TXRH vs SHAK Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
TXRH (Texas Roadhouse) and SHAK (Shake Shack) are both strongly branded restaurant growth companies but at different scales, price points, and segments — Texas Roadhouse is a large-cap casual dining steakhouse with 650+ locations, consistently exceptional same-store sales performance, and a value-oriented positioning that drives traffic regardless of economic conditions, while Shake Shack is a mid-cap premium fast casual burger chain with 500+ locations, higher-end pricing, expanding from urban to suburban markets.
TXRH vs SHAK is proven value-oriented steakhouse with exceptional same-store traffic performance (Texas Roadhouse's scratch-cook value positioning driving consistent industry-leading same-store sales and unit growth in the large and resilient casual dining steakhouse market) versus premium fast casual burger brand expanding its addressable market from urban flagships to suburban formats (Shake Shack's fine casual brand evolving beyond Danny Meyer's New York roots into suburban markets and international licensed revenue) — durable casual dining value category leader versus premium fast casual brand stretching its format.
TXRH holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TXRH leads on both 1-year return (-1.24%) and forward P/E quality (24.50x vs 39.12x for SHAK), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, SHAK is growing revenue faster (17.20%), while TXRH maintains the higher operating margin (8.51%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SHAK (+47.30%) than for TXRH (+14.25%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Value Texas Roadhouse's consistent industry-leading same-store traffic as evidence of genuine product-market fit — scratch cooking, generous portions, and below-steakhouse pricing create a loyal customer base that returns repeatedly regardless of economic conditions
- See Texas Roadhouse's unit growth runway (potential to grow from 650 to 800-900+ U.S. locations) as providing visible compound earnings growth through both unit addition and continued same-store sales growth
- Prefer the financial profile of a profitable, cash-generative casual dining company with dividend growth history rather than the margin improvement story required for Shake Shack's investment thesis
- Believe Shake Shack's premium brand positioning (Danny Meyer hospitality heritage, higher-quality ingredients, urban cool factor) will translate successfully to suburban markets through the new smaller-format Shacks with drive-through capability
- See Shake Shack's international licensed unit growth (airports, stadiums, international markets) as providing a high-margin revenue stream with limited incremental capital investment that will improve margins over time
- Are comfortable with Shake Shack's ongoing margin improvement journey — from current Shack-level margins in the 17-20% range toward the 20%+ target — in exchange for exposure to a premium brand with significant unit count growth potential from a smaller base than Texas Roadhouse
| Metric | TXRH | SHAK |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 47.8 | 33.3 |
| AI ranki | #581 | #1938 |
| Latest closei | $159.75 | $55.55 |
| 1M returni | -21.65% | -23.84% |
| 6M returni | -0.27% | -31.69% |
| 1Y returni | -1.24% | -41.04% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TXRH | SHAK |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.8K (-2.0%) started 2025-09-25 | $5.9K (-41.0%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $16.72K (+67.2%) started 2021-09-27 | $6.63K (-33.7%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $38.49K (+284.9%) started 2016-09-26 | $15.71K (+57.1%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TXRH | SHAK |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $12.53B | $2.35B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 30.54 | 57.77 |
| Forward P/Ei | 24.50 | 39.12 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.16 | 1.86 |
| Analyst targeti | $218.09 | $80.84 |
| Target upsidei | +14.25% | +47.30% |
| Metric | TXRH | SHAK |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 11.10% | 17.20% |
| Earnings growthi | -0.50% | -9.80% |
| EPS growthi | -0.50% | -9.80% |
| FCF margini | +3.79% | -2.69% |
| Operating margini | 8.51% | 5.07% |
| Profit margini | 6.63% | 2.56% |
| ROIC proxyi | 27.71% | 7.94% |
| Return on equityi | 27.71% | 7.94% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.57% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 45.76% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 0.80 | 1.66 |
| Debt/equityi | 68.84 | 166.58 |
| Current ratioi | 0.46 | 1.67 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.35 | 1.53 |
Over the past year, TXRH and SHAK have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.35), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TXRH | SHAK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -2.00% | -41.04% |
| CAGRi | -2.00% | -41.06% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.73% | 55.04% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.06 | -0.75 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.10 | -0.96 | |
| Max drawdowni | 25.45% | 50.00% | |
| Current drawdowni | 25.45% | 46.94% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.71% | 20.42% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.90% | 26.53% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.32% | 28.26% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.56% | 33.79% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +67.24% | -33.73% |
| CAGRi | +10.85% | -7.91% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.50% | 52.11% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.34 | 0.02 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.51 | 0.02 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.31% | 63.15% | |
| Current drawdowni | 25.45% | 60.89% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.85% | 28.52% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.25% | 33.02% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.97% | 28.26% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.97% | 33.79% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +284.94% | +57.10% |
| CAGRi | +14.44% | +4.62% | |
| Volatilityi | 35.51% | 50.75% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.43 | 0.25 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.64 | 0.37 | |
| Max drawdowni | 59.55% | 70.89% | |
| Current drawdowni | 25.45% | 60.89% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.20% | 30.28% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.78% | 36.10% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.30% | 28.26% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 29.18% | 33.79% |
| Category | TXRH | SHAK |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | Shake Shack Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | Texas Roadhouse is a casual dining steakhouse chain offering hand-cut steaks, fall-off-the-bone ribs, grilled chicken, and made-from-scratch sides including complimentary rolls with cinnamon butter for all guests waiting for their meal. Texas Roadhouse is known for exceptional value — steaks at prices far below comparable quality at other steakhouses (a 6 oz. USDA Choice sirloin for under $20 in an era of $30-50+ steakhouse prices); large portions, energetic atmosphere with country music and peanut shells on the floor, and consistently high food quality. Texas Roadhouse operates approximately 650+ company-owned and franchised locations across the U.S. and internationally. Texas Roadhouse was founded by W. Kent Taylor in 1993 in Clarksville, Indiana. | Shake Shack is a premium fast casual burger restaurant chain founded in 2004 by restaurateur Danny Meyer, originally as a hot dog cart in Madison Square Park in New York City. Shake Shack serves custom-blend Angus beef burgers, crinkle-cut fries, milkshakes made with custard (not ice cream), hot dogs, and chicken sandwiches. Shake Shack's burgers are priced at premium fast casual prices ($8-12 for a burger) reflecting higher quality ingredients and a more upscale urban dining experience. Shake Shack operates approximately 500+ company-owned locations across the U.S. and licensed internationally (airports, stadiums, international markets). Shake Shack's domestic unit growth has expanded beyond its urban flagship origins into suburban locations. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Texas Roadhouse's comparable restaurant sales (same-store sales growth — driven by traffic and pricing), new restaurant openings (unit development), restaurant-level profit margins, and the company's ability to manage food and labor cost inflation while maintaining its value positioning for guests. | Investors track Shake Shack's system sales and same-Shack sales growth, new domestic company-operated Shack openings, licensed (international and domestic non-traditional) location revenue, Shack-level profit margins (a key focus area as Shake Shack targets 20%+ Shack-level margins), and the comparison between urban vs. suburban location performance. |
- Texas Roadhouse's value positioning creates traffic resilience across economic cycles — Texas Roadhouse offers USDA Choice steaks at prices approximately 30-40% below standalone steakhouses; in economic downturns, consumers downgrade from higher-priced steakhouses to Texas Roadhouse rather than giving up steak dining entirely; this positions Roadhouse as both a 'trade-down' destination and an everyday value dining option
- Made-from-scratch menu execution is rare in casual dining scale and creates differentiation — Texas Roadhouse makes bread, rolls, side dishes, and desserts from scratch in each restaurant; competing chains (Applebee's, Chili's) rely more on prepared or frozen ingredients; scratch cooking requires significant kitchen labor but creates meaningfully better food quality that drives traffic and word-of-mouth
- Texas Roadhouse has maintained industry-leading traffic and same-store sales growth for over a decade — TXRH has consistently delivered positive comparable restaurant traffic in periods when casual dining peers (Applebee's, Chili's) experienced traffic declines; strong execution culture (corporate headquarters in Louisville, Kentucky — 'Legendary Food, Legendary Service') drives customer satisfaction
- Shake Shack's premium brand positioning allows pricing power above standard fast casual — Shake Shack's 'fine casual' positioning (Danny Meyer's upscale hospitality background created a differentiated service and ambiance) enables pricing $3-5 above standard fast casual; burgers and shakes are priced at a premium that the brand's quality supports
- Licensed revenue (airports, stadiums, international markets) provides high-margin revenue with no capital investment — Shake Shack licenses its brand to operators in airports, sports venues, and international markets; these operators pay Shake Shack a royalty (typically 6-8% of sales) with no capital cost to Shake Shack; high-margin licensed revenue diversifies income
- Suburban expansion (smaller format Shacks in strip malls and suburban locations) is opening a much larger addressable market — Shake Shack's original urban flagship format was limited to dense urban markets; smaller suburban formats with drive-through or walk-up windows allow Shake Shack to open in markets (suburban Texas, suburban Southeast) where a traditional Shake Shack format wouldn't work
- Food and labor cost inflation is Texas Roadhouse's primary margin risk — TXRH's model depends on controlling food costs (beef prices are volatile) and labor costs in a tight labor market; price increases to offset these costs must be managed carefully to preserve the value positioning that drives traffic
- Unit development requires finding appropriate real estate as the brand matures — Texas Roadhouse has penetrated most major U.S. markets; finding high-quality sites for new restaurants without cannibalizing existing locations or taking lower-quality real estate is an ongoing challenge
- Menu price increases may eventually strain the value perception — Texas Roadhouse has raised menu prices in recent years to offset inflation; if prices rise too much relative to consumer expectations of value (steak under $20), the core traffic driver could weaken
- Shake Shack's Shack-level margins are below casual dining peers — Shake Shack targets 20%+ Shack-level profit margins but has been below this target; labor costs in urban markets (where Shake Shack's flagship locations are concentrated) are high; reaching consistently strong margins is a persistent execution challenge
- Fast casual burger segment is intensely competitive — Five Guys, Smashburger, In-N-Out (regional), BurgerFi, and others compete in the premium fast casual burger space; McDonald's, Wendy's, and Burger King are constantly improving quality to close the gap from below; Shake Shack must continuously innovate and execute to justify its premium
- Suburban expansion has different economics than urban flagships — urban flagship Shacks benefit from high pedestrian traffic; suburban locations may require drive-throughs for comparable volume; the capital cost and operational model for suburban Shacks differs from urban; execution of this format transition is an important investor watch item
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