but they are at different stages of maturity and growth. SHAK has a larger store base and international licensing business but has faced margin challenges from higher build costs. CAVA has fewer stores but stronger unit-level momentum and is attacking a less crowded cuisine category with a vertically integrated model.
This SHAK vs CAVA comparison contrasts a premium burger brand working to improve unit economics with a Mediterranean fast-casual concept riding an earlier and steeper growth curve. Both target the premium fast-casual consumer, but their categories, formats, and growth profiles differ meaningfully.
CAVA holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CAVA has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-7.81% vs -31.87%), though SHAK has the better forward P/E setup (49.56x vs 83.47x for CAVA). CAVA leads on both revenue growth (31.30%) and operating margin (7.62%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CAVA (+37.34%) than for SHAK (+18.91%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want a premium burger brand with strong consumer recognition and an international licensing runway
- Believe the drive-thru and smaller-format strategy will meaningfully improve unit economics and expand the addressable market
- Prefer a more established concept with over 500 locations and a longer operating history
- Value the margin upside from operational improvements after a period of investment-heavy expansion
- Want the steeper growth curve of an earlier-stage concept in a less crowded cuisine category
- Value higher average unit volumes and stronger restaurant-level margins as fundamental quality signals
- Believe Mediterranean fast-casual has a longer runway than premium burgers for national scale
- Are willing to accept premium valuation risk for a concept with best-in-class early unit economics
| Metric | SHAK | CAVA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 33.7 | 35.6 |
| AI ranki | #1946 | #1636 |
| Latest closei | $69.40 | $60.76 |
| 1M returni | -6.63% | -8.18% |
| 6M returni | -28.30% | -23.45% |
| 1Y returni | -31.87% | -7.81% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SHAK | CAVA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.81K (-31.9%) started 2025-09-04 | $9.21K (-7.9%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $8.06K (-19.4%) started 2021-09-07 | $15.93K (+59.3%) started 2023-06-16 |
| 10Y ago | $19.17K (+91.7%) started 2016-09-06 | $15.93K (+59.3%) started 2023-06-16 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SHAK | CAVA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $2.97B | $7.21B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 73.05 | 110.25 |
| Forward P/Ei | 49.56 | 83.47 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.24 | 5.25 |
| Analyst targeti | $82.52 | $84.79 |
| Target upsidei | +18.91% | +37.34% |
| Metric | SHAK | CAVA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 17.20% | 31.30% |
| Earnings growthi | -9.80% | 19.80% |
| EPS growthi | -9.80% | +19.80% |
| FCF margini | -2.69% | -0.05% |
| Operating margini | 5.07% | 7.62% |
| Profit margini | 2.56% | 4.82% |
| ROIC proxyi | 7.94% | 8.32% |
| Return on equityi | 7.94% | 8.32% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.66 | 1.75 |
| Debt/equityi | 166.58 | 61.90 |
| Current ratioi | 1.67 | 2.48 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.53 | 2.36 |
Over the past year, SHAK and CAVA have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.41), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SHAK | CAVA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -31.87% | -7.88% |
| CAGRi | -31.89% | -7.89% | |
| Volatilityi | 54.10% | 59.25% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.51 | 0.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.66 | 0.12 | |
| Max drawdowni | 50.00% | 37.61% | |
| Current drawdowni | 33.71% | 37.61% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 20.82% | 14.91% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.56% | 18.57% | |
| Max daily dropi | 28.26% | 11.20% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.79% | 19.23% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -19.43% | +59.27% |
| CAGRi | -4.24% | +15.55% | |
| Volatilityi | 51.91% | 58.99% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.09 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.13 | 0.70 | |
| Max drawdowni | 63.15% | 71.11% | |
| Current drawdowni | 51.14% | 59.73% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 27.96% | 31.74% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.46% | 38.46% | |
| Max daily dropi | 28.26% | 16.63% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.79% | 25.51% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +91.66% | +59.27% |
| CAGRi | +6.73% | +15.55% | |
| Volatilityi | 50.61% | 58.99% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.29 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.43 | 0.70 | |
| Max drawdowni | 70.89% | 71.11% | |
| Current drawdowni | 51.14% | 59.73% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.02% | 31.74% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 35.85% | 38.46% | |
| Max daily dropi | 28.26% | 16.63% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.79% | 25.51% |
| Category | SHAK | CAVA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Shake Shack Inc. | CAVA Group, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | Premium fast-casual burger chain known for its ShackBurger, crinkle-cut fries, and milkshakes. Operates over 500 company-owned and licensed locations across the US and internationally with a focus on high-quality ingredients and elevated hospitality. | Fast-casual Mediterranean restaurant chain offering customizable bowls, pitas, and salads with chef-driven recipes. Operates a vertically integrated model with proprietary dressings and dips also sold through grocery retail channels. |
| Investor focus | Same-Shack sales comps, new unit openings and payback periods, restaurant-level margins, digital sales mix, and the company's drive-thru and smaller-format expansion strategy. | New restaurant openings and whitespace runway, same-restaurant sales growth, restaurant-level margins, and average unit volumes as a signal of brand demand. |
- Strong brand with premium positioning and loyal customer base in urban and suburban markets
- Expanding into drive-thru and smaller formats to unlock new geographies and improve unit economics
- Growing international licensing business provides high-margin revenue with minimal capital investment
- Fastest-growing restaurant IPO with strong unit economics and average unit volumes above $2.5 million
- Mediterranean cuisine is a large, underpenetrated category with strong health and wellness tailwinds
- Vertically integrated supply chain provides margin control and creates a product-level brand moat through grocery distribution
- Higher build costs relative to peers have historically weighed on returns on invested capital
- Urban concentration creates exposure to foot traffic patterns and commercial real estate costs
- Premium pricing may face pressure in a value-conscious consumer environment
- Premium valuation requires sustained best-in-class execution with minimal tolerance for misses
- Smaller store base means single-market or single-quarter performance swings can move aggregate metrics
- Category awareness for Mediterranean fast-casual is still building versus established burger and Mexican concepts
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