SHAK vs TXRH Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Shake Shack and Texas Roadhouse both operate in the mid-scale restaurant space, but Shake Shack is a fast-casual premium burger concept still in an earlier phase of unit growth and margin maturation, while Texas Roadhouse is a more established casual dining steakhouse chain with a longer track record of consistent same-restaurant sales and traffic performance.
Shake Shack offers earlier-stage growth potential tied to continued new unit expansion and margin maturation, while Texas Roadhouse offers a more established, consistent same-restaurant sales track record within the casual dining steakhouse category. Consider whether you prefer Shake Shack's growth-stage fast-casual story or Texas Roadhouse's established casual dining consistency.
TXRH holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TXRH leads on both 1-year return (+12.26%) and forward P/E quality (24.50x vs 49.56x for SHAK), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, SHAK is growing revenue faster (17.20%), while TXRH maintains the higher operating margin (8.51%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SHAK (+18.91%) than for TXRH (+14.25%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a premium fast-casual burger concept still early in its multi-year unit growth runway
- Believe continued new restaurant openings domestically and internationally will drive sustained revenue growth
- Are comfortable with the higher volatility of a smaller-scale restaurant chain still maturing its margin profile
- Value Shake Shack's premium brand positioning and growing digital ordering adoption
- Want exposure to an established casual dining chain with a consistent same-restaurant sales and traffic track record
- Value Texas Roadhouse's differentiated steakhouse positioning and reputation for value pricing
- Are comfortable with the input cost sensitivity that comes with a steak-focused menu
- Prefer a more measured, established growth profile over an earlier-stage fast-casual growth story
| Metric | SHAK | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 33.7 | 48.1 |
| AI ranki | #1946 | #608 |
| Latest closei | $69.40 | $189.56 |
| 1M returni | -6.63% | -8.87% |
| 6M returni | -28.30% | +9.89% |
| 1Y returni | -31.87% | +12.26% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SHAK | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.81K (-31.9%) started 2025-09-04 | $11.32K (+13.2%) started 2025-09-08 |
| 5Y ago | $8.06K (-19.4%) started 2021-09-07 | $20.35K (+103.5%) started 2021-09-08 |
| 10Y ago | $19.17K (+91.7%) started 2016-09-06 | $43.27K (+332.7%) started 2016-09-08 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SHAK | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $2.97B | $12.53B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 73.05 | 30.54 |
| Forward P/Ei | 49.56 | 24.50 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.24 | 2.16 |
| Analyst targeti | $82.52 | $218.09 |
| Target upsidei | +18.91% | +14.25% |
| Metric | SHAK | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 17.20% | 11.10% |
| Earnings growthi | -9.80% | -0.50% |
| EPS growthi | -9.80% | -0.50% |
| FCF margini | -2.69% | +3.79% |
| Operating margini | 5.07% | 8.51% |
| Profit margini | 2.56% | 6.63% |
| ROIC proxyi | 7.94% | 27.71% |
| Return on equityi | 7.94% | 27.71% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 1.57% |
| Betai | 1.66 | 0.80 |
| Debt/equityi | 166.58 | 68.84 |
| Current ratioi | 1.67 | 0.46 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.53 | 0.35 |
Over the past year, SHAK and TXRH have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.32), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SHAK | TXRH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -31.87% | +13.18% |
| CAGRi | -31.89% | +13.21% | |
| Volatilityi | 54.10% | 29.83% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.51 | 0.41 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.66 | 0.68 | |
| Max drawdowni | 50.00% | 19.96% | |
| Current drawdowni | 33.71% | 11.54% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 20.82% | 6.82% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.56% | 8.72% | |
| Max daily dropi | 28.26% | 4.26% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.79% | 10.56% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -19.43% | +103.49% |
| CAGRi | -4.24% | +15.27% | |
| Volatilityi | 51.91% | 30.34% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.09 | 0.47 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.13 | 0.71 | |
| Max drawdowni | 63.15% | 27.31% | |
| Current drawdowni | 51.14% | 11.54% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 27.96% | 8.65% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.46% | 11.05% | |
| Max daily dropi | 28.26% | 14.97% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.79% | 24.97% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +91.66% | +332.68% |
| CAGRi | +6.73% | +15.78% | |
| Volatilityi | 50.61% | 35.46% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.29 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.43 | 0.69 | |
| Max drawdowni | 70.89% | 59.55% | |
| Current drawdowni | 51.14% | 11.54% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.02% | 12.17% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 35.85% | 15.74% | |
| Max daily dropi | 28.26% | 15.30% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.79% | 29.18% |
| Category | SHAK | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Shake Shack Inc. | Texas Roadhouse, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | A fast-casual restaurant chain known for premium burgers, chicken sandwiches, and shakes, operating both company-owned and licensed locations domestically and internationally, with continued new unit growth as a key part of its strategy. | A casual dining restaurant chain specializing in steaks and Western-themed dining, operating company-owned and franchised locations primarily across the United States, known for value pricing and consistent guest traffic. |
| Investor focus | Same-restaurant sales growth, new unit opening pace and returns, and margin improvement as the store base matures. | Same-restaurant sales and traffic trends, new restaurant unit growth, and margin management amid beef and labor cost fluctuations. |
- Premium brand positioning within the fast-casual burger category supports pricing power relative to traditional fast food
- Continued new unit growth domestically and internationally provides a multi-year expansion runway
- Growing digital ordering and loyalty program adoption supports off-premise sales growth
- Consistent same-restaurant sales and traffic performance built on value pricing and a differentiated steakhouse experience
- Established franchise and company-operated restaurant base provides steady, diversified revenue across many markets
- Strong reputation for food quality and value has supported customer loyalty and repeat visitation over time
- Smaller scale than more established restaurant chains means individual unit performance has an outsized impact on results
- Margin improvement depends on achieving greater operating leverage as newer restaurants mature
- Faces intense competition from both traditional fast food and other premium fast-casual burger concepts
- Profitability is sensitive to beef and other input cost fluctuations given its steak-focused menu
- Casual dining format carries higher labor cost exposure compared to fast-casual or quick-service models
- Unit growth is more measured than fast-casual peers, given the larger footprint and higher build-out cost of its restaurants
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