BJRI vs TXRH Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
BJRI (BJ's Restaurants) and TXRH (Texas Roadhouse) are both casual dining chains competing for family and group dining occasions, but with different positioning — BJ's offers a brewhouse concept with craft beer and a broad menu in large-format sports bar settings, while Texas Roadhouse delivers exceptional value on scratch-cooked steaks and sides in an energetic dining environment. Texas Roadhouse has consistently outperformed BJ's on traffic growth and restaurant-level margins.
BJRI vs TXRH is brewhouse casual dining with craft beer identity and Pizookie brand moments (BJ's large-format restaurant combining family dining with sports bar beer culture — competing on occasion breadth rather than food specialization) versus value-oriented scratch-cook steakhouse with industry-leading traffic performance (Texas Roadhouse's hand-cut steak value proposition, butcher program, and complimentary rolls driving consistent same-store sales growth through economic cycles) — broad casual dining occasion versus focused steak value dominance.
BJRI holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. BJRI leads on both 1-year return (+100.37%) and forward P/E quality (22.92x vs 24.50x for TXRH), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. TXRH leads on both revenue growth (11.10%) and operating margin (8.51%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BJRI (+20.25%) than for TXRH (+14.25%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- See BJ's brewhouse positioning as capturing an incremental dining occasion (sports watching + beer + food) that pure food-focused casual dining chains don't address
- Value BJ's Sun Belt geographic concentration as benefiting from population growth in California, Texas, and Florida
- Believe BJ's unit growth opportunity (from ~210 to potentially 400+ locations) provides a multi-year development pipeline at lower current valuation than TXRH
- Value TXRH's industry-leading comparable restaurant traffic as evidence of a durable competitive advantage in value-oriented casual dining that compounds into superior long-term returns
- Appreciate the scratch-cooking differentiation and butcher program as genuinely difficult-to-replicate competitive moats that protect against concept commoditization
- Want a casual dining operator with dividend growth history and proven recession resilience from the value steak positioning that attracts both trade-down (from steakhouses) and trade-up (from QSR) consumers
| Metric | BJRI | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 36.7 | 47.8 |
| AI ranki | #1472 | #581 |
| Latest closei | $60.13 | $159.75 |
| 1M returni | -9.99% | -21.65% |
| 6M returni | +73.09% | -0.27% |
| 1Y returni | +100.37% | -1.24% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | BJRI | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $20.04K (+100.4%) started 2025-09-25 | $9.8K (-2.0%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $13.3K (+33.0%) started 2021-09-27 | $16.72K (+67.2%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $17.15K (+71.5%) started 2016-09-26 | $38.49K (+284.9%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | BJRI | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $1.33B | $12.53B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 33.16 | 30.54 |
| Forward P/Ei | 22.92 | 24.50 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.21 | 2.16 |
| Analyst targeti | $75.38 | $218.09 |
| Target upsidei | +20.25% | +14.25% |
| Metric | BJRI | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 6.40% | 11.10% |
| Earnings growthi | -11.30% | -0.50% |
| EPS growthi | -11.30% | -0.50% |
| FCF margini | +3.45% | +3.79% |
| Operating margini | 5.01% | 8.51% |
| Profit margini | 2.86% | 6.63% |
| ROIC proxyi | 10.44% | 27.71% |
| Return on equityi | 10.44% | 27.71% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 1.57% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 45.76% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.32 | 0.80 |
| Debt/equityi | 109.38 | 68.84 |
| Current ratioi | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.17 | 0.35 |
Over the past year, BJRI and TXRH have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.44), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | BJRI | TXRH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +100.37% | -2.00% |
| CAGRi | +100.46% | -2.00% | |
| Volatilityi | 43.90% | 30.73% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.70 | -0.06 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.89 | -0.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 26.55% | 25.45% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.03% | 25.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.80% | 7.71% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.96% | 9.90% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.96% | 6.32% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.99% | 10.56% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +33.03% | +67.24% |
| CAGRi | +5.88% | +10.85% | |
| Volatilityi | 46.47% | 30.50% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.26 | 0.34 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.39 | 0.51 | |
| Max drawdowni | 54.85% | 27.31% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.03% | 25.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 26.21% | 8.85% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 28.82% | 11.25% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.39% | 14.97% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.80% | 24.97% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +66.71% | +284.94% |
| CAGRi | +5.25% | +14.44% | |
| Volatilityi | 54.04% | 35.51% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.29 | 0.43 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.42 | 0.64 | |
| Max drawdowni | 91.21% | 59.55% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.16% | 25.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 42.37% | 12.20% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 47.21% | 15.78% | |
| Max daily dropi | 38.19% | 15.30% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 69.42% | 29.18% |
| Category | BJRI | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| Company | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | Texas Roadhouse, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | BJ's Restaurants operates BJ's Restaurant & Brewhouse, a casual dining chain known for its broad menu combining American casual dining food (burgers, pasta, pizza, salads, entrees) with an extensive craft beer selection brewed in-house or sourced from craft breweries. BJ's is particularly famous for its Pizookie — a deep-dish pizza-sized cookie served hot in a skillet with ice cream on top. BJ's restaurants are large-format (typically 7,000-8,000 sq ft, 250+ seats) and offer a sports bar atmosphere with multiple large-screen TVs alongside family dining. BJ's operates approximately 210+ locations concentrated in California, Texas, Florida, and other Sun Belt states. | Texas Roadhouse operates casual dining steakhouses offering hand-cut steaks (USDA Choice, cut in-house by butchers at each location), fall-off-the-bone ribs, grilled chicken, seafood, and made-from-scratch sides. Complimentary fresh-baked rolls with cinnamon butter served to all guests create a beloved brand experience. Texas Roadhouse's prices deliver USDA Choice steak at price points 30-40% below competing steakhouses, creating exceptional perceived value. The chain operates approximately 650+ locations with a strong presence in suburban and mid-size U.S. markets. |
| Investor focus | Investors track BJ's comparable restaurant sales (traffic and average check), restaurant-level operating margins, new restaurant openings, menu innovation (particularly the beer program and seasonal specials), and off-premise sales (delivery and takeout as a percentage of total sales). | Investors track comparable restaurant sales (consistently above-industry due to strong traffic), restaurant-level profit margins, new unit development, food cost management (beef cost volatility), and the sustainability of Texas Roadhouse's value positioning amid menu price increases. |
- BJ's brewhouse model differentiates from pure casual dining by adding a significant craft beer revenue stream — on-premise craft beer sales generate higher margins than food; the brewhouse identity creates a distinctive positioning between bar and casual dining
- Pizookie and signature menu items create strong brand recall and repeat visits — BJ's Pizookie is one of the most recognizable dessert items in casual dining; customers plan visits specifically for the Pizookie; signature items create occasions that drive traffic
- Large-format restaurant with TV screens captures sports-watching occasions beyond dinner dining — BJ's captures game-watching groups who want food and beer in a casual setting; these incremental occasions (sports events, playoff games) drive weekend bar traffic
- Value positioning in steak dining creates compelling reason to choose TXRH over higher-priced alternatives — hand-cut USDA Choice steak for $18-22 versus $40+ at traditional steakhouses creates exceptional value perception; consumers trade down to TXRH in economic uncertainty while trading up from fast casual in good times
- Scratch cooking (butchers, made-from-scratch sides) creates genuine food quality differentiation rare at casual dining scale — most casual dining chains use prepared ingredients; TXRH employs actual butchers at each location; the food quality supports strong word-of-mouth and repeat traffic
- Industry-leading same-store sales performance demonstrates durable brand strength — TXRH has delivered positive comparable restaurant traffic growth in most years, even when casual dining peers (Applebee's, Chili's, Red Lobster) declined; execution consistency creates a virtuous traffic cycle
- BJ's competes in an intensely competitive casual dining environment with well-capitalized operators — Applebee's, Chili's (Brinker), Texas Roadhouse, Darden brands all compete for the same consumer occasion; casual dining has faced structural traffic headwinds from fast casual and delivery
- Craft beer margins face competitive pressure as craft beer becomes widely available at retail — consumers can purchase craft beer at Whole Foods or Total Wine; the incremental reason to visit a brewhouse for craft beer is reduced when great beer is available everywhere
- Restaurant-level margins at BJ's have been below industry leaders — BJ's struggles to achieve the restaurant-level margins of Texas Roadhouse due to higher labor in large-format restaurants and a more complex menu requiring more kitchen staff
- Food cost inflation, particularly beef, is the primary margin risk — TXRH's value positioning depends on maintaining beef quality at competitive prices; beef price spikes require difficult choices between absorbing margin pressure or raising prices that threaten the value proposition
- Menu price increases to offset inflation may eventually erode the value positioning that drives traffic — TXRH has raised prices in recent years; continued increases could narrow the gap between TXRH prices and steakhouse alternatives
- Real estate constraints for new unit development as the brand matures — TXRH has opened restaurants in most major and mid-size U.S. markets; finding high-quality new sites without cannibalizing existing restaurants is progressively harder
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