SHAK vs TXRH Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Shake Shack and Texas Roadhouse both operate in the mid-scale restaurant space, but Shake Shack is a fast-casual premium burger concept still in an earlier phase of unit growth and margin maturation, while Texas Roadhouse is a more established casual dining steakhouse chain with a longer track record of consistent same-restaurant sales and traffic performance.
Shake Shack offers earlier-stage growth potential tied to continued new unit expansion and margin maturation, while Texas Roadhouse offers a more established, consistent same-restaurant sales track record within the casual dining steakhouse category. Consider whether you prefer Shake Shack's growth-stage fast-casual story or Texas Roadhouse's established casual dining consistency.
TXRH holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TXRH leads on both 1-year return (-5.54%) and forward P/E quality (24.50x vs 45.88x for SHAK), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, SHAK is growing revenue faster (17.20%), while TXRH maintains the higher operating margin (8.51%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SHAK (+24.57%) than for TXRH (+14.25%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a premium fast-casual burger concept still early in its multi-year unit growth runway
- Believe continued new restaurant openings domestically and internationally will drive sustained revenue growth
- Are comfortable with the higher volatility of a smaller-scale restaurant chain still maturing its margin profile
- Value Shake Shack's premium brand positioning and growing digital ordering adoption
- Want exposure to an established casual dining chain with a consistent same-restaurant sales and traffic track record
- Value Texas Roadhouse's differentiated steakhouse positioning and reputation for value pricing
- Are comfortable with the input cost sensitivity that comes with a steak-focused menu
- Prefer a more measured, established growth profile over an earlier-stage fast-casual growth story
| Metric | SHAK | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 34.1 | 48.1 |
| AI ranki | #1876 | #578 |
| Latest closei | $64.90 | $165.82 |
| 1M returni | +16.83% | +3.80% |
| 3M returni | +5.41% | -17.52% |
| 6M returni | -36.03% | +5.04% |
| 1Y returni | -29.34% | -5.54% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SHAK | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.95K (-30.5%) started 2025-10-27 | $9.51K (-4.9%) started 2025-10-27 |
| 5Y ago | $9.17K (-8.3%) started 2021-10-26 | $18.74K (+87.4%) started 2021-10-27 |
| 10Y ago | $20.67K (+106.7%) started 2016-10-26 | $42.25K (+322.5%) started 2016-10-27 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SHAK | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $2.79B | $12.53B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 68.59 | 30.54 |
| Forward P/Ei | 45.88 | 24.50 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.13 | 2.16 |
| Analyst targeti | $81.17 | $218.09 |
| Target upsidei | +24.57% | +14.25% |
| Metric | SHAK | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 17.20% | 11.10% |
| Earnings growthi | -9.80% | -0.50% |
| EPS growthi | -9.80% | -0.50% |
| FCF margini | -2.69% | +3.79% |
| Operating margini | 5.07% | 8.51% |
| Profit margini | 2.56% | 6.63% |
| ROIC proxyi | 7.94% | 27.71% |
| Return on equityi | 7.94% | 27.71% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.00% | 1.57% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 45.76% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.68 | 0.80 |
| Debt/equityi | 166.58 | 68.84 |
| Current ratioi | 1.67 | 0.46 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.53 | 0.35 |
Over the past year, SHAK and TXRH have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.34), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SHAK | TXRH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -30.48% | -4.87% |
| CAGRi | -30.56% | -4.89% | |
| Volatilityi | 55.40% | 30.80% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.45 | -0.16 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.58 | -0.24 | |
| Max drawdowni | 50.00% | 27.13% | |
| Current drawdowni | 38.01% | 22.62% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 23.21% | 9.32% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 28.66% | 11.93% | |
| Max daily dropi | 28.26% | 6.32% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.79% | 10.56% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -8.27% | +87.41% |
| CAGRi | -1.71% | +13.39% | |
| Volatilityi | 52.17% | 30.52% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.14 | 0.42 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.21 | 0.62 | |
| Max drawdowni | 63.15% | 27.31% | |
| Current drawdowni | 54.31% | 22.62% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 29.20% | 9.16% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 33.71% | 11.64% | |
| Max daily dropi | 28.26% | 14.97% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.79% | 24.97% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +106.69% | +322.47% |
| CAGRi | +7.53% | +15.50% | |
| Volatilityi | 50.84% | 35.55% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.31 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.45 | 0.68 | |
| Max drawdowni | 70.89% | 59.55% | |
| Current drawdowni | 54.31% | 22.62% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.64% | 12.34% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 36.43% | 15.92% | |
| Max daily dropi | 28.26% | 15.30% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.79% | 29.18% |
| Category | SHAK | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Shake Shack Inc. | Texas Roadhouse, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | A fast-casual restaurant chain known for premium burgers, chicken sandwiches, and shakes, operating both company-owned and licensed locations domestically and internationally, with continued new unit growth as a key part of its strategy. | A casual dining restaurant chain specializing in steaks and Western-themed dining, operating company-owned and franchised locations primarily across the United States, known for value pricing and consistent guest traffic. |
| Investor focus | Same-restaurant sales growth, new unit opening pace and returns, and margin improvement as the store base matures. | Same-restaurant sales and traffic trends, new restaurant unit growth, and margin management amid beef and labor cost fluctuations. |
- Premium brand positioning within the fast-casual burger category supports pricing power relative to traditional fast food
- Continued new unit growth domestically and internationally provides a multi-year expansion runway
- Growing digital ordering and loyalty program adoption supports off-premise sales growth
- Consistent same-restaurant sales and traffic performance built on value pricing and a differentiated steakhouse experience
- Established franchise and company-operated restaurant base provides steady, diversified revenue across many markets
- Strong reputation for food quality and value has supported customer loyalty and repeat visitation over time
- Smaller scale than more established restaurant chains means individual unit performance has an outsized impact on results
- Margin improvement depends on achieving greater operating leverage as newer restaurants mature
- Faces intense competition from both traditional fast food and other premium fast-casual burger concepts
- Profitability is sensitive to beef and other input cost fluctuations given its steak-focused menu
- Casual dining format carries higher labor cost exposure compared to fast-casual or quick-service models
- Unit growth is more measured than fast-casual peers, given the larger footprint and higher build-out cost of its restaurants
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